The Mavericks emphasize 3-point defense, and the Thunder move and cut as well as any team in the league. Isaiah Hartenstein is a wonderful two-man facilitator and high-post hub passer, and Dallas' overextension to cover the line should open up plenty of playmaking opportunities for Hartenstein in the middle of the floor.

This is a guy that we spent a lot of time Talking about on my SportsLine show. He’s an underrated commodity who has medians of 12 1/2 points, 13 1/2 rebounds, and 4 1/2 assists.. thus this number is significantly low. There have been nights where he has simply not scored, but Dallas has been pretty forgiving towards opposing big men.

This line is tight based off one game. But that game was played between Chet Holmgren’s injury and Isaiah Hartenstein’s return, which resulted in a Dallas win. Since Hartenstein’s return, OKC is 7-2 ATS. OKC is also a better shooting team from home and higher volume shooting team. The model makes this a double-digit victory.

This feels personal for the Thunder after being eliminated by Dallas in last season's playoffs and then losing the first matchup this season at home. This is an NBA Cup game, so the loser doesn't advance. The reason I'm playing this now is because there's apparently an illness going around the Mavs' locker room with a couple of fringe rotation guys already ruled out and two key rotation guys in PJ Washington and Naji Marshall as questionable. If they don't play, this number is jumping so that's why playing it now. Obviously the Thunder are more than capable of winning regardless.

The Mavs won at OKC earlier this season and are looking like their playoff selves the last month. OKC has had difficulty covering, especially at home, though they have been blowing out bad teams lately. This will be a different test, and the Mavs depth of inside options should serve them well here. Mavs 10-2 ATS in their last 12, winning 11 of those games. OKC just 6-5 as a home favorite, and have not come out of the gates like the juggernaut they were a year ago. Mavs 5-2-1 as a dog. Should be a playoff vibe, which I expect to bring out the best in the road team. They can keep it close. Dallas has lost one game by 5+ points since 11/4.

B365 and Caesars. Would play to o26.5. Low line for Hartenstein, who has cleared in 6/8 games this season. The Mavs are allowing the fifth most PRA to opposing centers. Specifically, where Hartenstein succeeds - the Mavs allow the 6th most offensive rebounds, and the third most FGs in the paint (non-RA) - where Hartenstein fires his push-shot floater.