This is a difficult call as the 49ers are clearly getting a lot of love for their hard-fought effort against the Ravens last week. And while defense travels, it does seem to struggle against the Saints in the Superdome. This is a long distance to travel for San Francisco, and it does not help that it is about to go up against one of the NFL's top teams. I would likely side with SF if I had the full field goal, but this is a meager spread for the talented Saints to cover at home.

This is a huge game in the NFC for No. 1 seeding in the playoffs, and while the Saints have failed to cover the spread in their last two home games, those are the only non-covers in their last 10 games overall. Those last two spreads at home were -10 and -14. New Orleans at home laying less than a field goal against anyone should be attractive. I’m on the Saints.

Drew Brees has gotten to face a lot of bad defenses since his return from injury, but this is going to be his first real test. Unfortunately, he's going to have to face it with an ailing offense line, not great news when you have to face this ferocious 49ers front. It'll be on the Saints defense to keep them in this game, but they rank just 15th in points per drive and 20th in red zone percentage, numbers that may not be good enough against a San Francisco offense that has played well this season. The passing game ranks fourth in yards per attempt and the rushing attack has three 200-yard efforts this year. 49ers bounce back with a win.

I don't think Drew Brees is playing that well, and the left side of his offensive line won't be able to block the 49ers. They're just a better team right now. The turf will accentuate their speed. The Saints have one weakness in the secondary, Eli Apple, and Kyle Shanahan can exploit him.

As we saw on Sunday against Baltimore, defense travels, and the 49ers have one of the best in the NFL. That's why I'm confident they will be able to cover the spread in a tough road environment against a Saints team that is good, but has benefited from playing in one of the weakest divisions in the league. Drew Brees of 2019 isn't the Brees of old and will have problems with the 49ers' pass rush. I like the points, but I don't hate the San Francisco money line either.

Under normal circumstances, San Francisco might be the play. But the 49ers are reeling from a crushing defeat three time zones away, have flown to Tampa for a week’s practice and then head to New Orleans. An odd agenda, for sure. The Saints will be rested after last playing on Thanksgiving. They are more balanced than the 49ers and are tied for eighth in yards per play on both offense and defense.