It’s a bullpen day for San Diego. The Padres currently own the best bullpen in the majors with a 2.97 ERA. Los Angeles sends out Clayton Kershaw who owns a 3.89 home ERA but backed by a sub-par bullpen with a 4.22 ERA. Both teams have been hitting lefties well on the season, but the Padres have huge edge with their bullpen and have been playing the better baseball of late.

An important series lies ahead in the NL West, as the Dodgers find themselves a game back of the San Diego Padres. Both teams are going in opposite directions as the Padres have won five straight, and the Dodgers have lost four straight. The bats have not been the problem for the Dodgers. Freddie Freeman after a prolonged slump in June and July, is hitting .326 in August. Take his total bases over as he provides a spark to the Dodgers offense tonight.

Few hitters have had the success Manny Machado has against Clayton Kershaw. He's 13-for-42 with 4 HRs against the future Hall-of-Famer. Machado hasn't homered in his last 13 games, so we're leaning into the "he's due" narrative. He's hit 10 HRs in 131 ABs vs. lefties and 10 HRs in 335 ABs vs. righties this season, so the model favors him in this lefty matchup. Machado has also been better on the road (.892 OPS) than at home (.805 OPS). We set his line around +250 to homer.