The Packers have not looked great as of late, but I think people are putting too much stock in the Bears beating the Giants, Lions and quickly-collapsing Cowboys -- two of them in Chicago. Green Bay is at home, and while cold, it should be a snow-free day allowing Aaron Rodgers plenty of opportunity to throw the ball. Still, Aaron Jones is where I think the Packers have their greatest advantage. Definitely comfortable with Green Bay covering in this spot.

The Packers have covered 13 of the last 18 in the rivalry while the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their five road games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. At home, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is completing 65 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per toss with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Under Matt Nagy, the Bears are 11-2 in the second half of the season. This week they're getting Akiem Hicks back, which is huge. Chicago has its mojo back and is playing a Packers team that hasn't impressed lately. Grab the points.

What two better teams for a game in which temperatures are expected to top out in the teens? Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky is throwing more these days while Green Bay counterpart Aaron Rodgers always throws, but catching those passes will be problematic in the ultra-cold conditions. The Under has been the Packers’ place in four of their last five games. The Bears went Under five times in a row before victimizing the soft defenses of Detroit and Dallas over the last two weeks.

This is a big game for Green Bay and the Packers will be up for it. They're facing a bitter division rival at home. They've won three in a row over the Bears at Lambeau Field, two of those convincingly. Aaron Jones will be key. The Bears are hot but it has come against a soft schedule. Lay the points.

This line has steamed toward the Bears in the early going, and it's gotten to a point now where I think there's value on the Packers. They're typically a great home team in this part of the year, going 21-5 straight up since 2009, with Aaron Rodgers playing a full game in just two of those five losses. The Packers defense has enough talent to limit a suddenly solid Mitchell Trubisky, and the Packers run game should provide enough production to get the score into the 20s. I think the Packers win by six or seven.