Both these teams’ games have hit the Under twice as often as the Over this season (6 Unders, 3 Overs for each). Both have a defense ranked in the top five in DVOA, and both have an offense that’s outside the top 20 in DVOA. Mitchell Trubisky vs. Jared Goff is the perfect matchup for a low scoring game, so even with a low total, take the Under.

This is a great spot to jump on the Rams after last week’s 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh. The Bears ended a four-game losing streak but barely got the cover against the Lions who were playing without Matthew Stafford. The Bears offense is painful to watch. The Rams offense struggles against physical defenses, but the loss from last week makes this a good bounce-back spot. Rams to cover.

This is a battle of two quarterbacks you want to fade, which makes it the perfect game for an Under. Both of these teams have questionable QBs and questionable offensive lines. That doesn't strike me as a formula conducive to a lot of points being scored.

Both of these defenses are in the top five of DVOA, while both offenses have struggled in recent weeks. The Rams have been able to do nothing against other top defenses like the 49ers and Steelers, while the Bears have managed 300 yards of offense just once this year and only scored 16 points in that game. The Rams are also dealing with offensive line issues that should make it tougher to stop the Bears pass rush when they have to throw. The only way this Under goes down is if the defenses make multiple trips to the end zone.

Los Angeles isn’t saying why uber-gifted RB Todd Gurley got no carries in the fourth quarter last Sunday, but an educated guess is that he was being protected because its offensive line is ravaged by injuries. Rams QB Jared Goff’s star has dipped, as he cannot create plays with shabby blocking, and WR Brandin Cooks (concussion) remains shelved. Chicago is no offensive juggernaut, but scoring close to 20 points should be sufficient for a cover. This has Rams-Steelers redux from last Sunday (17-12 final score) written all over it.

The Bears got a much-needed win against the Lions, but it's not as if the offense suddenly woke up out of its funk. The Bears had just 226 yards of offense in Week 10, making it the fourth time in their last five games they've failed to gain even 260 yards. The Rams' strong defense continued against the Steelers, and I expect that unit to dictate the game while Sean McVay leans on the rushing attack to get a win. And I doubt we have to worry about a backdoor cover from Mitchell Trubisky if we're up in the fourth quarter. Lay it with L.A.