Wyoming has lost its last two road games...

Auburn hasn't played Tennessee since 2020...

Florida State is underrated here...

Could Ohio State lose twice in first 5 games?

Alabama has flexed its way to a 4-0 record by beating mediocre programs like South Carolina, Florida State, and Kentucky. They even had trouble at home with Florida State failing to cover 18.5; however, they managed to score a bunch, getting all four of their games over the total. But I don't think the Crimson Tide are ready for the road at Starkville, Mississippi, and a 4-0 football program that is playing way above their rating, going 4-0 ATS as well. More cowbell, I need more cowbell. Mississippi State comes off of beating a good Missouri squad 31-24. Quarterback Kamario Taylor has thrown 14 touchdowns to only 2 picks and averages 5 yards per rush. It'll be his talent that beats Alabama.

Pittsburgh goes to Virginia Tech, and both teams are 4-0 and 3-1 ATS. The difference with Virginia Tech rests with their coach, James Franklin, who was hired this season after the team had a three-win season last year. Coaching matters, and Franklin is the perfect example of why. Pitt has an average score of 18-14, while Virginia Tech averages 43-16. The spread has dropped from Tech -3.5 to -2 in this game. so I'll lay it. Electric atmosphere in Blacksburg at night. Virginia Tech to win.

The weather in Tulsa Thursday night as they welcome North Texas is expected to be 73° with 6 mph winds and a 50% chance of rain. The key weather factor for this bet is the 6 mph wind, which on paper isn't a big deal. The total hasn't reacted much, from an opener of 58 down to 57.5. Tulsa has stayed under all four games, thanks to outstanding defense. They held Oklahoma State to only 10 points, and since that opener, OSU has beaten Oregon 39-31 and won at West Virginia last week, 41-24. They've covered in all three of their games since losing at Tulsa. This game stays under.

We've got a Big Ten battle in Los Angeles between high-scoring Oregon and USC. The spread has gone from Oregon -6 down to -3, and the total has dropped from 64.5 to 61.5. The Ducks have won the last four meetings, including last year's 42-27 victory in Eugene. Oregon averages 506 yards per game while scoring 49 points a game. USC's offense averages 500 yards per game while scoring 43 points a game. USC is undefeated at 4-0 while Oregon is 2-1, losing at Oklahoma State 39-31 as 23.5-point favorites. USC's defense has been terrible on the road, while Oregon's defense has struggled against decent offenses. It all points to the over.

James Madison has won and covered all three of their games, while Old Dominion hasn't covered any of their three games, winning just once. James Madison opened as a 10.5-point favorite, and now they're -5.5. This is a team that has an average score of 44-9 this year. They're playing an Old Dominion squad that has seven turnovers this year. James Madison had quality wins against Liberty as a short favorite and also at San Diego State as an underdog. I like James Madison QB Camden Coleman’s veteran leadership who started his career at Richmond. JMU beat ODU last year, 63-27. James Madison to cover on the road.

Mississippi and Florida are both 3-0 on the season, and they meet Saturday in Gainesville, but I think the wrong team is favored. Florida is -3.5. The Gators return three starters on each side of the ball and come off a 4-8 season where they were 2-6 in the SEC, which includes losing 34-24 at Ole Miss. They won at Auburn and at home against punching bags Campbell and FAU. The problem I have with Florida being favored is that Ole Miss has already beaten ranked teams like LSU and Louisville. When I see Florida at home, I see 4 losses last year. It wasn't so formidable then, and I don't think Mississippi will be afraid of the swamp. Ole Miss +3.5.

Indiana has won and covered their last two meetings with Northwestern, but Northwestern comes into Friday night’s meeting at a perfect 2-0 straight up and ATS. Indiana's won all three of their games so far, but they haven't covered any. They haven't allowed a point in their last two games. The spreads were too high to cover. It was -57.5 against Howard who they put up a 55-0 score on. But the positive news is that Northwestern put a 41-7 beatdown on Colorado last week, forcing four turnovers and holding the ball for 37 minutes. That win gives Northwestern a boost in the ratings that makes the spread only -20.5. Indiana to win by 30 or more against Northwestern.

The last time Liberty played against Coastal Carolina was in 2020, with QBs Malik Willis and Grayson McCall. Coastal Carolina won that game in overtime, 37-34, but this year's Chanticleers have a new coach, Ryan Beard, and a new QB, Deuce Bailey, both from Missouri State. All Bailey has done is throw 8 touchdowns with no interceptions. They don't have any wins on the road yet. At home, they'll give Liberty trouble, who lost their only road game at James Madison. But last week Liberty put 51 points on Ball State, making it their first cover in seven games. Despite it being 66° in Conway, SC, with 13 mph winds and a 36% chance of rain, I still like the over for both teams.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt has thrown two touchdown passes for LSU this season while also tossing four interceptions. It's just two games, but it's funny to see Leavitt on the injury report as questionable for Saturday's game against Ole Miss, the team that Lane Kiffin used to coach. Apparently, that's what Lane Kiffin did regularly at Ole Miss, and everyone involved is brushing it off with a "nothing" statement. When Las Vegas heard about the news, they didn't blink, and the point spread stayed the same. Ole Miss to cover.

UTEP had a practice game last week against Texas Southern and won 51-10, with sophomore QB EJ Moore finding his way after stops at UCF and Incarnate Word. He showed everyone his skills with 4 TD passes and no picks, along with 49 rushing yards and 1 score. Michigan has been walking a tightrope their first two games, with a 13-12 win over Western Michigan that they probably should have lost after getting hosed on two Hail Marys, and then shaping up and beating Oklahoma 17-10 as an underdog. Both games have gone under, and I think that's going to be what Michigan does the rest of the year. Play it slow and conservative, making things simple for Bryce Underwood. UTEP to cover.

Rutgers started last year off 3-0 and gave us all grand illusions of what could be in Greg Schiano's immediate future. They would lose seven of nine in Big Ten conference play. Schiano started the 2026 season with great hopes but then lost to UMass 37-21 as 29.5 favorites. They lost last week to Boston College 28-21, and now they get USC, who is 3-0 but only 1-2 against the spread. It's a long road trip for USC, but they need to show extreme strength in their Big Ten opener to gain more confidence. One goal for USC. It's playoffs or bust. USC to cover.