DraftKings. Pascal Siakam has cleared this points line in 38/53 games this season, including 23/30 against teams outside of the top 10 of paint defense. The Lakers rank 20th, and have been torched of late by big forwards. Siakam returned from a short injury break after the All Star Game to play 30 minutes against the Clippers. Probable tonight, I expect him to see 30-32 minutes in a favorable spot against the other LA team. And even though the Pacers are firmly in a tank off, Rick Carlisle has played Siakam his full minutes when healthy - I will trust that (for now). Playable up to over 22.5.
DraftKings at -122. I’m going to attack the centers against the Pelicans angle again tonight. While I had the wrong player last night, Kings centers combined for 26 points and 16 rebounds in 48 minutes. Overall, this is a plus spot for rim-running big men, and Oso Ighodaro finds himself assuming a huge role for the Suns, without Mark Williams available.
FanDuel at -118. Landry Shamet has cleared this line in 21/28 games when playing at least 18 minutes, a mark he has not fell under since late January. He gets a great matchup for his playstyle, against a Nuggets defense that’s 24th in defending spot up opportunities.
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud has cleared this points line in six of the last nine games, which includes a 21-point performance against New Orleans. Over the last three games, Raynaud has played 32+ minutes while leading the league with 11.7 paint touches per game. It’s a small sample, but he’ll now face a Pelicans defense that allows the fifth most assists at the rim and the eighth most paint points. The role is there, as are the touches - I love this spot for the rookie.
FanDuel. Luke Kennard has cleared this points line in 10/11 games he’s played as a Laker, including 7/7 with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and Luka Doncic active. He’ll face a Nuggets defense that forces opposing offenses to spot up opportunities at the fourth highest frequency.
DraftKings. Jaden McDaniels is averaging 15.2 points per game this season. When playing with Anthony Edwards and facing a team in the bottom 12 defensively against spot-up opportunities, McDaniels is over this line in 17/24 games. The Raptors are 25th in that metric, and will undoubtedly laser in on stopping Edwards. McDaniels has been rolling as is lately, clearing this line in 16 of his last 22 games overall.
FanDuel. Nolan Traore has cleared this line in nine of his last 12 games, as he’s playing some of his best basketball of his rookie season. Despite only playing 23 minutes on Tuesday against Miami, he netted 14 points. He’ll face the Heat again in another uptempo matchup. Predicting the Nets rotations isn’t the easiest task right now, but my guess is Traore sees closer to the 30 minutes he’s averaged over the last 12 contests.
FanDuel. Yanic Konan-Niederhauser (who I will respectfully dub YKN), has cleared this line in three of his last four games. As the Clippers will be without John Collins, YKN will assume full backup center duties, and he’s thrived in such situations this season, clearing this line in 8/9 games with 16+ minutes. The Pacers are a prime matchup, allowing the sixth most P+R to centers, and the second most paint points. I’d bet this to over 14.5.
FanDuel. Adem Bona has cleared this points + rebounds line in 11 of the last 17 games he’s played without Joel Embiid. He should find success tonight against a Jazz frontcourt that’s allowed the sixth most P+R to opposing centers over the last thirty games. Utah ranks in the bottom tier of virtually every way Bona accrues his counting stats.
Caesar’s. Chet Holmgren has remained under this line in nine of his last thirteen games, and in 15/25 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Isaiah Hartenstein, both of whom are expected to play after restring for injury maintenance purposes last night. Holmgren gets a tough test against the Knicks tonight - New York protects the paint well (sixth fewest points allowed, which maintains even without Mitch Robinson) and permit the third fewest assists. I don’t see this as a volume spot for Holmgren, who’d have to post elite shooting numbers from long range to clear this. I’d bet this down to under 18.5.
FanDuel. Precious Achiuwa has re-emerged into a significant role in the Kings front court. Sacramento is without Domantas Sabonis, Dylan Cardwell and Kris Murray, leaving Achiuwa and Maxine Raynaud to lead the charge down low. The Kings rotation can’t be fully trusted, but Achiuwa’s rebounding and defense has earned praised from Kings coach Doug Christie, who continues to look fr anything that works for this team. Achiuwa is over this line in four of his last five, and 12/17 overall this season with 25+ minutes. Thriving on the offensive glass, Achiuwa should find success against the Suns who allow the fifth most offensive rebounds.
FanDuel. I’m going to buy low on Dylan Harper’s points plus assists. Coming off an underwhelming 12 P+A effort in a rare Spurs blowout loss, the matchup against the injury depleted Sixers serves as a prime bounce back spot. The rookie has cleared this line in nine of his last eleven games, and will face a Philly defense that’s below average across the board against scoring guards. After a lull in the middle of his rookie year, Harper’s rotation is back up to 20-28 minutes. When playing at least 18 minutes against a bottom 12 at-rim defense (Sixers are 26th), Harper has cleared this line in 13/18 games.
FanDuel. In the last three games he played without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace really stepped up into a primary role. He averaged 16.7 FGA and 13.7 potential assists across the three games, all three in tougher matchups than he’ll face tonight. The Bulls play at the league’s fifth fastest pace, and allow the third most assists. Wallace should cash in on both stats as a spot up shooter and in transition - the Bulls rank 21st against both playtype. I’d bet this to over 20.5.
DraftKings. I have to jump back on Gui Santos’ over here, despite missing by one against the Lakers. He’s cleared this points line in 11 of his last 12 games, and the Warriors are dealing with even more injuries tonight (Will Richard is out, and Gary Payton II is questionable). Santos’ rotation has him at 30+ minutes - even in a slower matchup, I like him to find the volume to hit this. I’d bet this to 13.5 for a partial unit.
Caesar’s. AJ Green has cleared this points line in 16/24 games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the NBA in both catch and shoot defense and three pointers allowed. The Celtics rank 23rd and 25th, respectively, which should allow Green ample opportunity from behind the arc tonight, even if Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up. As an alternative, I’d bet over 2.5 three pointers made.