My best play of the night is under 4.5 runs in the first 5…..plenty of those in the market but I’ll also play small here. Simply, I believe in Sonny and don’t believe in the Cards offense.

Dean Kremer has been pitching better of late. He’s had five strikeouts, or more, in three of his last four outings, striking out 10 batters in two of those games. St. Louis currently has the 12th highest strikeout percentage in the league. The Cardinals have been averaging 9.33 strikeouts a game over their last three as well.

It's very fair to begin speculating on the current effectiveness of Cards starter Sonny Gray, who has tired noticeably and lost velocity once beyond the third inning or so in his last two starts (with an ERA of 9.90), suggesting that his recent troubles have to do with much more than simply pitching away from Busch Stadium. He's also allowed four homers across his last two starts, another red flag. Granted, Dean Kremer off of a shaky outing on the O's side, but Baltimore had won in this three previous starts. The Orioles are also 29-15, the Cards only 20-26. Wrong team favored? Play Orioles on Money Line

The Orioles are 29-15 and 12-5 on the road. They average five runs a game. The Cardinals only average 3.8 runs a game. The Orioles are playing great ball lately and have won six out of their last nine, consistent as always. Two of their recent losses were by one run. Sonny Gray is a tough matchup but there's good reason for him being priced so high. However, in Gray’s last two starts, he's allowed 11 runs combined. Orioles to win.

This number is available at much better prices on MGM and Fanduel so make sure to shop around and not bet the juiced odds on Caesars. Anytime we can get Sonny Gray at a line under 6.5 I definitely have an interest, as his floor this year has been at 6 K's for basically every start. Now facing the O's and their bevy of left handed hitters, which Gray has improved his strikeout rate, whiff rate and swinging strike rate against this year. I think Gray leans on the strikeout to work through trouble here and gets us a 6th K. Shoutout to Propstarz jumping on this one at the open for a great price, I just played this at -120 on Fanduel.

Sonny Gray has been one of the few lone bright spots for the Cardinals this season and the 3x All-Star is firmly in the Cy Young mix. Gray is also posting career a best K Rate paired with top notch underlying metrics. Gray is sporting a career best SwStr%, CSW%, and has recorded at least 6 Ks in his last six consecutive outings. I like Gray's chances of making it seven straight games even in a tough matchup against the Orioles.

Sonny Gray is having a wonderful season for the Cardinals, but they can't hit a lick, their best player (Contreras) is on the IL and they are way out of their league here. BAL LH bats like Henderson and O'Hearn and Adley (when he's on the left side) are going to find plenty of gaps in this ballpark. Cards can't control the run game and Kremer looks like he finally trusts all five of his pitches. STL is 4-13 vs teams that are above .500. O' have been one of best road teams in MLB for last two years.