Orlando probably isn't going to win this series or even get it back to Kia Center for Game Six, but the Magic have at least succeeded in making it uncomfortable for the Celtics. As during the regular season when Orlando won 2 of 3 (though Jayson Tatum missed the Magic wins). The more-deliberate Magic pace has jammed the gearbox on the Celtics' transition game and their many rapid-fire three-pointers that come usually come with it; for the season, Boston is converting roughly seven fewer triples pg against Orlando than vs. anyone else. As the pace has been slower, it has proven a bit more difficult for the Celtics to pull clear; the last three games in this series have all ended single-digit margins. Play Magic

Derrick White has faced the Magic six times this season, and in five of those games he played 35-plus minutes. In those five games, he has averaged 19.6 points, scoring at least 16 each time. Jrue Holiday is out for Game 5 and Jaylen Brown is questionable with a lingering knee injury. Of course Brown is expected to play, but either way White should continue to receive massive minutes. He's averaging 38.3 minutes in this series. White is only 7 of 24 from deep over the past three games, so an uptick in long-range efficiency Tuesday would not be surprising.

Caesar’s. Caesar’s. Al Horford has stayed under this line in three of the four games this series. The one time he pushed over was barely (20) in the game that Jayson Tatum missed. With Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis all active this season, Horford remained under this line in 21 of 23 games. Brown does remain questionable, but he’s managed to play in each game this series as he battles knee issues. It’s a tough matchup for Horford as the Magic were the best team at limiting spot up scoring this season, and they allowed the fewest assists and third fewest rebounds.

The Magic are a defense-first team that relies heavily on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to generate offense. While Wagner has shot just 44.1% from the field and 21.2% from behind the arc in this series, he still scored at least 23 points in all four games. The key is, he has averaged 39 minutes and 23.3 shot attempts per game in this series. Plenty of minutes and another hefty usage rate should be in the cards for him for Game 5.

The Magic are on the brink of elimination, but they haven’t made things easy on the Celtics. They were blown out in Game 1, but the other three games have all be competitive. They won Game 3 and their other two losses came by nine points each. Jrue Holiday (hamstring) has been ruled out, which is a big loss for the Celtics. I think the Magic are eliminated here, but they won’t go down without a fight. Their defensive effort gives them an opportunity to cover this big number.

Franz Wagner was fifteenth in the NBA this season averaging twenty four points per game. He has raised that in the first round by two points to an average of twenty six. With Orlando’s issues on having a third scoring option, it has raised Wagner’s volume shooting to twenty three shot attempts per game. Wagner also has room for improvement from beyond the arc where he is just twenty one percent in the series. Take his over in game five.

In simulations, Boston wins by 16.2 points. The model does have a team take their foot off the pedal if they're up big. Of the 16.2 points the largest spread is the first quarter (around -5.5), 2nd largest is the 2nd quarter (-4.5), 3rd largest is the 3rd (-4) and 4th is relatively minimal (-2). The spread for quarters 1, 2, and 3 is BOS -3.5, while the 4th is BOS -1.5. Our best value is the 57% of line value we have on the first quarter. Boston is up 3-1 despite shooting just 32%, 33% and 29% from three their last 3 games. They are due to regress to their 3pt% mean which means a 40%+ and hopefully a 50%+ opening quarter seems due.

This game is not about beating Orlando, that is basically a foregone conclusion. This game is about Boston getting back to being the high volume, high% 3pt shooting team and that starts with Kristaps Porzingis who can always get a quality 3pt attempt off given his height. Porzingis is projected for 2.3 made 3s and averages 2.3 (31-15, 67.4% over 1.5 this season) so we have a very nice +$$$ bet on a line under his projection and average. We will jump on a buy low spot based on his 0-10 first 3 games. I wouldn’t worry about this being a blowout and that hurting his over chances. The over is 15-6, 71.4% even when Boston is an -11.5 favorite or better.

We’re getting a hefty discount on this combination line for Jaylen Brown who appears to be at full strength and playing without limitations after logging 41 minutes in the Celtics Game 4 victory. Brown dealt with a nagging knee injury which depressed this line but he certainly appears to be operating at full strength. I also like that this game is in Boston where Brown averaged over 35 PRA compared to just 29.8 PRA on the road.