Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
Thomas's Past Picks
Half Unit Play. I'm going to take a shot here with UC Davis getting 9.5 points. I have these teams rated closer than the large spread indicates. Both teams have played well the two times they stepped up in class. Hawaii has close losses to Arizona State and Oregon, while UC Davis upset Nevada and played tough at Colorado. I think the Rainbow Warriors' metrics are a bit overrated right now thanks to a soft schedule. Another factor could be turnovers. Hawaii's biggest weakness is turnovers and UC Davis pressures the ball at an above average rate. Ten of the last 13 games between these two have been decided by eight points or less. I'll take the 9.5 for a half unit. Play to 8.5.
Half Unit Play. I like this spot for Notre Dame. Missouri has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far with seven home games and a lone road game at Howard. The Tigers have faced just one team ranked in KenPom’s Top 230 and that was 4-4 Minnesota. I like the Irish this season and I thought they played pretty well in losses to Ohio State, Houston and Kansas away from home. I think this is a good matchup for Notre Dame facing a Missouri squad playing its first tough opponent of the season on the road. I'm making ND +1.5 a half unit play. If the line moves to 2.5 I'll add another half unit.
George Mason is the best mid-major team I’ve seen and I love this matchup. Head coach Tony Skinn has done a great job luring power conference talent to George Mason. The Patriots have a massive edge defensively in this game. Cornell has scored at least 86 points in six of seven games. However, that was against bad competition. What stands out to me is the one game where they faced a competent defense versus Illinois State. The Redbirds held Cornell to 65 points and 19.4% from three-point range. The Big Red live and die by the three-pointer and will face a Patriots’ defense holding opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc. I’ll back George Mason to roll at home. Bet up to -12.5.
One thing I like to do after a few games is fade bad defenses on the road. Kansas State is rolling offensively but the Wildcats have allowed an average of 85.5 points in their last four games. That concerns me with Kansas State playing its first true toad game at Indiana. The Hoosiers haven't played anyone yet but I like the roster Darian DeVries has assembled. Indiana should be able to score at will near the basket and I give them a big defensive edge in this matchup. I'll lay the 8.5. Bet up to 9.5.
Jumping on this play for Monday early. I actually make Alabama the small favorite here. I'll take the 4.5 in a run and gun game that the Tide love to play. Bama has already beat St. John's and Illinois and were tied with Purdue late. Give me the 4.5 points at DK on the opener. Bet to +3.5.
I’m going to buy low on Southern Illinois here. The Salukis have lost two straight but they were on the road to North Dakota State by seven and Nevada in overtime. I think those losses are leading to value with this number. I have Delaware rated low this season. The Hens have already lost to Bucknell and D-II Wilmington University. Maybe my numbers are off early but I have Southern Illinois rated as a mid-tier MVC team and Delaware near the bottom of the CAA. I’ll lay the 6.5 on a neutral court. Bet to -7.5.
This matchup just screams points. The last 10 meetings between USC and Oregon have produced at least 54 points with eight going over 60. I think we will see another high-scoring game on Saturday. The issue USC faces is it struggles to stop the run. The Trojans are allowing close to 170 rushing yards in their last three games. When the Ducks are able to run the football, it sets up everything else they do offensively and lets quarterback Dante Moore make big plays down the field. If Oregon gets the running game going early on Saturday, USC’s defense is in for a long day. I expect Oregon’s offense to have one of its best performances of the season.
I'm going against the line movement here. I understand why Montana State got hit at -1.5 but now that the line is over a field goal, I think there is value on the Grizzlies. The Bobcats have the edge on defense but no one has really slowed down Montana's offense all season. The Griz have won the last two meetings at home and I think this game goes down the wire. I'll take the 3.5.
I was high on Old Dominion this season and bet them to win the Sun Belt. This is a very good team led by dual threat quarterback Colton Joseph. However, the Monarchs have a tricky game on Saturday at Georgia Southern. The Eagles have won three of their last four and need one more victory to become bowl eligible. This feels like too many points in what should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth kind of game. Clay Helton is 17-6 straight up at home as Georgia Southern's head coach. I think the Eagles can stay within the big number.
Half unit play. I think the line is off in this game. It opened Coastal Carolina -1.5 but I made the Chanticleers -5. Coastal isn't a great Sun Belt team, although I have them rated a lot higher than Western Illinois. Coastal defeated a good Winthrop team and played well at Jacksonville State. I think there is value with the Chanticleers in this road spot as short favorites. I took the ML -128 for a half unit at BetMGM and would play the spread up to -3.
I’m going to buy low on Texas A&M after two straight losses to Oklahoma State and UCF. I’m not surprised the Aggies are having some growing pains early. New coach Bucky McMillan brought in 10 new players and his frenetic “Bucky Ball” style of play from Samford. The key to that style is constant ball pressure that creates easy baskets off turnovers. This is a much better matchup for Texas A&M. Montana also wants to play fast but they should have issues here against an Aggies team that is deeper and more athletic. I expect Texas A&M to create a lot of turnovers with its pressure defense and wear down a Montana squad that ranks 331st in bench minutes. Lay up to -17.
This is a buy low spot on the Vikings at home. The Bears keep finding a way to win games and I don't want to gloss over that. although I feel their luck in close games has to run out soon. Ironically, the one close game they lost came in Week 1 to Minnesota. Look for J.J. McCarthy to get going and have one of his better days against a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 296 passing yards in their last three games. Lay up to -3.
The Bills played about as poorly as they could last week in Miami. Now they return home to face a Bucs team that just isn't the same on offense without some of their top weapons. I expect a much better effort out of Buffalo's offense and I don't think a banged up Baker Mayfield will be able to keep up. Bet up to -6.5.