This is the first meeting between these bitter rivals so far. Brayan Bello owns a 1.45 ERA in five starts against New York. Luis Gil comes off his worst start since the end of April, allowing three runs in 5.2 innings. However, the total continues to move down in this hitter friendly ballpark. The under has come home eight times in the last 11 meetings.

Luis Gil has been excellent this year and I don't expect that to slow down too much at Fenway. A different story with Brayan Bello who has been tagged in each of his last two starts against the White Sox and Tigers. Not exactly a 'get right' spot against this Yankees lineup which has been feasting as of late. Lay the 0.5 run and look for the Yankees to get out of the gates early.

The Yankees have won three of the last four over the Red Sox. Yankees are 49-22 and 27-12 on the road for a total profit margin that is plus-1981. They average 5.06 runs per game and only allow 3.27. Luis Gil is starting which means the Yankees are going to win or at least they've won eight in a row with him starting. Brayan Bello has lost his last two starts, both were his fault as he gave up five runs to the White Sox for the loss and four runs to Detroit in a loss. Yankees to win.

I don't price this as a rivalry game, because the Yankees are in a different class, and they have their top starter on the bump tonight. Fenway Park will play just fine for the Yanks bats. NY has 25 wins on the RL on the road this season, tied for most in MLB. Brayan Bello has been Sox most erratic starter, and he's been getting tagged lately. Yanks have far superior lineup and bullpen. Most Yankees games are not close.

This might get rained out. Think it was the best thing for the Yankees to lose yesterday -- we told you it was a potential trap/lookahead game in KC -- in terms of winning today. Refocus and such. Boston's Brayan Bello has really good career numbers against the Bombers but hasn't been very good this season overall as Bello has allowed at least three runs in five straight starts, a stretch in which he has a 6.75 ERA. On the opposite side, Luis Gil has been unreal for New York. That has to calm down eventually but few Red Sox have seen him. May come back and play Gil Over 16.5 outs, but I worry about rain interrupting his start.

Can't win 'em all! We can excuse the Yankees for Thursday's loss at Kansas City that denied a four-game sweep, but the indicators still point upward for NY after winning 11 of the past 14 games. The Yanks still rallied late to take the lead on Thursday before a desperate 9th inning push by KC, and a 2-out, 2-run double by Makiel Garcia to win the game. The win percentage in games started lately by unlikely AL Cy Young contender Luis Gil is even better...8-0 in his last eight starts as Gill (8-1, 2.02 ERA) continues to impress. Speaking of impressing, Bosox starter Brayan Bello doing little in his last two starts, roughed up for a 7.36 ERA. Play Yankees on Run Line