Unless you are counting on the Bills' defense to tag Andrew Luck for a couple pick-sixes, I'm not sure where the points are going to come from in this game for Buffalo. It has been a rough season for the Colts, but they're at home with most of their top playmakers active and a defense that is capable enough to capitalize on what are sure to be some errant throws from Josh Al...Nathan Peter...Derek Anderson?! Really?! If Buffalo had some top-tier playmakers, I could be convinced that Anderson could manage them to a win and a cover ... but it simply does not. Indy is the more talented team with the far better quarterback, and it badly needs a win after a few rough weeks.

The Colts have not been a trustworthy team against the spread -- from the Week 1 meltdown against Cincinnati to last week’s road debacle against the Jets. Sunday marks Andrew Luck’s seventh start since returning from injury and the offense has looked much improved. He should be able to limit his turnovers against Buffalo. Veteran quarterbacks getting starts sometimes are too overvalued, which is the case here with Derek Anderson. Grab the Colts.

Thirty-five year-old Derek Anderson is starting for Buffalo. While he may not make the huge mistakes Nathan Peterman is known for, I doubt he'll spark this offense. He's making just his fifth start in the past eight years. Lay the points.

Where are the points coming from in this game? While I think Andrew Luck will have success considering how well he's looked even without some of his top targets, the Bills have been excellent on defense, causing their last four games to all go Under. And now they're starting Derek Anderson, who has barely played in the last eight years, after he's been on the team less than two weeks. This feels like a 24-3 win for Indy, so I'm banging the Under.

Most NFL games exceed this total. Then again, most games do not involve a QB with four starts in his last eight seasons and was just signed with his current team a week ago. That would be Derek Anderson of Buffalo, which bypassed the erratic Nathan Peterman and named the veteran to start in place of injured Josh Allen (elbow). Colts QB Andrew Luck likes to fling it, but Indy ranks No. 17 in team offense, so Buffalo’s determined defense will keep the Colts from busting loose.

Josh Allen is dealing with an elbow injury that has the Bills calling him week to week. That means we're probably going to see Andrew Luck vs. Nathan Peterman. And we don't even have to lay one pick-six (plus the extra point)! I don't care how many injuries the Colts are dealing with, I have to lay it at this line.