In two of the last three playoff games from Indiana they have pulled off miracle comebacks in the final minute. Today, look for the Cavaliers in a desperation spot to play with the same intensity as game two, but to avoid a fourth quarter meltdown. With this line gaining momentum on the Cavaliers side, I expect at least two if not all three in Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and DeAndre Hunter to play tonight. Tail the Cavaliers.

It sounds as if Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter will all return for the Cavs. So that should mean Donovan Mitchell doesn't approach 30 shot attempts or 21 free-throw attempts again. This has dropped to 28.5 at a few books with that trio all participating in shootaround. If they happen to all still sit again, yeah, this probably loses. But that does not sound like the case with the spread rising a fair amount.

The Pacers continue to be discounted in this matchup...but why? For almost two months now, Indiana has posted a better record than Cleveland, and while a repeat of the manner of the Game 2 fightback is unlikely, we suspect the Cavs are in real trouble in this series. Cleveland hasn't been able to control the Indiana offense, or Tyrese Haliburton in the clutch, and this spread seems more reflective of efforts from much earlier in the season. Indiana has now beaten Cleveland five of six this season, and the Cavs' health remains a question, with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and DeAndre Hunter already missing games in this series. Play Pacers.

B365 @ -120. Andrew Nembhard is on fire right now, notching at least 21 points plus assists in six of his seven playoff games, including 29 and 26 against the Cavs. His role is very secure (36 minutes in each game against Cleveland, despite eight turnovers last game), and he benefited from added coverage on Haliburton with a 25% usage rate in Game 2.

This line is set under Evan Mobley's projection of 2.9 and his average of 3.1. It's set low because this season his average is much lower on the road (2.7) than at home (3.4), and his over rate is just 47.4% (vs 68.4% at home). But I see a player who is "due" coming in on a 5-1 Under stretch, prior to which he had 7 straight overs and 16-5 if you extend it back to late February. While Mobley is a game-time decision, you have to figure he will not only play but play his full minutes, even with a sprained ankle given how desperate the Cavs are for the win. Perhaps the ankle injury will limit his mobility and offensive aggressiveness.

After two shocking losses on their home court, the Cavaliers will be locked in defensively, assuming defensive player of the year Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter are back. The model has a 55% lean on the full game under, but because of how close the projected score is, this could go into overtime, which is why we prefer taking the first quarter total. One big reason why the Cavs won 30 games on the road in the regular season is they had a better 2pt defense on the road (allowing 52%) than at home while allowing the same low 36% from 3pt range. Indiana is also a better defense at home, allowing 2 fewer points and holding teams to just 35% 3pt shooting at home.

That's now four straight and five of six for the Pacers over the Cavs after that improbable Game 2 fightback. The recurring theme in these matchups is the tempo, which has been brisk and to Indiana's liking, with Tyrese Haliburton continuing to rub salt in the Cavs' wounds. The statuses of Cleveland's Darius Garland, DeAndre Hunter, and Evan Mobley, who all missed action in this series, further compromise the myriad defensive issues of the Cavs. Thus another another over might be in order, as it has hit in the first two games of this series as the Pacers in particular remain adept at forcing the pace. Overs are also on a 19-7 playoff run after last night's Warriors-Wolves action. Play Cavs-Pacers Over

Andrew Nembhard has been sensational throughout the playoffs and is a big reason why the Pacers find themselves up 2-0 on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Whether it’s been his shooting, playmaking, defense, he’s been contributing in a myriad of ways. With that being said, this is a very high line for his AR considering he’s not a high output rebounder and is a secondary ball handler. Nembhard has averaged under 9 combined RA in the regular season and postseason. My projections have a nice edge here.

We continue to ride this trend after both games went over with relative ease in Cleveland. Cavs injuries hurt them more defensively than offensively and I bet they shoot the deep ball better on road, which has been the trend. These teams played over games in regular season as well. Both can get to 120. Teams are over in 7 of last 10 meetings. Pacers 9th in pace at home in regular season and Cavs led NBA in road offensive rating (121.3) in regular season. Pacers were 9th in Offensive Rating at home and are in great form now.