Some overreaction here to last week's results, which saw the Colts bounce back under Jacoby Brissett and the Texans get absolutely worked by the Ravens. Back at home in a must-win game, Houston should come through behind Deshaun Watson & Co. I don't see Indy running nearly as well on it as Baltimore did (particularly without Marlon Mack), and the Texans should pull ahead for good in the second half for a touchdown victory.

There are a lot of injuries on both sides, but I trust Frank Reich in a game that could decide the division. Indy tends to play every game close and hasn't lost by more than a TD all season, so the 3.5 could come into play. Pierre Desir, one of the few corners who's been able to slow DeAndre Hopkins, will reportedly play for the first time in five games. The Colts (28-8 vs. Houston all-time while winning five of the last six) also may have T.Y. Hilton, a game-time decision, against the Texans' awful secondary. Grab the points.

The Texans certainly should have some motivation to bounce back from the 41-7 pounding they took at Baltimore last week, but the Colts have had their number, winning and covering the last three meetings -- including two in Houston. The angle that perfectly describes this matchup is the Texans going 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus winning teams while the Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 such contests. I’m on the Colts.

We have a huge game in the AFC South this week between the Colts and Texans. Indianapolis was able to get Jacoby Brissett back last week against Jacksonville, and he made all of the difference for them in that win. Houston is coming off of a beatdown at the hands of Baltimore and will be looking to regain control of the division.

The Texans' defense got run all over by the Ravens in their Week 11 shellacking, but they had done a great job defending the run before that game, holding seven straight opponents under 100 rushing yards. I'm willing to chalk that failure up to the unique task of trying to slow down Lamar Jackson. They should do a better job against a Colts team missing Marlon Mack, and the Colts passing offense hasn't done much to inspire hope that they can go blow for blow with Deshaun Watson. We're getting value on the Texans on this line due to Sunday's results, and as they're the more desperate team after losing to the Colts a few weeks ago. I think they get it done.