Lu Dort has found his stride from deep. He is averaging 2.7 threes in the past six games and is 5-1 to the over. He only hit one last game, but the volume was there with 5 attempts. The minutes and shot volume should be there again for Dort to get back on pace against a Spurs team that has a hard time playing defense.

Josh Giddey isn't playing huge minutes, but he's creating for others when he's on the floor. Giddey racked up nine assists in the past two games versus Houston, a strong defensive team. Now he faces a Spurs team that gives up the fifth-most assists (28.4), and an even higher rate (30.7) over the past three games. Giddey has 11 assists in OKC's two previous meetings with San Antonio this season.

Holmgren is a game removed from a 7-assist outing and was credited with 2 last time out - he also dished twice for easy lay-ups that teammates missed. Holmgren averages 3.7 potential ast/G for the season and 3.5/G on the road in Feb. Spurs played a big lineup in 1st meeting and held Chet in check offensively, but still had 3 assists. Picked up 4 in the most recent meeting. OKC shot 56% FG in that one and 52% in first meeting and they are shooting well lately. SA allows 28.4 asst/G at home (fourth most). If Pop goes big with his lineup, Chet can kick it out for 3 attempts. Holmgren is 21st among all NBA FWD this month averaging 41 passes/G.

SGA does so many things well that it's easy to forget about his ability to frustrate and turnover opponents. He had 7 steals in the first meeting of these teams and 2 in the last one (when Spurs PG Blake Wesley started ... and turned it over 4 times). Spurs had 24 turnovers in the first meeting and 18 in the second. SGA averages 2 steals/G on the road and 2/G over his last 10. OKC is tied for NBA lead with 8.7 steals/G on the road. Spurs are 29th, allowing 8.6 steals/G at home. Spurs home for first time since Feb 3; I expect them to be a little sloppy. SGA is in a rich vein of form. Love his quick hands and instincts

The Thunder have allowed the sixth-most rebounds per game in the league, so the rebounds prop for Victor Wembanyama is one of the first things that I targeted today. The over on his line of 10.5 rebounds has too much juice at -161, so I’ll go with the over for his combined rebounds and assists prop instead. Across his last 11 games, he has combined for at least 15 rebounds and assists seven times. He also posted 16 combined in both of his first two meetings with the Thunder this season.

The young Spurs are reeling and coming off a ridiculous 9-game road trip while the rodeo was in town or whatever. They haven't played at home since Feb. 3 and will probably to do too much. Their losses to OKC this season were emphatic (140-114 and 123-87). OKC has covered 6 in a row, with an avg margin of 13.6 with a low of 7. Not close. OKC is 34-20-1 ATS vs teams allowing 102+ (OKC has 117+ in 8 of last 10) and 30-17-1 ATS with a day off. The spread was -9 last time at SA (again, 140-114). Spurs are 6-7 ATS at home since Christmas. Tough situational spot for them. I like OKC's recent form to continue here.