The Mariners have won 11 of their last 14 games, and I like them to stay hot despite George Kirby's recent struggles. Kirby dominated in his last start in Baltimore, last August, when he tossed seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. Orioles starter Brandon Young is 4-1 with a 3.47 ERA, and the team has won his last six starts. But advanced metrics show he's been fortunate. Back the visitors.

Baltimore had been playing fairly well of late entering the set but has dropped the first two. The Mariners' bullpen is pretty taxed behind George Kirby (5-5, 4.04 ERA), who has been knocked around in four straight outings to see his season ERA rise from 2.84. The Orioles' Brandon Young (4-1, 3.47 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise. No Mariners batters have seen him. A ton of Orioles have seen Kirby and a handful have had some success led by Gunnar Henderson (.438 BA).