Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. OG Anunoby has not only emerged on the glass, which I highlighted in Game 5, but he’s consistently provided complementary scoring to Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in spot-up and transition opportunities. This matchup schematically was always a positive for him, having cleared this line in all three regular season matchups - and now with a sky-high minutes ceiling, I have him projected closer to 26.
FanDuel. I’m going to run back an under on Jalen Johnson in Game 6, this time on his points and assists line. Johnson managed to stay under in Game 5 with an 18 and 6 stat line, with a higher than expected 26% usage rate. While the blowout did shave some time off his final rotation, I also expect a much more engaged CJ McCollum tonight (6 points on 10 FGA). Look for the Knicks to continue to limit the Hawks in transition and keep possessions to a minimum. I’d bet this at under 35.5 PRA as well.
FanDuel. With Austin Reaves back for the Lakers, the need for Amen Thompson to remain on the court (for defensive purposes) intensifies even more. Not that his minutes could get much higher, as he’s exceeded 40 in each game this series, but Reaves’ presence also softens the Lakers perimeter defense. Thompson has been incredibly aggressive this series, especially in the absence of Kevin Durant, averaging 13.5 drives over the last two games. Him and Alperen Sengun will serve as the catalysts tonight - I have Amen projected around 27 P+A.
Caesar’s. During his tenure in Cleveland, Donovan Mitchell has cleared this line in 13/15 home playoff games, including each of the last ten. In those games, Spida averages 23.5 shot attempts and 9.5 free throws tries. While each game was against a different opponent in a unique circumstance, the magnitude of this Game 5 can’t be understated, with the Cavs dropping both games in Toronto. James Harden look checked out and Jarrett Allen has turned into his own “lights are too bright” meme. I’m expecting Mitchell to force the issue tonight - and for what it’s worth, he has 35+ P+R in all three home games versus Toronto this season, including Games 1 and 2.
DraftKings. Ausar Thompson is only over this line once in this series. He’s someone who benefits in transition, and the Magic have really buckled down in terms of limiting the Pistons from getting out on the break. In the half-court, Thompson’s drives have been almost cut in half, and the Magic’s drop coverage and paint protection don’t allow for many easy buckets. Other than offensive rebounds, I don’t envision Thompson getting many looks at the rim.
FanDuel. Jrue Holiday has been the most consistent producer for the Blazers this series, with 30+ PRA in each of the last three games, only missing this line in Game 1 due to poor shooting. In fact, he’s cleared this line in 14/16 games this season with 34+ minutes. With the Blazers down to their last hope, Holiday should be in store for another 36+ minutes tonight. Look for the young Blazers to lean on their playoff-tested veteran. I’d bet this to over 27.5.
DraftKings (+111). Despite only averaging 5.2 boards per game this season, OG Anunoby has recorded 8+ rebounds in each game this series, and it’s not a fluke. Quinn Snyder’s offenses are predicated around hunting mismatches - in this case, Jalen Brunson. What the Knicks have done the last two games to combat this is shift their matchups to allow Josh Hart, who was guarding Jalen Johnson, to be able to hedge more on the perimeter to help Brunson. While Hart will still get his rebounds, this has put OG (now guarding Johnson) in even better position on the weakside to rebound. No matter how you shake it, OG is averaging 8.6 boards in 37.6 minutes on 14.1 chances in this matchup this season (7 games).
DraftKings. With Quinn Snyder wanting to target the mismatches, we’re seeing a usage dip for Jalen Johnson by about 3% in the playoffs as CJ McCollum and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have benefitted. Now with OG Anunoby defending Johnson on more than half of his possessions, and the Knicks already stout interior defense, this should continue to be a tough matchup for Johnson to produce. And the Knicks are brutal team to rebound against, especially in the playoffs when possessions are at a premium.
DraftKings. Paul George has remained under this line in each of the four games in this series. In the Sixers lone win, he recorded 7 rebounds + assists on 17 combined potentials. In the three losses, he recorded 5 R+A in each game, with 10-11 potentials per contest. Defensively, he’s been limited in his ability to crash the boards as his primary responsibility has been defending either Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. And now with Joel Embiid back in the fold, PG’s front court touches, touch time, and potential assists all decreased in Game 4. I’m not seeing the upside tonight - if the Sixers are going down, it’ll be with Tyrese Maxey and Embiid dominating the ball.
Caesar’s. With the Thunder defensive gameplan continuing to be to get the ball out of Devin Booker’s hands, Dillon Brooks has benefited as the Suns leading scorer in the series. Brooks has 9+ threes in each game (29 total), with all but one registering as an open look (and 17 as wide open). The Thunder are guarding Brooks with Chet Holmgren, who is more interested in protecting the paint. I don’t think the Thunder mind if Brooks continues to shoot threes, and Brooks will most definitely continue to shoot from long range when open. A 38% shooter from deep at home, in a desparation spot - I have Brooks getting off another 9-10 attempts tonight.
DraftKings. Back on Jalen Duren’s under. At the onset of this series, we identified this as a brutal matchup for Duren, and it’s proved to be just that. Wendell Carter has done a masterful job on the Pistons big man, holding Duren to just 6/14 shooting when matched up (and Duren was just 5/12 in the regular season). It’s not been a matchup the Pistons have targeted, as Duren’s paint+elbow touches have plummeted by more than 50%. It’d be hard for Detroit to scheme for Duren too, since the Magic just have their bigs in drop coverage.
Caesar’s. With Austin Reaves ruled out, Luke Kennard will assume the “Robin” duties on the wing next to LeBron James once again. The veteran sharpshooter has acquitted himself well in a massive role without both Reaves and Luka Doncic, clearing this line in all three games in regulation. With the ability to affect the boxscore in a variety of ways, look for Kennard to deliver in Game 4.
FanDuel. In what could be the swan song for the Houston Rockets who are down 3 to 0 to the Los Angeles Lakers, I’m going to once again back Jabari Smith Jr., but this time on his points prop. The Rockets will once again be without Kevin Durant and Smith should be in line for another 40+ minutes. He’s cleared this line in two of the three games the series, in what’s proven to be a strong schematic matchup for the big man.
DraftKings. Coming off of consecutive 10 rebound performances, VJ Edgecombe has proved vital for the 76ers on the glass. It’s no fluke either, as he came into the playoffs having 6+ rebounds in six straight games, and averaged 5.7 on the season. The Celtics shoot a ton of three pointers (third most per game and third highest rate), which produces longer rebounds. Edgecombe is the Sixers best perimeter rebounder, and he’s not involved in the primary defensive coverage of Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum, giving him the ability to crash. I’m betting this on the news that Joel Embiid was upgraded to questionable as I don’t see it as a big detriment to VJ’s boards (or minutes).