This pick has nothing to do with Mike McCarthy's departure, though I do think some in-game decision making will improve with him now gone. The Falcons are a bad team in general, worse on the road. The Packers deserve the full three points for home-field advantage, and now you're telling me they're only a half-point better than the Falcons? This may wind up being a double-digit victory for Green Bay, but with the line dropping as much as it has, I only need four. The Packers should be able to run and throw on the Falcons all afternoon and pick up a much-needed win, even though it won't matter much long-term.

Except for a beatdown of the Redskins -- who lost most of their offensive line that day -- the Falcons have been horrific on the road. Their four road losses have come by an average of 14 points. Look for an inspired effort from the home team, in the wake of Mike McCarthy's firing, as the Packers cover.

The firing of Mike McCarthy apparently has caused the total to catapult four points. The thinking goes, QB Aaron Rodgers is rid of the Packers coach with whom he did not see eye-to-eye. It is risky to assume A-Rod suddenly will be the old A-Rod in a week’s time. As for Atlanta, a nightmarish 131-yard game Sunday remains too fresh. Green Bay’s offensive line is hurting, while Falcons ace K Matt Bryant (back) is questionable, adding to the doubts for a 50-plus game.

Mike McCarthy had to go, and the Packers figure to be more aggressive on offense under Joe Philbin. I think we're going to see a huge performance from the Packers offense against an Atlanta defense that's 31st against the pass and 29th against the run, per DVOA. It's also projected to be around 20-25 degrees at gametime, and the Falcons are 1-8 straight up all-time at 25 degrees or less. Are we going to get max effort from them for three hours in the bitter cold in what's a lost season? I doubt it, and I think the Packers extend a halftime lead against a team that doesn't want to be there and easily cover.

The road team has covered nine of the past 12 meetings, but I like the home team here, beginning with Mike McCarthy getting canned. I'm expecting the Packers to have all gotten the wake-up call for their part in the firing and it'll be especially easier for them to respond on all fronts at home where they're somewhat decent at 4-1-1. The Falcons have lost their last four, with all four staying Under the total, while averaging only 17 ppg. They can't move the ball. Packers are the play.

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers have finally been freed of the shackles that were Mike McCarthy, but you know what? I don't think Mike McCarthy was the only problem in Green Bay. I think we've begun to see the decline of Aaron Rodgers, and he's not getting much of any help from his receiving corps, as he has only one target that can get open consistently. Firing McCarthy won't solve all that.