I have a feeling the Cavaliers are going to come out a little flat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday despite going 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight road games. But Indiana, Toronto and Boston aren’t quite on the same scale of difficulty as Golden State. The Warriors embarrassed the Cavs in Oakland the last time they played, when Cleveland's big three played, and they won Game 1 in last year’s Finals by 15 points. Golden State’s defense leads the way here and gets the cover.

With both teams well rested I give the edge to the visiting Cleveland team. LeBron James is the best player on the planet and by a wide margin, but this play isn't about LeBron. The rest is going to be critical for Tristan Thompson and Kyrie Irving, the two most important players for Cleveland in this game and series. Cavs +7 is the play.

A healthy Steph Curry and addition of Kevin Durant have spiked this spread. Yet, I look for two keys to stand out in Game 1. The Cavaliers have won by beating Golden State at its own offense. Last postseason, they shot 40 percent from three-point range and this year a league-best 44 percent (five percentage points better than the Warriors). Yet, the key in Game 1 is the Cavaliers’ small-ball lineup. Tristan Thompson's versatility proved critical last year as he averaged a double-double. Not to mention Kevin Love's all-around game. Grab the Cavaliers to cover Game 1.

We've been seeing Cleveland free roll offensively, with little emphasis on defense, helping 15 of its last 21 go Over the total. But I think that mentality changes in the NBA Finals. They'll get after it on defense and also face resistance from the Warriors defense, which lead the NBA playoffs by keeping opponents to 41.6 percent shooting from the field. The last three meetings between these squads have stayed Under. I'm expecting Game 1 to be the highest total posted of the series. Under is the top play here.

The part of the Warriors' game that gets overlooked is their defense. They're first in the NBA in opponent's field goal percentage and first in opponent's three-point shooting percentage. They play great team defense. This is the first time in NBA history that the same two teams are meeting in the Finals for the third straight year. That makes it a rivalry, and I love to go Under in rivalry games.

The Warriors have covered 11 straight road games, but they're not nearly as profitable at home. Now they're facing a Cavaliers team that's covered four of the past five meetings, not to mention enters the NBA Finals on a 7-0-1 ATS run on the road. I like Golden State to win the series, but the Cavs, led by the unstoppable Kyrie Irving, to make Game 1 very competitive. Take the points.