The Nuggets and Grizzlies have split the season series, the latest meeting at Memphis on Feb. 25 resulting in a Grizzlies 112-94 win. The Grizzlies look to make it four straight tonight. The Nuggets come full throttle with all their weapons sitting at 28-4 at home while 5 games above No. 2 seed Memphis. It’s payback time for the Nuggets after last week’s wipeout. The Nuggets must lay down the law at home for a team they’ll likely see in the playoffs. Expect playoff intensity. Nuggets to cover.

The Nuggets are playing at home and this is plus-money. Soon to be Mr. three-peat, Nikola Jokic, has recorded a triple-double in nine straight home games, the longest streak in NBA History. In his last home game against the Grizzlies, Jokic had 13 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists. This play being plus-money is insane.

The home team has blown out the road squad in both meetings this season. I don't like -5 so I'll just play this ML while it's under -200. The Nuggets have just four home losses all season. The chase for the top spot in the West is essentially over already but put a bow on it with a Denver win here to win the season series. Memphis is not good on the road (12-18) and had lost eight straight away until a win at Houston on Wednesday, and I'm not sure the Rockets are even the best basketball team in that city right now. Still no Steven Adams for the Grizz.

This is a hefty line for Murray who is averaging a combined 30.2 PRA this season. Murray has been held under this total in 29 of 49 appearances. It is a tough match up against a Grizzlies squad that are currently first in Defensive Rating. Memphis is also stingy against opposing Point Guards, having surrendered the fourth-fewest points to the position. Murray has struggled throughout his career playing Memphis and has failed to eclipse this line in 12 of 13 career match ups, while scoring only 13.6 points over that sample. Additionally Denver is as healthy as they have been all season and possess no shortage of scorers and play makers. This makes for a nice spot to fade the talented combo guard.

The Nuggets are the best home ATS team in the league, covering the spread 67% of the time on their own court. Coincidentally, my model has Denver covering this number in 67% of its simulations. Memphis has covered in just 34.5% of its road games too. My model expects another big game from Nikola Jokic, and thinks that there's great value in this spread. I'm locking in Denver to cover.

You know the drill. If Jokic is getting plus odds to record a triple-double at home, I’m betting it. He has played 29 home games this season and has recorded a triple-double in 18 of them. In fact, he has posted a triple-double in each of his last nine home games. Further helping his cause in this matchup is that Steven Adams (knee) will remain out for the Grizzlies.