This was 41.5 but I’ll still take the under at 40.5. The Bulls play excellent D v opposing backcourts and there should be value in fading a number that is not discounted despite the bad matchup.

We seem to be in the midst of another adjustment in NBA "totals" that have started to trend back to the "over" side after about a month's-worth of lower-scoring games following the All-Star break. As the numbers adjust slowly, now might be the time to look for value on the "over" side, which the Hawks have been providing with seven straight landing that way. Meanwhile, the Bulls are "over" 7-3 in their last ten and have landed "over" in five straight second nights of back-to-backs (last night it was a surprise win at Minnesota). Play Hawks-Bulls "Over"

Dejounte Murray has stepped up in a big way after the Hawks lost Trae Young to a potential season ending injury. Dejounte is averaging 40.8 PRA without Young on the floor, compared to 31.2 PRA when the pair shared the backcourt. He will face a Bulls team that has been exceptional against opposing PGs all season long, surrendering the second fewest points, in addition tot he fourth fewest rebounds to the position. Atlanta Forward Jalen Johnson is also questionable and could return to the lineup which would could result in decreased usage for Murray as well. This is a must win and important game for teams, look for a low scoring paced down environment.

I love the way the Hawks have played in their recent homestand and believe it will carry over here. Best outside shooting of the season, and showing well vs the likes of BOS and MIL. ATL 4-1 ATS last 5. CHI stinks at home 3-7 ATS last 10 there, 8-12 ATS as a home favorite, and 3-8 ATS last 11 overall. Bulls have lost 7 of 11 home games since ASG and are just 17th in home scoring in that span and 24th in points allowed at home since ASG. Bulls not special on offense or defense and lack starpower. Covered just 1 of their last 6 games.