I love the mental toughness the Bengals showed last week in their comeback win vs. the Colts. That is something we really haven't seen from this squad in quite some time. The Ravens offense was able to move the ball extremely well in the pouring rain last week against Buffalo. This game, short week, expect it to be a low scoring one and it that regard, you have to roll with the better defense. Take Baltimore.

Forget the Week 1 results, what I like on a short week is competent, trustworthy quarterback play and defense. That's what the Ravens bring to the table. Now if we do consider last week's results, you saw a Baltimore team firing on all cylinders against a hapless Buffalo squad, so much so that many of the starters hardly played in the second half. That's nice considering there's a game four days later. Meanwhile, the Bengals were outgained by the Colts and did not show much defensively while competing hard for four full quarters. As long as the Ravens can bottle up Joe Mixon, Baltimore should walk out with a tough road win.

All my smart friends are saying Baltimore wins, and they make some great cases. But I'm going against the grain with Cincinnati at home. Sure, Joe Flacco looked good against the Bills in a 47-3 blowout win. But the Bengals' offense has been in sync. They've covered seven of their last nine including a win against the Ravens to prevent Baltimore from making the playoffs. Ravens corner Jimmy Smith is still out because of a suspension and that was the final factor in deciding the Bengals are the right side Thursday.

The Bengals are going to be in for a shock on Thursday after rolling to 6.6 yards per play against a bad Colts defense. We don't know much about the Ravens after their shellacking of the Bills, but I came into this season thinking they were one of the four best teams in the AFC. This is the type of game they should win if that's the case. John Harbaugh is also a great coach on short rest, with the Ravens winning their last seven Thursday games when they played the previous Sunday.

Low scores are the norm for this AFC Central rivalry. Before the unusual 58-point outburst last New Year’s Eve, Baltimore and Cincinnati collaborated for 40, 33, 37 and 20 points in a four-game stretch. The Ravens’ defense is not quite as domineering as it looked against punchless Buffalo on Sunday, but it belongs among the elite. The Bengals’ D is not quite as porous as it sometimes seemed against Indianapolis, having ranked tied for sixth in yards yielded per snap last year. The unit thrives at home, helping to deliver seven Unders in the past 10 dates on the banks of the Ohio River. The imbalance tilts further on Thursdays, with the Over mired in a five-game drought.

There's no question Cincinnati has dominated this series lately, winning seven of the past nine and knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs in Week 17 last year. I still wouldn't be surprised if this line hit Baltimore -3. Cincy was fortunate to escape Indy with a win, as the Bengals were outgained 380-330 and used an 83-yard fumble return to seal it. The Ravens hardly broke a sweat in dismantling Buffalo. I'm on the road favorite playing with revenge.

The Ravens generally don't play well in Cincinnati, but I think Baltimore is really loaded this year, with a solid running game and defense and a QB who's playing well. They're well-coached. I took them at 15/1 to win the conference.

While the Bengals struggled for three quarters against a Colts squad coming off a 4-12 season on Sunday, the Ravens were crushing the Bills by 44 points. Oddsmakers may be calling this a pick'em but my simulations show Baltimore taking this game nearly two-thirds of the time by a touchdown average. Take the Ravens.

I want to get this pick now because I have a suspicion the line will move before kickoff rolls around. Joe Mixon was impressive for the Bengals against Indy, but the truth is, Cincinnati was sloppy in victory. It turned the ball over twice and was called for eight penalties. Give me the Ravens.