Not only are the Falcons tremendous at home in Atlanta, they have been dominant against the Panthers since Dan Quinn took over the team. Both squads are dealing with a bevy of Week 1 injuries entering this game, but I have no doubt that Quinn has figured out a way to scheme around his losses. Meanwhile, Cam Newton's safety blanket in Greg Olsen is gone, and I just don't see him running all day on Atlanta. And I really like that I'm getting six and seven here with the line.

Devonta Freeman is unlikely to play in this game and that provides a little value to the spread in this game. Getting this game at less than a touchdown is a gift. The Falcons don't take a hit in rating at all with Coleman taking 80% of the reps and Ito Smith picking up the slack. Matt Ryan has a strong history of playing well against the Panthers, and I'm projecting that to continue in week 2. Julio Jones scored 3 TD last season... he scores 2 this week. Lay it!

Despite the Falcons' defensive injuries, this game sets up well for Atlanta. The Falcons had extra time to prepare, and all they've heard for 10 days is that they can't score in the red zone. This division rivalry has been dominated by the home team lately (5-1 ATS last six meetings) and I see that continuing Sunday.

Tough break for the Falcons as they lose two defensive starters virtually for the season in safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones. Losing defensive players, especially difference making ones, is not what you want to have happen as you face Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Those two guys play a huge role in stopping the run, which the Falcons will have trouble doing in this one as a result. Take the points.

This game has Under written all over it. Well, pull out the eraser because a better option is Carolina despite the absence of TE Greg Olsen (knee) and OT Daryl Williams (knee). That is offset -- and then some -- by the loss of S Keanu Neal (knee) and LB Deion Jones (foot) for Atlanta. The Panthers will scrounge out some points. Atlanta, not so much as offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, sitting on a scaldingly hot seat, has been unable to convert a talented unit into an effective one. The Falcons score too many threes, not enough sevens.

We're relying on a lot of recent history here. Since Dan Quinn took over in Atlanta for the 2015 season, Cam Newton and the Panthers just haven't had a whole lot of success against the Falcons defense. In six games against Quinn's Falcons Newton has thrown six touchdowns to only five interceptions while completing 51.41 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards (6.14 Y/A). Furthermore, the Falcons have gone 4-2 ATS in those six games, including 3-0 at home.

The Falcons were dealt a pair of big injuries on defense in Week 1, losing Deion Jones and Keanu Neal to IR. That's a big deal in a matchup where Christian McCaffery could dominate in the passing game. The Falcons also still have major questions to answer about their red-zone offense. These teams were pretty much even to me, and I'd make this line Falcons -3. Love the value with the Panthers.

The biggest deal about this game is that Cam Newton's security blanket, TE Greg Olsen, is doubtful to play. And if he does, he won't be very effective. The Panthers have lost their last three at Atlanta and are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Also, nine of the past 10 meetings have stayed Under. Falcons bounce back with a win and cover again against Cam.

Atlanta is 9-1 in its last 10 home openers, and has covered four of the past five meetings with the Panthers. Atlanta is a different team at home. Carolina is not exactly an offensive juggernaut.