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Fri 10/15 | 1:07 AM UTC | San Francisco
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
L.A. Dodgers 109-58, -130 ML
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Over 7+100
San Francisco Giants 109-57, +3692 ML
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Under 7-120

Expert Picks

L.A. Dodgers 2 @ San Francisco 1 | 10/15 | 1:07 AM UTC

L.A. Dodgers -105

WIN

ANALYSIS: I almost have to go contrarian here. What's amazing is both teams have won exactly 109 games this year and one won't even reach the NLCS. Let's call the starting pitching matchup of Logan Webb and Julio Urias a wash. Webb will be the youngest Giants pitcher ever in a winner-take-all game, but the 20-game winner Urias is barely older. I favor the LA lineup slightly and the bullpen a decent amount because there's no way that two of the Giants' best relievers, Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee, are 100 percent as both worked plenty in Games 3-4. Yes, Wednesday was an off day, but still. Even the Giants beat writers admit this. The Dodgers are in much better shape in the 'pen and have outscored the Giants 16-9 in the series. LA also has played its share of winner-take-all games the past two seasons.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2763 280-193-6 IN LAST 479 MLB PICKS
+544 16-7 IN LAST 23 LAD ML PICKS
+405 4-0 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS

Season Splits

109-58, -130 ML
109-57, +3692 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
65%
109-58, -130
109-57, +3690
65%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
59%
49-34, -486
55-28, +1166
66%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
0%
0-3, -300
70-29, +1550
70%
When Line was -114 to +116
MONEY LINE
When Line was -126 to +104
0%
0-3, -300
26-15, +880
63%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
0%
0-3, -300
43-16, +1012
72%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
54%
29-24, -644
33-22, +1722
60%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
45%
22-26, -1210
21-19, +984
52%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
57%
15-11, -282
21-5, +1537
80%
vs SF
HEAD TO HEAD
vs LAD
47%
11-12, -441
12-11, +624
52%
when Corey Knebel starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Logan Webb starts
75%
3-1, +59
22-5, +1319
81%