DraftKings. I’m going to ride with Andrew Nembhard again, as the Pacers guard has come out firing this postseason. He’s cleared this line in three of four games, with the one miss in the game where the entire Pacer offense fell flat. In the return to Indianapolis for Game 5, I’m expecting Nembhard and the Pacers to come out firing, looking to close out the series.

Damian Lillard is out for the rest of the season with a torn left Achilles tendon. When he went down early in Game 4, Kevin Porter Jr. played 33 minutes off the bench. He was aggressive, scoring 23 points on 17 shot attempts. Despite shooting just 2-for-7 from the field, Porter scored 12 points in Game 1 with Lillard out. With the Bucks on the brink of elimination, someone must take some of the scoring pressure off Giannis Antetokounmpo. Porter isn’t shy about shooting, so look for him to hit this over with extended minutes coming his way.

The Pacers look like they might be playing spoiler once again in the postseason and sport a very deep rotation. As a result they’re getting significant contributions from 8 to 9 players on a nightly basis. Andrew Nembhard has been an unsung hero and strong two way player, however this is a large combination line for him, especially considering his usage and role in Indiana’s offense when they’re operating at full strength. Nembhard is shooting 53% through the playoffs and we’re getting an inflated line.

The Bucks have the look of being led to the gallows, especially after Dame Lillard's Achilles injury in Game 4. With Lillard only recently returning to active duty from a long layoff, the deck was always stacked against Milwaukee in this series, which aside from one desperate second-half spurt in Game 3 has looked outclassed. This is also not the same Bucks team from a year ago, when the supporting cast for Giannis included sorts like Khris Middleton and Malik Beasley. The Bucks' "others" are simply not to the level of last season. Remember, Indiana buried Milwaukee 120-95 in Game 6 to win this series last spring and can do the same one game earlier on Tuesday night. Play Pacers

Obi Toppin is projected for 13.2 points in 18 minutes which is not a lot of value, but I think the projection is closer to his floor. The model isn't factoring in the high likelihood that the Bucks will be totally unmotivated and get blown out. So I’m looking at Toppin as the player who is more likely to exceed his projected minutes by 25%+ he could be in for 17 PRA. The Bucks do not seem equipped to deal with his athleticism and activity around the basket. As a result, he has 23 points in his last 30 minutes (last 2 games). He comes in on an 18-7 over 12.5 PRA tear. The over is 33-4 89% when he plays 20+ minutes this season.

The line opened at -6.5 and is at -8 in most books so I want to get -7.5 before it steams to -8.5 or -9 by tipoff. I don't expect Indiana to get cocky in this spot because of the bad blood between the teams. From a statistical standpoint we project solid advantages in 3pt differential (IND +2%) and turnover margin (IND +4). This is what you expect given MIL shoots -3% worse from 3pt range on the road vs home, and Indiana is +3% in 3pt differential at home (vs even on the road). Milwaukee lost the turnover margin battle by 5+ in each of the first 2 games so the projection seems to be in line with what we saw in these games.

The Pacers' offensive efficiency in this series is off the charts. It's a bad defensive match-up for the Bucks; The Pacers have 62.4 TS% and 60.4 EFG%; that shouldn't be happening after two road games in the playoffs. This series is personal so if the game gets sideways I bet they still run up the score with the home crowd behind them. They have been scoring 120 points without getting to the line much at all. I suspect the Bucks foul them early and often here in a desperation spot knowing they can't keep pace.

This may tick up a point when Damian Lillard is officially ruled out for Tuesday, as he clearly will be ruled out due to that injury suffered in Game 4. So let's just take it now. During the regular season, Bobby Portis averaged 17.5 PPG in games without Lillard, and Portis is at 14.0 PPG in this series. Our model has Portis at 13.5 points on Tuesday, so getting 12.5 instead of 13.5 may well matter.