DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.
DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.
DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.
DraftKings. This should be a nice spot for Coby White, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Bulls will be without both Ayo Donsunmu and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt, which should bump White’s usage even more. The Hornets struggle defensively on the perimeter, and White should benefit both as a pick and roll imitator, and on the fastbreak.
DraftKings. Back to the Jaylon Tyson well we go. The sophomore has cleared this line in eleven of fourteen games when playing at least 24 minutes, and 8/9 without Jarrett Allen. With Allen and Sam Merrill remaining out, Tyson should continue to see a strong minutes floor tonight. It’s a soft matchup against the Wizards (for everyone on the Cavaliers), and one that should be played at a breakneck pace, with both teams in the top ten of tempo.
DraftKings. After a slow start to his season, Derrick White has come on strong of late, clearing this line in ten of his last 14 games. Playing second fiddle to Jaylen Brown, I expect White’s counting stats to continue on this upward trajectory over the course of the season - his 23% usage rate is easily the highest of his Celtics tenure. He gets a solid matchup against the Bucks tonight - Milwaukee has struggled to defend perimeter ball-handlers all season. The Bucks have specifically struggled defending the three, which is where White should thrive as a shooter and facilitator. I’d bet this to over 24.5.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper is averaging 17.4 points plus assists this season, clearing this line in 9/12 full games he’s played. His usage since returning from injury has bumped upwards, with at least a 25% over the last six games. With Victor Wembanyama still sidelined, and Stephon Castle shaking off some rust from his own injury, I’m expecting another high usage effort from Harper, in his standard 20-24 minutes (with upside for more). The Lakers have struggled against ball-handling guards of late, and I like this game to have some decent pace to it.
Caesar’s. Royce O’Neale has provided his typical three-and-D presence to the Suns this season. Averaging 16.2 points plus rebounds per game, he’s cleared this line in 18 of 24 games. Devin Booker’s status is up in the air, but regardless of whether he plays, I do like O’Neale tonight. The Thunder’s elite defense takes away the pick and roll and forces the action outside - OKC allows spot up shooting at the fourth highest rate, and that’s O’Neale’s main function in the Suns offense. Any over against the Thunder can be scary, but O’Neale should be needed on the floor tonight.
FanDuel. Even with the uncertainty around Karl-Anthony Towns’ availability, I’m firing on this low OG Anunoby line. OG is averaging 21.2 points plus rebounds over his 30 minutes per game this season. Built up to 28 minutes on Sunday, I’d expect a 30-34 minute workload tonight. It’s a nice matchup against the Raptors who force action to spot up shooters (6th highest frequency, fifth most points allowed). Anunoby has traditionally played well against his former team, and I like that to continue tonight. OK up to over 19.5.
FanDuel. Wendell Carter Jr. has remained under this line in 15/23 games this season. Franz Wagner is now out with an injury, but Carter’s performance this season was largely without Paolo Banchero, who is available tonight. The Heat allow the eighth fewest points plus assists to opposing centers, despite playing at a high pace this season. With this being an NBA Cup game, I do expect the pace to slow down a bit (as we’d typically see in the playoffs). Carter has historically struggled against the Heat, and I don’t expect a usage uptick tonight.
DraftKings. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in eight of 12 games this season. Coming off the worst shooting performance of his young career, I love this as a bounceback spot against the Pelicans non-existent defense. Yes, Stephon Castle is back, but I don’t see that as an impediment to Harper’s minutes off the bench (plus the Spurs are notoriously slow with working their players back from injury).
DraftKings. Rookie Maxime Raynaud has come on strong for the Kings, clearing this line in three of his last four games. Earning his first start on Saturday (in a surprising Kings blowout win), I expect the big man to remain in an expanded role moving forward. It’s a great matchup against the Pacers who have really struggled defending centers this season, allowing the sixth most points. Specifically, Indy ranks 27th against roll men in the pick and roll, and 24th overall in paint points allowed.
DraftKings. Jalen Williams has cleared this line in three of four games this season. The big headline today is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out, along with a few other Thunder rotation players. Without SGA on the floor since the beginning of last season, Williams sees his usage rate shoot up to 34%. Against a team like the Jazz that bleeds spot up shooting (second most assists allowed), I love this spot. I also do like Williams to rebound well, as he typically does in lineups without Isaiah Hartenstein.
FanDuel / MGM. After taking some paternity leave, Luka Doncic returns to the floor tonight. Averaging 35.3 points per game this season, Doncic has cleared this line in all five games that he, Austin Reaves and LeBron James have played together this season. This is an ideal spot for Luka’s points prop too - the Sixers are 27th in pick and roll defense. Likely running on some added emotion/adrenaline, I love Doncic to go off tonight. I’d bet this up to over 32.5 points.
DraftKings. Back to the well to fade Jaren Jackson Jr. again. He’s averaging 19.3 points plus assists this season - and he’s under in 6/9 without Ja Morant. This should be a tougher spot for him against the Blazers, who limit spot up opportunities at the fourth best rate. Plus, the foul prone Jackson could be in trouble tonight against the Blazers who draw the most fouls per game. Likely drawing the Deni Avdija matchup, Jackson Jr. is a prime candidate for foul trouble.