It’s a tricky spot tonight as the Baltimore Orioles begin a series in Southern California against the LA Angels. On the mound will be Albert Suarez making his second start for Baltimore. He lacks big league experience but is a veteran at the age of 34. Additionally, Baltimore’s potent bats figure to give Reid Detmers issues as the Orioles are coming off a hot hitting series against the Royals. Take Baltimore on a fair money line price.

Reid Detmers has gotten off to a fantastic start to the season but I'd argue he is due for a letdown performance and isn't current level of play isn't quite sustainable. He gets a really tough draw against an excellent Orioles lineup that ranks in the top 10 against opposing southpaws for two consecutive seasons. Detmers was held under 6 IP in 18/28 starts last season. I think Baltimore gets to him in this one and as a result he doesn't go a full 6.

Los Angeles has lost its last four games. Reid Detmers went five innings, only allowing two hits and one earned run against the Orioles already this season. Albert Suarez pitched well in his debut, going five scoreless innings and faces a Los Angeles team hitting .231 with a .659 OPS against righties at home. The Orioles still have the better lineup and bullpen.

Baltimore is a Top 10 offense against lefties with a .339 wOBA and 124 wRC+. The market probably underrates the Orioles in this spot, and understandably so, because Albert Suarez is back in the Majors for the first time since 2017. In last week's start vs. Minnesota, he allowed three hits and no walks while striking out four in 5.2 scoreless innings.

Reid Detmers has been good to start the season for the Angels, but I like this Orioles offense against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has the ability to run 8 right-handed hitters to start the game if they want to. This is a nice individual matchup for Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Santander. I have the Orioles winning 53 percent of simulations which implies -113.