Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
Thomas's Past Picks
I missed the opener of 7.5 then the line quickly jumped to 9.5. Now it's back down to 7.5 and I think that's a good number to take the Illini. Illinois has lost two of three but it's a bit misleading. Kasparas Jakucionis didn't play against USC then got into early foul trouble at Michigan State where he was on the court for only nine minutes. Maryland isn't the same team away from home. The Terps haven't won a true road game this season and rank 357th in performance away from home on Haslametrics. I haven't had much luck betting home teams this week but it's a good spot to back the Illini at -8 or less.
The Royals have lost just twice since Dec. 7, on the road to Ole Miss and red-hot Florida Gulf Coast. Both teams have issues on defense but Queens has improved in conference play, while North Florida is near the bottom of the ASUN in defensive efficiency. Queens also ranks first in offensive rebounding, first in defensive rebounding and second in free throw percentage in ASUN games. This will be a fast-paced, high-scoring contest and rebounding and foul shots can often be the difference. I'll take Queens at home laying four points.
I like Radford at home on the ML or spread up to -2. The Highlanders are 7-0 at home and have won two straight over Longwood. The Lancers have lost three in a row on the road by an average of 14 points. Radford opened +1.5 and the line moved right away to -1.5. I agree with the line movement as I make the Highlanders -3.
Duquesne is playing well, winning seven of its last eight games. Dayton is 1-3 in its last four with the lone win a two-point overtime victory over Loyola at home. The Dukes attempt the most three-pointers in A-10 play and Dayton ranks last in three-point defense. Duquesne also has a big edge on the offensive boards. I make Dayton -1 here and think there is value backing the red-hot Dukes at +3 or more. Under +3 is no play.
The Suns allow the sixth most points and rebounds to the point guard position. Garland has scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 13 games. He's also gone over his Points+Assists+Rebounds total in seven of his last 10 games. The matchup sets up for Garland to have another big performance on Monday.
Barkley has gone over this total in six of his last eight games. Forecast is calling for 4-5 inches of snow all coming during the game. Barkley carried the ball 26 times in the first meeting against the Rams and I would be surprised if he isn't the focal point of the offense again on Sunday, especially when you factor in the weather.
Like this spot for Maryland coming home after the tough loss to Northwestern. Nebraska hasn't been awful away from home this season but I don't love the matchup here. I think the Cornhuskers will struggle against Maryland's ball pressure defense that ranks 39th in potential quick points off breakaway steals, while Nebraska's offense ranks 224th in that category. I gave this out right away at -7.5. Try to get 8.5 or better. I'd say -9 is the cutoff.
I know David Montgomery is back but I believe Gibbs will get at least 15 carries in a game where the Lions are 9.5-point favorites. Gibbs has 64 carries in the last three games and he's Detroit's most explosive offensive weapon. I don't see the Lions overusing Montgomery with him returning from a knee injury. I think Gibbs clears 14.5 carries.
No one is more down on John Calipari than me but this feels like a good buy low spot on the Hogs. They match up pretty well with Missouri, all things considered. One of Arkansas' biggest weaknesses is offensive rebounding but Missouri can't really take advantage. The Tigers rank 269th in defensive rebounding percentage. Missouri also lives at the free throw line and Arkansas fouls at a below-average rate. Might regret it but I I make Missouri -4 at home, so there is some value taking the Hogs at +6 or more.
The Tigers will be playing their second game without star Johni Broome after easily defeating Mississippi State. However, Georgia is built to give Auburn problems without Broome in the lineup. The Bulldogs are one of the biggest teams in the country and Georgia uses that size well. UGA is an elite offensive rebounding team and turns extra opportunities into baskets, ranking No. 2 in second-chance conversion percentage. Auburn’s defense ranks 190th in that category and that was with Brome’s 10.7 rebounds in the lineup. The Tigers are 2-1 in true road games. Auburn lost to Duke, beat Texas by five and South Carolina by three. It’s not easy to blow teams out on the road in the SEC. Take UGA +7 or more.
No CBB picks tonight, so how about one in the NBA? The Thunder and Cavs meet for the second time in a week with Cleveland winning at home on Jan. 8, 129-122. I like OKC to even things up in the rematch. No Isaiah Hartenstein tonight for the Thunder but OKC has a +11.7 point differential when both Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren aren't in the lineup. The Thunder have won 18 of 19 with the only loss coming against the Cavs. They have also been a covering machine over that time, going 16-2-1 ATS. OKC hasn't lost at home since Nov. 17. I don't see that streak ending on Thursday. I took the ML but also like OKC on the spread at -2 or less.
Maybe I'm too down on Florida State but I make Pitt -4 on the road. The Panthers four losses have all come against KenPom Top 30 teams. Pitt also has good wins over Ohio State and West Virginia and they beat up on inferior opponents. Florida State's best win this season came over Syracuse. If you have watched Syracuse play, you know that's not a good thing. I expect a competitive game here but Pitt's defense and ability to get to the free throw line against an FSU team that fouls a lot is the difference. Try to get the Panthers at -3 or less.
I’m going to sell high on Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are just 1-3 away from home this season and have lost both of their true road games to Michigan and Wisconsin. One of my betting strategies is to fade teams on the road in conference play that rank 90th or higher in defensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes rank 96th and allow an average 91.5 points away from Carver Hawkeye Arena. USC is starting to play better in Eric Musselman’s first season, winning five of their last seven games. The Trojans lost at home to Michigan 85-74 in a game that was closer than the final score suggests. I like USC at anything under -3.