Indiana has emerged onto the scene and shocked the norms of college football by going undefeated this season, beating Alabama and Oregon in the playoff games by a combined score of 94-25. Do you think they can cover against Miami laying nine points or less? I knew in the Big Ten championship game that we were seeing a special kind of team when they knocked off the best defense I've ever seen in Ohio State. Coach Curt Cignetti has been at Indiana for 2 years, and he's 26-2. His coaching reminds me of Nick Saban, who has all angles covered for his team, and he demands excellence. One fumble lost all season is one of the minor details Cignetti has preached. Indiana for the win.

This national semifinal game should probably be the national championship matchup. The storyline from the first meeting was that Oregon only got 81 yards on 30 rushes and was also sacked six times. Indiana took the game over in the 4th quarter, a sign of things to come from head coach Curt Cignetti, who has taken Indiana to a 25-2 record in his two seasons. Cignetti is a stone-cold winner. In this recent era of NIL signings, there is no better example of changing a program into a winner than Cignetti. The SEC had control of the college football landscape, but now the Big Ten is going for its third straight championship. I think Indiana is the team to win from the Big Ten.

I'm looking at the Peach Bowl total over 46.5, with Oregon being the key to the game getting over. My thinking is that Indiana will control the tempo, and Oregon's going to have to catch up. Oregon dominated Texas Tech 23-0 last week, but the week before, against James Madison, it was 51-34. They let the Dukes back in. Oregon went 7-7 to the over this season. Indiana went 8-6 to the over, scored 30 points at Oregon on October 11th, and scored 41.6 points a game this season, which was fifth in the nation. Over is the play.

We've got Miami (12-2) from the ACC against Mississippi (13-1) from the SEC in the Fiesta Bowl, and my main issue is that Miami didn't even win the ACC or participate in the championship game, thanks to losses at SMU and the home loss to Louisville, which also didn't make the ACC championship game. Why do we have conference championship games? Miami has won the last six games, and their defense all of a sudden came out against Texas A&M and Ohio State, but I think that team is somewhere in the locker room that allowed 26 points to SMU. Overall, Mississippi is the better team and will prove it tonight.

USC and TCU meet in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, and both teams have key players opting out for multiple reasons. Some players are opting out because they have their eyes on the NFL draft, and others are opting out because they're entering the transfer portal, and that's one of the reasons I'm making my bet on USC. Jaden Maiava is the starting QB, and he's coming back to USC. He'll be missing his top three receivers, but the main point is the starting quarterback is still there, while TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is entering the transfer portal, which means former Vanderbilt starter Ken Seals is getting the nod. USC to win by 10 or more.

Illinois and Tennessee meet for the first time in the Music City Bowl in Nashville, where both starting quarterbacks are expected to play. However, the line has dropped from Tennessee -6.5 to -3 because Tennessee has more players opting out. Illinois left tackle JC Davis is declaring for the NFL draft and opting out, while the Volunteers have five key players opting out, including two starting defensive backs. Both teams finished the regular season at 8-4, but it was those four losses that helped make my decision for this game. Tennessee lost to Georgia by 3, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt. Illinois lost to Indiana, Ohio State, Washington, and Wisconsin. Losing to Wisconsin is a big question mark for me. Tennessee to cover.

Utah State and Washington State both finished 6-6 on the year, but head coach Jimmy Rogers left the Washington State crew after the regular season ended. Defensive coordinator Jesse Bobbitt is going to serve as an interim coach for the bowl game and then depart to become Rogers' defensive coordinator at Iowa State. Coach Bronco Mendenhall is still there for Utah State, and probably the most exciting thing I have to say about Utah State is that they were 10-2 against the spread. That's third best in the nation behind Ohio State and Texas Tech, which was a season's best 12-1 ATS. Quarterback Bryson Barnes started for Utah State all season, and he's playing this game. Give me Utah State to win.

The main story of this game between Miami and Texas A&M is who has the home-field advantage, and that's Texas A&M. This is the second year of the playoff format, and the first year we saw the home teams dominate. The collegiate home crowd with the national championship at stake, that's a big deal. Who's going to turn the ball over, and I'm betting it'll be Miami with quarterback Carson Beck on the road. The two losses this year that Miami had he threw four interceptions against Louisville and two interceptions at SMU. If they fail, it will be from turnovers and pressure from the best pass rush in the nation. Texas A&M to cover.

