Sandy Alcantara has not had the best start to this season, as he owns a 5.30 home ERA. However, he’s off two back-to-back quality outings allowing only two earned runs in 12 innings. Mick Abel makes his fourth start of the season and off his worst start, allowing three earned runs in four innings against the Cubs. He has a favorable matchup against Miami as they’re only hitting .245 on the year at home. The Marlins have continued to struggle scoring runs as they’ve only scored four runs, or more, in two of their last seven days.

The Phillies and Marlins have gone over the total six straight times while splitting three games apiece as they begin a four-game series in Miami. The reason I say under is because it looks like Sandy Alcantara is back to being his normal self with his last two games going under and his last game being his best, going six innings and no runs allowed against the Pirates. The Marlins average 9.4 runs a game, but I think it'll be different today with Mick Abel only allowing four runs in his three starts. Just the under.

Kyle Schwarber has 42 plate appearances against Sandy Alcantara in his career, but he has yet to hit a home run off him. However, he is 10-for-35 against Alcantara, so he's had a good amount of success. Schwarber is off to a slow start in June after a hot start to the season, but he does have 2 home runs over his last 4 games. Alcantara has put together back-to-back strong starts, but those came against Colorado and Pittsburgh. Even with those outings, his ERA sits at 7.14. Left-handed batters have an .825 OPS against Alcantara this season. We set Schwarber's line at +260 to homer.