This is going to be a close game, and it might even be painful at times if you have one side or another here, but the only choice to me is the Saints. Unlike his last two opponents, Jameis Winston will not be able to exploit New Orleans because its defense should be able to get to him -- and we all know what happens when Winston is under pressure. The tremendous performance against the Rams has brought this line down, while the Saints are coming off a loss to the Cowboys. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to start throwing, opening up some lanes for Alvin Kamara and creating a home victory in a tough Superdome.

We've seen a massive reaction to the Bucs' win in L.A. with this line, which was -6.5 on the lookahead number. 3.5 points is a lot for any line to move, not to mention one where the other team actually scored an upset win itself! I'm not super confident the Saints offense will suddenly kick it into gear against a Bucs defense that has performed far better than expected, but this Saints defense has been up to the challenge of winning games while Drew Brees is out. Jameis Winston turns back into a pumpkin and the Saints get the win and cover here.

It's yet to be proven by science, but you never want to trust Jameis Winston to play well two weeks in a row. Nor do I want to trust this Saints offense right now, particularly against a Tampa defense that's been much better than anybody expected this season. So instead I'll take the Under.

Tampa Bay isn't going to score 50-plus again, and Jameis Winston is always liable to implode, but there's value on the up-and-coming Bucs under Bruce Arians. The Saints upset the Cowboys without scoring a touchdown last week. Take the points.

Bruce Arians has done a great job with Jameis Winston, and the Bucs' defense is really solid. This is a letdown situation with New Orleans coming off that huge primetime upset of the Cowboys. In their last 10 home games, the Saints are 2-7-1 ATS. Take the points.

The Saints offense has been held to 265 and 266 yards in its two games with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, and now they have to face the team with the best run defense in the league. Will Bridgewater be able to key the passing offense when the Saints haven't scored a touchdown in half their games this year? I also like fading the Bucs offense coming off a 55-point effort; the last six times a team scored 50-plus and had to play the next week, that game went Under. With all the travel, I think this is another low-scoring Saints game where the Under cashes easily.

Lost in the Teddy Bridgewater-doesn't-throw-downfield narrative is how stellar the Saints defense has been the past two weeks. Their secondary has been the story of this two-game stretch, as they have put the clamps on opposing receivers. The Bucs defense has been equally impressive, especially defensive end Shaq Barrett. Offensively, they still are a bit too one-dimensional to trust them in this game.