The Pacers have outscored the Bucks by 33 points with Andrew Nembhard on the floor. That's the best plus-minus of any Indiana player. Assuming we get a competitive game, Nembhard should play at least 30 minutes. He's put up 26 combined points, assists and rebounds in each of the first two games. We have a relatively high total of 230.5, so the opportunities should be there.

We have Pascal Siakam projected for over 4 assists and probably a good 70% chance of the over hitting. Even though his assist average goes down on the road by 0.3 and his over 2.5 rate goes down by 9 percentage points, he is still a solid 22-16 with a 3.2 avg on the road. You see the odds imply the exact same % as his road over but I like the fact that last season this was a layup when he went 69-28, 71.1% over 2.5 assists and he is 14-6 (70%) coming into this game. Siakam has scored 25 and 24 points and maybe he starts drawing more defensive attention from Giannis which could force him to pass it more to open shooters.

This play represents value, considering the line is as high as -150 in other sportsbooks. Our model sets the line at 7.1 assists for Giannis, and he has had 7 or more assists in 7 of his last 10 games. Additionally, Giannis hit this number in both home games against the Pacers this season. While the line probably would be 7.5 if Dame Lillard was out, Giannis has been racking up assists with a high volume in recent games, making this a solid bet.

Pascal Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game this season. He was even better on the road, where he averaged 21.0 points per game. He scored 25 points against the Bucks in Game 1, then scored 24 points in Game 2. In four regular season games against the Bucks, Siakam scored 25, 20, 25 and 26 points. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts likely coming his way again, the over is the way to go here.

FanDuel. Running it back with Andrew Nembhard, who has scored 17 points in each of the first two games of this series. In a closer Game 2, he was up to 34 minutes - expect that to stay the course in Game 3, especially with Damian Lillard back. Not afraid to take a big shot either - should find himself with some open looks.

The Bucks did come from down 2-0 in both the East Finals and NBA Finals in their 2021 championship run and there are a few guys back from that club led by Giannis, but clearly this team is not in that one's stratosphere. That said, I do think the Bucks get Game 3 on Friday at home even if that's their only one. The Pacers did lose both there in the RS. And having two days off after Game 2 instead of one can only help Damian Lillard.

I could see a desperate Bucks team winning, but I expect that would be because The Greek Freak takes over and they win a real shootout. The Bucks' D was an issue all year and the Pacers look like a bad matchup. Indiana starters have 63.5 TS% and are +14.7, 2nd best in the playoffs. Bucks starters -13.5, lot of turnovers, just 55.2 TS%. The Bucks will shoot 3-ball better at home but Indiana can match. The Pacers are much deeper and more balanced, which should help as the series advances. Indiana scored 112+ in 12 of last 14 on the road, averaging 122.6/G in that span.