The home team has won all four games in the Panthers-Leafs series...

I actually would have played Brandon Pfaadt at 5.5 for less juice but 4.5 -165 is the best odds available, so I'll lay it here. Pfaadt has gone over this total in five straight and six of eight overall. He has a good matchup tonight against a Giants team that has struck out 353 times - the 8th most in MLB. Pfaadt has pitched at least 6.0 innings in six of eight starts. If he gets through six here, I like our chances.

I'm a little surprised we are getting the Oilers at -120 in Game 3. Edmonton is the hottest team in the NHL Playoffs right now and this feels like it might be a sweep. The Oilers were a minute away from going down 3-1 to the Kings in Round 1. Since that dramatic comeback, Edmonton has won six straight. Vegas losing Game 2 in OT puts them in a tough spot. The Oilers have out-shot the Golden Knights 65-50 in the two games but Vegas is winning the power plays, three goals to zero. If Edmonton can clean that up, I think they go up 3-0 in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

I'm taking the Jets in a must-win game at home where they are 34-8-4 this season. I expect this series to go seven games with the home teams having a lot of success. The first game was pretty even across the board, although the Jets did have seven more shots on goal and 22 more hits. I'll take Winnipeg to even up the series then look to back Dallas in Game 3 at home.

I came into the second round of the NHL Playoffs a little surprised both Toronto and Washington were home underdogs in Game 1. I'm going to jump on Washington +1 (-154) at BetRivers. Carolina is just 17-21-5 on the road this season. While I lean the Canes to win the series, they are a bit overvalued in Game 1. Washington and Carolina split their four regular-season games, with both teams winning their games on home ice. However, Washington goaltender Logan Thompson played just one period vs. the Canes due to injury. Thompson was excellent vs. Montreal with a 2.23 goals against and .923 save percentage. If you can't get Washington +1, consider taking the Caps on the ML for a half unit.

The Padres have won five straight games, while New York dropped two of three to Tampa Bay over the weekend. However, I'm backing the Yanks to end their two-game slide at home. Nick Pivetta has been sensational for SD this season with a 1.78 ERA, although I really like the way Carlos Rodon is pitching right now. Rodon has been light-out in his last three starts, giving up just three runs over 19 innings. The Yankees won those games by a combined score of 21-4.

Kris Bubic has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five of six starts this season. He faced the Orioles back on April 6 and whiffed eight over 6.2 innings. Baltimore struggles vs. lefties, batting just .172 with 94 K's in 309 at-bats. Bubic is averaging just over a strikeout per inning. If that trend continues today, we should be in good shape to cash the bet.

Houston crushed the Warriors in Game 5, 131-116. The one bright spot in the blowout loss was Golden State head coach Steve Kerr took his starters out of the game down 29 with six minutes left in the third quarter. With the game out of hand, Kerr opted to rest his players and try to close out the series at home. I think this will be a tight game but I like Golden State to come out fresh and motivated after the Game 5 debacle. I'll back the Warriors to win the first quarter at home.

I mentioned when I took Winnipeg in Game 5 that I would likely be coming back on Friday with the Blues at home. I thought from the jump this series would go seven games and I haven't changed my mind. The Blues won both games at home by a combined score of 12-3 and now Winnipeg will be without captain Mark Scheifele, who was injured early in Game 5. St. Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington is 10-4-1 over his past 15 starts with a .909 save percentage and 2.26 goals-against average. I think he gets the job done here and the Blues force a Game 7 back in Winnipeg.

I think we are getting a little value here with the total set at 4.5. The number is 5.5 at some books, so I will lay the extra juice. Lugo has at least five strikeouts in three of his last four starts and he typically gets through 6.0 innings. I like his chances of getting over 4.5 K's today vs. the Rays.

The Reds have some pretty significant splits vs. right-handed and left-handed pitching. They are batting just .215 vs. lefties this season and face Matthew Liberatore today, who has allowed just four runs over his last 18.2 innings of work. I think Liberatore limits a Reds' lineup that hits much better on the road (.273) than at home (.218).

I love this spot for Winnipeg. Despite being outscored 12-3 in the last two losses, Winnipeg must feel good about its chances in Game 5. The Jets are 32-7-4 at home this season and forward Gabriel Vilardi is expected to be available for the first time since March 23. I get that no one will confuse Connor Hellebuyck for Patrick Roy in the playoffs, but I expect a big effort from the Jets' goaltender after being pulled in Game 4. I think this series goes seven with the home teams winning every game. I'll back Winnipeg here and probably look to take St. Louis at home in Game 6.

I love that Edmonton won both games at home to even the series heading into Game 5. That creates value on the Kings, who went an NHL-best 33-6-4 at home this season. This series was close to being a sweep but the Kings have blown three late leads, losing two of those games and surviving another. Los Angeles is the deeper team with an edge at goaltender and they have been more productive on power plays in this series. I'll back the Kings to go up 3-2 heading back to Edmonton.

This is similar to my Edmonton play on Friday where I like to back home teams in must-win situations when I think we are looking at a long playoff series. Dallas has won two straight, despite playing without leading goal-scorer Jason Robertson and defenseman Miro Heiskanen. The difference in the series so far has been Colorado's struggles on the power play. The Avalanche have scored just twice in 13 PP opportunities through three games. I expect that to start evening out. This could be a higher-scoring game with Jake Oettinger and Mackenzie Blackwood in net. That favors Colorado. I think the Avalanche tie up the series with a strong performance at home.

Edmonton is hoping a change of scenery brings different results. Los Angeles took the first two games at home by scoring 12 goals. The Kings have won four straight in the series, outscoring the Oilers 20-7. One bright spot for Edmonton is the Kings were much better at home this season than on the road where they went 17-19-5. Where the Oilers are getting killed is in power plays. Edmonton has yet to score with a man advantage, while the Kings have five goals in 10 opportunities. I think that starts to even out. I have a futures bet on LA to win the Stanley Cup but I still believe Edmonton makes this a series. I'll back the Oilers at home in a must-win spot.