Last week's game against the Browns was a weird one for the Ravens, but let's not act like the Titans did something spectacular in a one-point loss to the Bills. Tennessee has surprised me with wins over Jacksonville and Philadelphia, but I simply have no belief in this team as a whole. I expect the Ravens to play more like the team that beat the Steelers and Broncos by double digits.

The Titans have homefield advantage and the edge on special teams. Beyond that, Baltimore is superior. Look for Alex Collins to have a big game against Tennessee's struggling run defense, easing the pressure on Joe Flacco. Lay the small number.

We're getting great value here, as the Ravens were only favored by one on the lookahead and my numbers say the Titans should actually be favored by one. The Ravens are playing a third straight road game and coming off an overtime loss; we could see them dragging a bit in this matchup. Tennessee offense isn't great, but it was playing better before a rough spot against a solid defense on the road last week. The defense is excellent, giving up just seven TDs in five games. Titans find a way to win this game at home.

I'm looking to play the Unders in games with these two teams, with Baltimore having an excellent defense and Tennessee finding ways to win ugly. So why not play the Under when they're up against each other? The Ravens offense might be a little worn down playing their third straight road game and coming off an overtime loss. The Titans have scored just six TDs on offense and allowed only seven TDs on defense in five games, and their offense has really only looked good one week out of five. This should be another ugly game.

I like Baltimore to bounce back. Joe Flacco had a terrible game against Cleveland but I think he'll come back strong against Tennessee. The Ravens' defense should prevail in this matchup. Baltimore gives up 15.4 points per game, fewest in the league, while Tennessee averages just 17.4, which is 29th.

I don't have much belief in the Titans offense as it is, and this week it'll be going against a tough Ravens defense. Even with the Titans at home I just don't trust the Titans in this spot.

This will be a very good defensive game between the Ravens and Titans. The X-factor will be on the offensive side of the ball. Funny enough, you can actually make the case that the Ravens have the better quarterback in this matchup, and because of that, you can trust their offense can find enough success to overcome tough defensive play from their opponent. On paper, especially on the perimeter, the Titans have better personnel, but when you combine ineffective quarterback play going up against a great defense, the forecast for success is bleak. Lay the points with the Ravens.