The discount on Anthony Davis game four points prop is enough for me to jump in. It has come down a full point in a game the Lakers want to win to cement their likelihood to win the series. Davis may have a tendency to be quiet for stretches, but I expect one big quarter to pave the way for his over.

This bet could make me feel stupid in a hurry, but I don't think that will happen. Steph has stayed under this number in all three games this series averaging just 23.3 PPG. The way the Lakers have been defending Curry has really disrupted his flow and has forced him into passing more. Jarred Vanderbilt has done a fantastic job staying with Curry this series. We should see a lot more of Vanderbilt forcing Curry into tough shots. Take the Under here.

Now that this has come all the way down to -135, we'll play it. The Lakers haven't lost at home in this postseason, including the play-in game -- although we are due a "bad" Anthony Davis score game if his 2023 playoff trend is any indication. It didn't used to matter if the Warriors didn't have the size to match up with an opponent as they could shoot their way past anyone, but LA's defense is causing major problems so far. What has happened to Kevon Looney?

Klay Thompson was terrible in Game 3, finishing with only 15 points on 5/14 shooting. When was the last time you remember Klay Thompson having two bad games in a row? Also, Klay has made no secret of how important this series is for him, as he's playing the team he rooted for growing up. He's in his hometown with a bad taste in his mouth. He's going to go off tonight. Plus, even if he's just Normal Klay tonight, he's gone over this total in five of his last seven games. We're not asking for much.

SportsLine is projecting 24 points for Klay Thompson. Come watch the Early Edge in 5 at 4pm ET for the full breakdown. For now, all I will say is Thompson had 25 and 30 points in the first two games against the Los Angeles Lakers and his line for those games was 23.5. After one bad game we will take the 21.5 line discount.

The Warriors are good at home and good in a Game 7 at Sacramento but the reality is they don’t have it on the road. They went 12-33 straight up on the road this season and as an underdog, they went 8-20 SU. Their 127-97 blowout loss at Los Angeles shouldn’t be a shock because they’ve been coming undone on the road all season. This is kind of a must-win for the Warriors so they have that going for them, but the Lakers have someone new step up every game. Maybe it’s Austin Reaves tonight, or maybe it’s Dennis Shroeder. The Warriors had 19 turnovers in Game 3. Lakers to win and cover.

Steve Kerr and the Warriors have been phasing Kevon Looney out of the rotation as a result of his defense coupled with inability to shoot causing spacing issues. Looney is logging just 14 minutes per game over the last two games Golden State is instead opting to go small. This will result in Draymond getting the majority of his minutes at Center where he is their best rebounder and he will run a lot of their offense. If Green is able to stay out of foul trouble he is in a great spot to collect plenty of rebounds and assists. I will be sprinkling on his double double prop (+390) and his triple double prop (+2000) as well. Green has 10 career playoff triple doubles and the Warriors will need him to step up if theyre going to avoid going down 3-1 in this series.

D’Angelo Russell caught fire early in Game 3, which helped the Lakers eventually walk away with a lopsided victory. He finished with 21 points, hitting five three-pointers despite only playing 29 minutes because of the blowout. During the Lakers’ playoff run, he has scored at least 17 points in all four games that they have played at home. This should be a closer game with the Warriors desperately trying to avoid a 3-1 series deficit, so Russell should play enough to have plenty of opportunities to hit the over.