Chet usage will be enough to justify and go over this prop. Half unit play

Dallas is playing even slower….and they are now a dead under team. 109 will require above metric shooting. Under.

Most experts know Game 7s traditionally go under…..but so do Game 5s that are 2-2. In this case the Mavs are 18-7 under in last 25 and OKC is 8-3 under in the last 11. Luka is hobbled. Slow is now even slower. Under.

A close game is expected in Dallas on Monday, which should mean at least 40 minutes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has cleared this combo prop in all three games in this series, and an offensive bounceback from OKC could help his assist total.

Luka still looks slowed, but the Mavs have cranked up the defensive intensity and seem better primed to win lower-scoring games. Playoff series tend to be a grind, and winning ugly is key. DAL is dominating offensive boards (5% higher in OReb%), and taking away one of OKC super powers. Thunder led NBA in drives/G, points off drives (36.5) and 2nd in drive FG% (53.6%) in reg season. In this series those numbers drop to 30 drive PPG, and 41.8% drive FG%. Forcing OKC to try to make up for that scoring loss from range, where they are hit or miss. Holmgren can get tossed around by Dallas bigs and even with SGA going off, OKC scoring is too streaky from the supporting cast.

Tempo-wise, this matchup has slowed down since the regular season. With Luka Doncic hobbling, this is the pace at which the Mavs have to play...and they can do it, because Luka remains lethal in halfcourt sets. His usage rate is down in the playoffs, perhaps a reason scorelines have been a bit lower. Make no mistake, however, Dallas can play at this type of pace, though what we're not sure is if PJ Washington can keep scoring at the rate (28 ppg) he has the past two games. The 3s haven't been falling as consistently for OKC the past two games, and both of these sides have been trending "under" (Mavs 18-7 since late in reg. season, Thunder 8-3 last 11). Play Thunder-Mavs "Under"

Chet Holmgren has had a terrific rookie season and his excellent play has carried over to the playoffs where he is averaging 15/8/3. Holmgren has been a bit quiet so far against Dallas but I like this as a buy low spot for the young Center, considering Holmgren averaged 24.4 PR in the regular season, despite logging significantly fewer MPG than he is in the playoffs. So far Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford have done a good job on Chet, however I believe we'll see him be more aggressive in Game 4 and I like his chances to have his best game of the series.

PJ Washington has come up clutch and has dropped back to back huge performances which had led to Dallas winning two consecutive games. Washington dropped 29 points in Game 2 and then followed that up with a 27 point performance in Game 3. OKC is a very good defensive club and I have confidence that they adjust, in addition to Washington likely coming back down to earth.