Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.

This looks like a good spot to back De’Aaron Fox in a game with a 240 point total that projects to be competitive. Fox has been playing well recently and is looking more and more comfortable in his role as the teams closer and primary scorer in crunch time. I also like that both Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell are Questionable which could lead to a bump in usage if both players sit.