There's a lot of reasons to like the Rams in this spot, primarily because Los Angeles boasts the league's top offense from a year ago going up against an Oakland secondary that was one of the NFL's worst. There's also the fact that Jon Gruden has been in a booth -- not on a sideline -- for the last decade. Then there's the fact that the Raiders may still be down after their bosses traded Khalil Mack out from under them. The Rams are 0-9 ATS since 2001 as road favorites, but the Raiders are also 3-12 in Week 1 over the last 15 years. Something's got to give tonight. I may not be getting the best number here (that's my fault), but I still expect the Rams to win by at least a touchdown.

My first thought when I saw Khalil Mack dominate in his Bears' debut was how in the world the Raiders will replace him. They can't, and he was their saving grace. Oakland closed out 2017 on a 3-9 ATS run. I see a shootout happening here with Derek Carr having a fun game in Jon Gruden's second go-round. The Raiders will be competitive, but at the same time, chasing last season's highest-scoring team. Oakland's defense gives no reason to suggest it will slow an entire offense of Rams players in their prime. Over is the top play.

The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings against the Raiders, but considering the squads only meet once every four years, don't read too much into that stat. But what can't be discounted is that L.A. was the highest-scoring team in the league in 2017. And having a year under their belt to jell, the Rams are poised to hover near the No. 1 spot again in 2018. The Rams were 7-1 straight up on the road last season and played well this preseason. My simulations show Los Angeles winning this one by an average of 10 points 60 percent of the time. In the battle of California, back the Rams.

Distrust of the Raiders moves by coach Jon Gruden is the antithesis of praised off-season moves from the Rams. Building for the future seems to be the goal which is typically a linked recipe for pitter-patter ATS. Yet line movement has sprung value on a Raiders team that should have a loose, composed nature to begin the year, while the Rams have immense expectations. Grab the Raiders.

We're in for a line move toward kickoff, and I'd be shocked if this didn't close at Rams -6 or even up to -7. I can't see the Raiders' locker room coming together after trading the team's best player rather than paying him what he deserves, and if the Rams go up quickly, we can't expect a Raiders passing game with one key weapon to have success against an excellent Rams defense. Even though this is the most public of plays, I'm gonna be all over the Rams at this number.

Oakland lost its best defensive player, couldn't sign him, traded him. I also think it's going to take Jon Gruden a little time to get used to coaching again. The Rams' defense added a lot of key elements, and they signed their best defensie player. And they've got the battering ram RB, Todd Gurley, who will have a big game.

No Khalil Mack definitely changes things for the Raiders defense. To their credit, in the preseason they were getting some excellent production from their rookies and the defense looked fine. Their offense, more in particular the passing game, will have to be on point as they are facing what could possibly be the best defense in the NFL. What we can agree on is that they have the best defensive player in the game in DT Aaron Donald. He will be the difference Monday night.

This matchup has no business with a total a half-tick below 50, equalling the second loftiest of opening week. L.A. has fortified its defense with veteran acquisitions such as NT Ndamukong Suh, CB Marcus Peters and S Aqib Talib, while all-world DT Aaron Donald showed up in shape after ending his annual holdout. Oakland owned the league’s seventh-ranked defense in 2017. The unit did feature since-departed LB Khalil Mack, but the 49.5 has blessedly held firm even with his trade over the weekend to Chicago. Who knows what happenings to expect in Jon Gruden’s coaching return? But a points explosion against these Rams is not one of them. Though the Over did go 7-1 last year in L.A. road games, all but one of the assigned totals was in the low-to-mid 40s.