In beaten in four home matches while scoring 10 goals …

Tottenham are unbeaten in two, worth a bet …?

This could be horrible or we could get all the way up to +300 ...

Over in back to back games with a line that is soft ...

This number has cleared in four of five this season ...

Darius Acuff Jr. got his welcome-to-the-league moment in Game 1, shooting an abysmal 5-for-24 from the field. So why am I taking his points over against a premium defender like Jrue Holiday? Volume. Taking 24 shots tells me this team trusts him to have the ball in his hands and fire at will. Frankly, he could’ve taken 30 or more shots if he hadn’t passed up some good looks. Against almost anyone else, I believe this line would be 19.5, so we’re getting a discount because of the matchup. I also like that he’s playing at home. Playing in front of his own fans should give him a little extra juice to clear this number.

I'm backing Minnesota's team total over, largely because of the ridiculous 3-point volume from Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball. Edwards attempted 17 triples in the opener, knocking down nine, while Ball added five of his own. The Timberwolves finished with 21 made 3s and 131 points against a Miami defense that's supposed to be one of the better units in the East. Now they get an Orlando team that just surrendered 132 points to Atlanta. I'm not expecting Edwards to shoot over 50% from deep every night, but the volume is there. With two guards who have the green light to fire away, Minnesota has more than enough offensive firepower to clear 116.5.

I’m taking the over in this matchup between two teams that can score but have struggled defensively. Ipswich Town have done well finding the back of the net, but keeping opponents off the scoresheet has been a completely different story. Nottingham Forest haven’t kept a clean sheet in what feels like forever, and their willingness to shoot should create plenty of scoring opportunities. Ipswich aren’t exactly a defensive powerhouse either, which makes this a favorable matchup for both attacks. The over has cashed in three of Ipswich’s last four matches. I expect both teams to find the back of the net, and there will be plenty of chances to get a third.

Tyrese Haliburton is finally back after missing last season with a torn Achilles, and I like him to pick up where he left off. Before the injury, he averaged 9.2 assists per game, and his preseason performance suggests he's healthy. I love the additions of Ivica Zubac as a pick-and-roll partner and Kelly Oubre Jr. to space the floor. Both should give Haliburton more opportunities to create. The matchup works out well, especially with the total sitting at 239.5. This should be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate, giving Haliburton plenty of assist opportunities.

I love Tyrese Haliburton’s assists, but I’m also backing him to score. He made it clear this offseason that he felt slighted by the NBA starting his comeback with a random road game in New Orleans, and you could tell it got to him. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder. . This game has the highest total on the board and one of the fastest paces of the night. He’s moved past that minor ankle tweak, and there’s no minutes restriction holding him back. I’ll take him to clear 18.5 and sprinkle a little on a 25-point night.

I’m fading Manchester United and backing Como on the moneyline. Take the crest off United’s jersey and Como would be closer to -140 in this spot. United’s start has been a disaster. They haven’t beaten anyone outside of Sabah and teams battling relegation. This was always a concern with Michael Carrick trying to balance Premier League and Champions League matches. The squad has enough depth, but Carrick hasn’t shown he knows how to manage it through a demanding schedule. Meanwhile, Cesc Fabregas has Como playing some of the best football in Italy. There’s a clear difference in form, confidence and coaching right now. Getting plus money on Como at home is a bet I’m not passing up.

The 2025-26 numbers support a lower-scoring game. Oklahoma City ranked first in defensive rating (107.7), while San Antonio finished third (111.3). Both ranked top three in opponent effective field goal percentage and top five in limiting points in the paint. Neither plays particularly fast, with San Antonio 13th in pace (99.9) and Oklahoma City 16th (99.3). Oklahoma City also ranked second in opponent turnover percentage (14.6%), a potential problem for San Antonio’s fourth-ranked offense. Those defensive metrics are even more impressive considering OKC played most of the game without Jaylen Williams. With the modest pace, the under 231.5 is my preferred play.

This feels like a major class difference. AEK Athens are a solid team domestically, but it’s hard to think they have success at the Etihad. They’re coming off a 3-1 loss to Shakhtar Donetsk in a match where they had more shots, more touches in the opposition box, and five big chances compared to Shakhtar’s two. Yet they still conceded three goals. Their weak back line is why I'm backing City. If AEK are struggling defensively against weaker opposition, how are they supposed to contain Erling Haaland and company? I fully expect City to score three or four goals here. Three gives us a great chance to cover, while four should put this bet comfortably out of reach.

I love the Asian total over 3 goals here. This feels like a game that starts at 2-1 either way, especially with how leaky both teams have been defensively. Porto have played in some high-scoring matches recently, including 3-2 against Betis, 3-1 against Benfica and 4-1 against Casa Pia. PSV haven't seen as many overs, but they've struggled defensively against teams capable of scoring, conceding three against Twente and four against Sparta Rotterdam. More importantly, anytime I get an opportunity to back goals in a Peter Bosz match, I'm interested. I prefer over 3 for the protection, but at +125, there's enough value on over 3.5 to justify taking the bigger number.

I’m taking Jayden Daniels rushing yards over tonight. Daniels has cleared this number in two of his three games this season, including 103 yards on just nine carries last week. What I love about this spot is the expected game script. Washington enters as a 7.5-point underdog against an undefeated San Francisco team, meaning Daniels will likely have to create plays outside the pocket. He’s averaging 9.7 yards per carry this season, and with Jacory Croskey-Merritt ruled out, I expect his legs to remain a big part of Washington’s offense. The 49ers have a tremendous defense, but can over pursue at times. Any break downs are in our favor.