I was tempted to take the Phoenix moneyline and play it with Miami tonight (assuming all the Heat guys other than Kyle Lowry do play) but now that this spread is up to 6, I'll take the points. I'm not sure how healthy Devin Booker really is -- he didn't look all that great in last Thursday's clincher in New Orleans. Phoenix was 3-0 vs. Dallas this year and won each by at least seven points, but that was before the Mavs' big trade. The Suns are actually under .500 ATS at home.

Even with Luka Doncic missing time at the beginning of the series, the Mavericks dispatched the Jazz in the first round. They covered the spread for all three games they played in Utah, even winning one game outright in which they were 8.5-point underdogs. That came on the heels of them going 24-17 ATS on the road during the regular season. With Doncic healthy, and the team firing on all cylinders right now, look for them to cover again.

The Suns have beaten the Mavericks in nine straight meetings and won all three matchups this season by seven points or more. But all of those wins were early in the season against a Dallas squad transitioning into Jason Kidd’s system. Dallas covered its last five against a lazy Jazz defense and kept the last three Under. Phoenix lost twice in the last series to the Pelicans, one of them in Phoenix. I took the points with Dallas.

Game 1 will take place between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns on Monday. It’s a matchup the Suns have dominated by winning nine straight, including all three this season by seven points or more. Expect Phoenix to be prepared to limit Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson’s production, and to play like a top seed.