It's clear the public sentiment is on the Patriots here, which has boosted the line a point. Unfortunately for me, I'm picking late and New England happens to be the right side. Bill Belichick is 40-18 ATS coming off a bye, and the Pats are 6-3 ATS this season. Only once this year has New England failed to cover this many points in a game, and it was the last time we saw it in the loss to Baltimore. Miles Sanders getting additional touches against the Pats vulnerable run defense does scare me, but I expect Belichick's game plan is to stop the run and let Carson Wentz try to beat him with limited weapons. Side with the Pats.

There are a bunch of reasons to think this is a good spot for the Patriots, from a 20-9 ATS run off a loss to a 9-2 ATS run on the road off a bye, to Bill Belichick looking for revenge after getting his lunch money stolen in the Super Bowl. But I'm going to fade the public and play the team I feel has value on this line in the Eagles. They've been getting healthier, and I think they can have some success slowing a Patriots offense that hasn't looked great this year. Carson Wentz will have to avoid turnovers against an opportunistic defense, but if that happens, Philly covers.

Philly’s hopes for an upset are dampened by a dire running back situation. Starter Jordan Howard (stinger) is iffy, and versatile Darren Sproles (hip) is out for the season after a midweek injury. The Eagles were reportedly set to sign Jay Ajayi, who might play after a single practice, and are poised to start rookie Miles Sanders. That's hardly an ideal situation against New England’s masterful defense. The old saw about Bill Belichick’s advantage with an extra week to prepare is legit; the Patriots have covered after five straight byes. Take New England.

Not only are the Eagles going against the Patriots with the Pats coming off a bye, but the Pats are also coming off a loss. That's not great news for the Eagles! The Pats have always been monsters against the spread under Bill Belichick, but since 2005 the Pats are 36-16 ATS off a loss as well as 14-9-1 ATS coming off a bye. In other words, the Eagles are catching New England at the wrong time.

Bill Belichick is so tough coming off a bye, and this is a double revenge game for the Patriots. People are starting to say Eagles coach Doug Pederson has Belichick's number -- that's pretty dangerous talk. Tom Brady is 11-3 straight-up coming off a bye. He's got Mohamed Sanu to go with Julian Edelman and James White. And Brady has thrown for more yardage than Carson Wentz. New England's secondary will make it real tough on Wentz.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks, with the Patriots stewing over their embarrassing loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia doesn't challenge the Patriots defense in the same way the Ravens did. Where the Eagles have a shot is working their tight ends and newfound run game into the mix early. Ultimately, the Pats will force Eagles QB Carson Wentz to beat them consistently downfield, and I don't think he can. Patriots cover.