I went over 4.5 hits in Shane Bieber's season debut and that cashed easily. Today I'm going over Bieber 2.5 earned runs allowed. The former Cy Young winner struggled with a 6.88 ERA in his rehab starts and that carried over to his outing against the Astros, where he gave up nine hits and four runs in just 3.2 innings. Even more alarming is that Bieber has allowed seven home runs in 21 Minor/MLB innings this season. His velocity is down and I don't think all his issues are going to get fixed after only one start. I'll take over 2.5 earned runs at plus money for a Half Unit.

I'm going to fade Shane Bieber today, who is making his first start of the season after dealing with elbow inflammation. Bieber didn't look good in his rehab starts, allowing 24 hits and 13 runs over 15 innings. Rehab outings don't always mean much because pitchers are working on different things, but it could take Bieber a couple of starts to round into form. I'll put a Half Unit on Bieber giving up at least five hits Tuesday.

I'm surprised we can get Javier Reyes at -155. I expected him to be around -180 for this fight. Reyes is a skilled striker who has made short work of his last two opponents, stopping each in Round 1. Kaan Ofli is 2-2 in his last four fights, although a lot of people (including me) thought he should have lost a decision to Yi Zha his last time out. Look for Reyes to use his seven-inch reach advantage to control the fight with his striking and cruise to a convincing decision win.

I like this matchup for the A's today with Gage Jump on the mound. Jump has allowed just four runs over his last three outings (18.1 innings) with the A's winning all three. Jose Soriano is off his best performance of the season against Tampa Bay but he sported a 5.28 ERA in his previous eight outings. That start was also cut short because of chest tightness and leg soreness. If Soriano gets the call tonight, he could be on a short leash, especially considering the Angels might deal him before the trade deadline. Both teams have bad bullpens, but I like Jump to pitch deeper into the game, whether it's Soriano or someone else. I'll back the A's for a Half Unit.

Diego Lopes is coming off two losses to Alexander Volkanovski in his last three fights but I see Steve Garcia being a better matchup for him. Both fighters are dangerous strikers. The difference is Lopes is a much bigger threat on the ground with 12 career submissions. Lopes has shown to be an easy target at times and that is a concern against a skilled striker like Garcia. However, Lopes has beaten top featherweight competition outside of Volkanovski, and he has more paths to victory. I like Lopes -150 on the ML and +420 to win by submission.

The Nationals have been one of the surprises in MLB this season and took Game 1 over the Giants 4-3 on Monday. I like Washington again on Tuesday with Adrian Houser on the mound for San Francisco tonight. The Nats pounded Houser for seven hits and five runs back in April and he hasn't reached the 5th inning in his last three starts. That should allow Washington to feast on the vulnerable Giants' bullpen. The Nats counter with lefty Andrew Alvarez, who sports a 2.25 ERA in his six career starts. I'd back Washington at anything -110 or better tonight.

The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and while it's obvious he is a huge loss, it could be even bigger on Friday night. Judge has owned Boston starter Sonny Gray, batting .417 against him in his career. Gray has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts and not surprisingly, the Red Sox are 4-1 in those games. With Gray pitching well and Ryan Weathers allowing five runs in two of his last three outings, I'll take the +125 with Boston.

This line has moved towards Gabriel Bonfim over the last 48 hours and it makes sense. Bonfirm is 19-1, a strong finisher, and Belal Muhammad has lost two straight fights. However, I'm still backing the veteran at -110. This fight is at the Apex where the smaller octagon favors Muhammad, who is an elite grappler. Bonfirm's path to victory is to keep his distance and hurt Muhammad with kicks and strikes. The problem is Muhammad is a pro at controlling his opponents in clinches and wearing them down against the cage. Bonfirm has shown a tendency to tire after the first couple of rounds, while Muhammad is known for his stamina. I expect the veteran to grind out a decision win in the main event.

Getting this total at six is a bit of an overreaction to Game 1's 5-4 score. Carolina has allowed more than two goals just twice in 14 playoff games, and both of those came in the first game of a series after a layoff. I also expect Canes' goaltender Frederik Anderson to get back into form after a rare off night where he allowed five goals on 23 shots. I see more of a low-scoring grinder on Thursday between the two top defenses in the playoffs.

I'm backing Vegas to get the sweep tonight. This game is being priced like the Golden Knights haven't dominated the first three games. I think it should be closer to -115. Vegas goalie Carter Hart has been a wall with a .942 save percentage in the series. It's hard to believe but the vaunted Colorado offense have just four goals at full strength in the first three games. The Avalanche also has some key players banged up, including star Nathan MacKinnon, who is dealing with a lower body injury. The Vegas' defense has been elite in the playoffs and I expect that to continue in Game 4. The Golden Knights move on to the Stanley Cup Final.

The Royals saw their 5-game winning streak end on Wednesday but I like Kansas City to bounce back with Seth Lugo on the mound. Lugo has owned this current Cleveland lineup, holding them to a .188 average in 80 career at-bats. He should continue to have success against a Guardians' team that is hitting just .217 versus right-handed pitchers with 211 strikeouts this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland has been a profitable fade with Slade Cecconi on the mound. The Guardians are 1-6 in his seven starts and Cecconi has a road ERA of over 7.00. I'll back KC at home with a big edge in starting pitching.

I'm backing Mitchell Robinson to score at least five points in Game 1. Robinson has gone over 4.5 points eight times in his last 10 games. In four games against Philadelphia this season, Robinson averaged 21.7 minutes and went over this total in three of the meetings. Robinson tends to play more minutes versus the 76ers because the Knicks need his size and physicality defending Joel Embiid. If Robinson plays 18-20 minutes on Monday, I like his chances to score at least five points.

I played the Phillies with this same pitching matchup on Wednesday but the game got rained out. Now Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb will square off in the first game of a double-header. I'll run it back with Philadelphia. Sanchez is coming off his worst outing of the season versus the Cubs where he gave up six runs in 5.1 innings. However, in his five prior starts, Sanchez allowed just five earned runs over 28.1 innings. I expect Sanchez to rebound here and Logan Webb has pitched better at home than on the road. The Phillies go 2-0 under new skipper Don Mattingly.

I like the Under in Game 4 if you can get a six. That's the key number because eight straight meetings between Utah and Vegas have produced six goals or less. Mammoth goaltender Karel Vejmelka has stepped up his game in the postseason with a 2.36 goals against average and .916 save percentage. Meanwhile, Vegas' Carter Hart allowed four goals on just 12 shots in Game 3. However, before that poor outing, Hart went 7-1 with a .932 save percentage. I expect Hart to play better on Monday, so I'll go under six goals for a half unit.

I took the Wild in Game 4 at home and while they delivered with a 3-2 OT win, I knew I was going to back Dallas here. I think the Stars are the better team and expect them to win the series. Dallas is 27-12-4 at home this season and they have done very well in this spot, going 22-7-3 following a loss. This series has 7 games written all over it, but I like the Stars to take the pivotal Game 5 at home.