We understand the risks associated with backing the Pirates, even with Paul Skenes on the mound. Still, Skenes remains dominant, especially at PNC Park, where he's posted a 1.87 ERA in ten starts, and throwing out last Saturday's start in Denver, Skenes has an 0.67 ERA since the start of July. That can be enough to overlook Pittsburgh's offensive shortcomings. Meanwhile, though still in the NL wild card race, not sure about trusting the Reds, who lost recent series vs. the lowly Braves and Nats, while Brady Singer's road numbers (including a 5.73 ERA) simply haven't been consistent enough this season. Play Pirates on the Run Line.

I will touch on Paul Skenes in the Thursday newsletter but long story short: He has utterly dominated the Reds in his brief career. And I mean utterly. But here's what probably happens the way things are going: Skenes throws five innings of one-hit ball and leaves with a 2-0 lead ... only for the bullpen to give up a three-run jack in the ninth and lose 3-2. We shall risk it. Reds pitcher Brady Singer has a 5.73 road ERA. First 5 is probably fine too but this is cheaper. I slightly worry about a 0-0 score through five with that iffy Pittsburgh offense, but I guess you could say that through nine too. Obviously listed pitchers.