Clippers will go small. George goes to the 4. This is NICE value

I like this spot for Denver against a shorthanded Clippers squad that will be playing without their best player in Kawhi Leonard. Denver will be without Jamal Murray but I believe they are better equipped to handle the loss of Murray than the Clippers are to handle Kawhi's loss. I don't see LAC having an answer for Nikola Jokic. Im skipping the points and taking the ML.

Denver needs the game if they want the one seed, no KLeonard for the Clips. Joker is a tad banged up but this is a spot where the rest of the Nuggets can step up. ML

I normally avoid rebounding props but this is a good looking spot for Paul George. For starters, PG13 averages 5.3 RPG so 4.5 is a friendly number for him. However what I really like is that Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for this game and the Clippers are opting to go with a smaller lineup and George is essentially their starting PF, with Norman Powell entering the lineup. Then you factor in that Ivica Zubac will be occupied trying to slow down Nikola Jokic and George should get plenty of rebounding opportunities.

Only one team in the entire league defends the three-pointer worse than the Clippers since the ASB. Hmm. Not sure about their starting backcourt workrate at times and Porter can shoot the ball. The Jokers will command a lot of attention to himself and we like Porter in general in this 16.5-17.5 range. He's averaging 18/G the last 10 and shooting over 44% from behind the arc in that span and overdue for a big game vs LAC. Sometimes he gets too passive but I expect the game plan to call for him to extend the defense behind the arc.

The Clippers defense has been brutal in the second half and especially janky at home. I know DEN doesn't cover as regularly as we like but this is a great spot for them. LAC is 2-8 ATS last 10 overall and 0-5 last 5 at home. They have failed to cover those games by: 23, 23, 26.5, 24.5, .5. Yeah. LAC are 29th in defending the 3-ball since the ASG, yuck, and they are 28th at home since the ASG, allowing 118/G. DEN needs to take care of business if they want a top seed. LAC seem kind of aimless to me these days.

No time to fool around here for Denver if the Nuggets want the top seed in the West for the playoffs, which is why the Joker is expected to be ready tonight despite appearing on the injury report with wrist and hip issues. Jamal Murray (knee), who has missed two weeks, remains iffy, though Denver has managed to stay afloat in his absence. Meanwhile, it looks like Kawhi (knee) is out again for the Clips, who folded like a tent without him on Tuesday at Sacto, and have actually dropped five straight at Crypto.com. Play Nuggets