I've changed my opinion on Alabama for this game, and I'm siding with Oklahoma almost entirely because they're at home. In this playoff round last year, all of the home teams had a huge edge that carried them to victory. I think Norman, Oklahoma, has the edge that Alabama on the road can't match. I've been watching Alabama since October 25, which was a game at Columbia against South Carolina, who came to play as a 12.5 point underdog. Alabama won 29-22, but they didn't cover. They looked sluggish against LSU, and then Oklahoma came to Tuscaloosa and laid down some defense, winning 23-21. Alabama will struggle to run the ball. The Oklahoma defense and the crowd at Norman, Oklahoma, lead the Sooners.

No. 1 Ohio State is playing No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, with both teams 12-0. It's never happened before in the Big Ten. My take is that the Buckeye defense has been taken to unparalleled heights with Matt Patricia running his unique NFL style schemes, which made Ohio State the No. 1 defense, allowing only 203 yards per game and 7.8 points per game. The Buckeyes are the highest-rated team in college football, and yet the point spread never catches up to them. They're 10-1-1 against the spread on the year. Never seen that before. The number is still chasing them, and this week we get to lay less than four points? Yeah, I'm on the Buckeyes.

The Mountain West Conference championship game takes us to Boise, Idaho, and it's going to be 42° with rain and overcast, but the winds are only 4 mph, and that's what's key in this game. UNLV went 10-2 this season, and Boise State went 8-4, but Boise State is the favorite. UNLV has a balanced attack averaging 463 yards a game, which ranks 30th in the nation. The problem they have is their defense, which allows 421 a game. Maddux Madsen is expected to be back at quarterback for Boise and piloted the first meeting this year, winning 56-31. The backup QB lost to San Diego State and Fresno. UNLV's average score this season was 37-28. I like the over despite the rain.

There hasn't been any Ohio State team that's been 11-0, covering nine of the games with one loss and one push. It’s amazing that a team can have the highest rating in college football, and it's still not high enough because Ohio State keeps covering every inflated number that is thrown their way. They haven't beaten Michigan the last 4 years for whatever reason Ryan Day is trying to figure out, but this team will excel at Michigan regardless of Day. The No. 1 defense in college football that allows only 206 yards and 7.6 points a game. This is a special Ohio State squad, maybe the best I've ever seen out of Ohio State, that also covers the spread in just about every game.

Alabama has won the last two seasons against LSU and four of the last five meetings. They come off a 7-point win over South Carolina, which did not cover the 12.5 spread. But they've had a week off to game plan for LSU, and I think they come out fired up like they were against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Missouri. Alabama is coming with the 24th-ranked defense that allows 312 yards per game. LSU's offense imploded internally, and they only average 355 yards per game, which ranks 98th. That's basically why LSU hasn't lived up to its potential. LSU's offense only scores 25 points per game, and Alabama's defense only allows 18 points per game. I think Alabama wins by two touchdowns or more.

Cincinnati lost its first game of the year against Nebraska 20-17, but since then has reeled off seven straight wins. They've covered six of those games, and I like them to cover at Utah Saturday night. It's going to be a wild scene in Salt Lake City with Utah (6-2) and its 12th-ranked defense that allows only 283 yards per game. The reason No. 17 Cincinnati wins this game is because of Brendan Sorsby, who doesn't make mistakes. He's got 19 touchdowns and only one interception, and he's been the reason Cincinnati is tied atop the Big 12 at 5-0. I look for Cincinnati to win, but I'll take the points to be conservative.

UNLV had the week off and returns home this week, where they face 5-3 New Mexico. UNLV comes off a loss at Boise State, which was their first loss of the season, making them 6-1. No sweat on undefeated UNLV talk because it's never happened. Their average score is 37-33 with a balanced offensive attack, but the 131st-ranked defense is allowing 461 yards per game. However, they don't make mistakes. They are No. 2 in the nation with a +10 turnover margin. I think UNLV wins this game with an extra week to prepare.