We’ve got all kinds of variables to consider here. Ryan Fitzpatrick has covered the last four games he’s played, showing that Miami’s power rating is too low. The Colts will have Brian Hoyer at QB, meaning there is another rating drop for the Colts. I like the Dolphins momentum, I’ll take the points.

Since the Dolphins decided to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6, they've covered the spread every game. Now they'll face a Colts team that will be without T.Y. Hilton (Indy is 0-6 when Hilton hasn't played) and could be without Jacoby Brissett, who's a game-time decision. The Colts haven’t won or lost a game this season by more than seven points, and that shouldn't change against a Dolphins team that's been lively of late. Take the points.

Prop to Miami for snaring its first straight-up win. Now, look for the Dolphins to revert to normal, especially minus their most reliable RB Mark Walton (suspension) and WR Preston Williams (ACL) shelved. It would be helpful but not essential for Indy to start Jacoby Brissett (knee). The drop-off with veteran Brian Hoyer is slight. The Colts are eager to shake loose from a season-long pattern of outcomes determined by one score.

This line is getting out of control. Even if Jacoby Brissett plays, he'll be less than 100 percent due to his knee injury. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over in the Washington game, the Dolphins actually have outscored their opponents. Grab the points.

The Colts have done nothing to be this big of favorites against any team. Their biggest win this year is by seven points, and with T.Y. Hilton and possibly Jacoby Brissett out for this one, I can't expect the scoring to suddenly explode on their end. The Miami offense has proved functional with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and that's helped the team cover four straight games. Throw in the Colts being shaky in the kicking game, and this could definitely be a case of them winning but not covering this massive number.

Despite having their three-game winning streak halted in their 26-24 loss at Pittsburgh, the Colts still managed to score at least three touchdowns for the fifth time in eight games this season. And they did so with their backup quarterback. Expect even more this week as they face one of the league's worst defenses and grab the Over.