Corey Seager is hitless in 13 career at-bats against George Kirby, which is rare for him, but he's only struck out twice in those ABs. He's posted 90+ mph exit velocities in 3 of his last 4 at-bats against Kirby, so we're leaning into the "he's due" narrative. Kirby has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season—7 of the 9 home runs he's allowed have come from the left side, and he's giving up a .789 OPS to lefties compared to .566 to righties. We set Seager's line at +366 to homer.

The Mariners have clearly won the trade deadline, previously landing Josh Naylor from Arizona and then adding Eugenio Suarez last night -- plus reliever Caleb Ferguson from Pittsburgh. Seattle looks dangerous all of a sudden behind a stellar rotation. It's George Kirby in this one, and he has had a quality start in four of his past six. He hasn't faced Texas this year but dominated the Rangers last year at 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA. Texas is nine games under .500 away this year. Kumar Rocker is 1-4 with a 9.91 ERA on the road. More than OK with -1.