Expert Picks
Two former Segunda rivals face off. ...
Season opener for both, and backing home teams in La Liga so far has been wise. Not that I'd most likely play a road team. Real Betis finished 14 spots higher in the 2025-26 table. The Green-and-Whites, who beat Arsenal in a recent friendly, had the fifth-most home points in the league last campaign. Real Sociedad had three road wins in 19 tries. And the visitors are quite banged up for an opener, missing regulars in Gonçalo Guedes (8G, 1A) and Jon Gorrotxategi (1G, 3A) -- that latter one could be my last name, and I'd still spell it wrong. Betis has easily won the past two in Seville in the series.
Alaves looked a lot better in its opener than Rayo Vallecano did, but Alaves was home and its opponent in Getafe was down to 10 men late in first half. I sure like betting teams in their home openers in American sports, so why not deportes españoles también? Rayo was a tough-luck road loser near the death at Sevilla, 2-1, on a penalty in its opener but has won the past four in this series at home and four of the past five in it overall.
It starts against Malaga, a team Atletico have beaten in six of their last seven meetings. Atletico have scored nine goals in their last five matches but haven’t kept a clean sheet, so BTTS and Over 2.5 are both interesting. Still, I want to target Atletico’s team total. With Almada, Lookman, Kang-in Lee and Grimaldo, there’s plenty of attacking talent. I have Atletico winning something like 3-1 or 4-1.
Last season, Elche finished as La Liga's worst away team with just eight road points and 13 total goals. Deportivo was promoted from the Segunda Division from last campaign so can't say I know a ton about that side yet, but in three August friendlies ahead of this opener none topped 2.5 total goals scored. Los Herculinos allowed the fourth-fewest goals in Segunda in 2025-26 with 44 in 42 matches and kept 11 clean sheets.
Last season, Espanyol finished five spots higher in the La Liga table than Levante, which had just four road wins and a minus-12 goal differential away -- and was nearly relegated. Overall, Levante tied for the most goals allowed in the 2025-26 campaign with 61 when these sides drew both meetings. Espanyol is unbeaten in the past three played at home.
I’m taking the points with Rayo Vallecano on the road against Sevilla. Sevilla weren’t great last season, winning just 12 of 38 matches while losing 19. Rayo were a much tougher out, also winning 12 matches but drawing 14, and they posted a solid 32% clean sheet rate. Rayo also traveled well, finishing eighth in road scoring. With European football on the schedule this season, banking points early is going to matter before the fixture list starts to get crowded. This feels like a spot where Rayo can make life difficult for Sevilla and keep this one close.
I'm stoked for the return of European soccer/football, with La Liga -- think technically that's supposed to run together but my brain won't allow that -- kicking off Saturday. Visiting Getafe already has two injury concerns: Projected starting midfielder Christantus Uche suffered a season-ending injury in a recent friendly. He spent last season mostly on loan in the Premier League with Crystal Palace. Starting defender Kiko Femenia also was injured in a friendly and is in question. Getafe is winless in its three friendlies (one draw). It had a minus-8 goal differential away last La Liga campaign, while Alaves was even on differential at home, where it either won or drew 13 of 19 matches.
The LaLiga relegation race is absolutely insane this season. From 19th on the table to 13th on the table there are only four teams separating these teams. That means that there are multiple teams that could still find themselves being relegated. The only team that is guaranteed at the moment is Real Oviedo. This Elche is the match everyone will be watching. If Elche can win, they are safe. If Elche can get the draw, they are safe unless Mallorca can beat Real Oviedo by 5+ goals. While Girona also need the win here, their form ahs just been so poor in recent weeks, and in a battle of who is slightly less worse, I'm going with Elche to get a point off this match.
My Spanish is a little rusty -- me llamo Mateo; mucho con carne por favor -- but from what I can tell, Getafe will qualify for European soccer (not the Champions League) with a win. The side hasn't played in Europe since the 2019-20 campaign. Osasuna is playing to avoid relegation but seems relatively safe barring a blowout loss. Draw No Bet was invented for spots like this. Getafe won the reverse fixture 3-2.
There are a few things wrong with American sports and one is that kids get a ribbon for just showing up. Yeah, this ain't the SATs where you get points for signing your name (I still managed Under; and continually have nightmares about filling in those little multiple choice dots in a race against time and wish I was kidding). Long story short: This loser Saturday is relegated. A draw and it's Girona kicked. Elche is the worst road team in La Liga with a single away win in 18 matches. I would murder Draw No Bet but it's north of -300.
Barcelona have a chance to finish a great season on a high note against a Valencia side they have dominated. Over the last five meetings, Barcelona have outscored them 24-3. Even with some potential motivation concerns after winning the league, this is still a solid price to back the champions.
Girona are in a must-win spot at home. With three points, they give themselves a real chance to fight off relegation. With a loss, they are going down. I expect a big effort from them, and fortunately, they get an Elche side that has struggled badly away from home this season. Elche have just one road win all year and have lost eight of their last nine away matches. Girona are not exactly a team I trust, but given the situation and the opponent, this feels like a must-play spot.
This is the most lopsided rivalry in Spain right now. Barcelona have won their last five games against Valencia. The last three meetings between these teams finished 7-1 to Barcelona, 5-0 to Barcelona, and 6-0 to Barcelona. Barça have already wrapped up the La Liga title, so they may lack motivation for this game, but odds of -111 on a straight moneyline win for Barcelona look too good to ignore.
Atlético Madrid should be too strong for Girona in this game. Los Rojiblancos have won 14 of their 18 home matches this season, which is an impressive record. Manager Diego Simeone should play his strongest starting XI for this game, as Atlético aren't in any cup competitions, so there's no need to rest players. Girona have slipped down to 15th in La Liga after a six-game winless streak, and they tend to struggle on the road. They've only won three away games all season, so they could be overpowered at the Metropolitano.