Thomas's Picks (1 Live)
I'm taking the low-hanging fruit here. It's not just that Duke is coming off a loss to UNC, it's how they lost. The Blue Devils controlled most of that game before going ice cold in the final seven minutes. Duke gets the perfect opponent to take out its frustrations. Pitt is coming off losses of 20 (Virginia) and 19 (SMU). This is also a bad matchup for the Panthers. Duke should score at will near the basket versus a Pitt defense that ranks last in the ACC in two-point percentage and create a lot of turnovers that lead to easy buckets. I never lay this many points on the road in conference play but this feels like a Duke blowout win. Play up to -16.5.
I think 8.5 is too many points here given how well Saint Joseph's is playing right now. The Hawks are 7-1 in their last eight games with the lone defeat a respectable seven-point loss at VCU. I like this George Mason team overall, although the Patriots are just 3-2 in their last five games with the wins coming by five, eight and four points. Saint Joseph's also matches up well with George Mason. The Hawks defend the paint well and foul at the lowest rate in the Atlantic 10. These two teams are even on paper and separated by one game in the A-10 standings. This feels like a game that goes down to the wire. Bet down to +7.5.
Alabama just got blown out at Florida, but I think it’s a good time to buy low on the Crimson Tide. Alabama struggles against Florida and Tennessee because those two teams kill them on the boards. The Tide are 0-10 in their last 10 games against those two teams. That won’t be a problem on Wednesday because Texas A&M lacks size and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC. The Aggies can’t exploit Alabama’s biggest weakness. The Tide have also played a much harder SEC schedule up to this point. Texas A&M’s toughest stretch is coming up with games against Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas in February. I'll back Bama in a bounce back spot at home. Bet up to -6.5.
This opening line at DK seems off to me. SFA and McNeese are the two top teams in the Southland Conference and extremely close on paper. That showed in the first meeting when McNeese won by two at home, 66-64. I expect another tight game here that comes down to the wire. I make this line a pick and think it moves towards SFA. Try to get +3 or better.
This line feels high, especially with Braden Huff out and Graham Ike not 100%. Gonzaga dismantles most opponents in the WCC but Saint Mary’s is a different story. The Gaels are 4-2 in their last six games against Gonzaga and have covered this number five times over that span. Sometimes past results don’t matter but I look at trends more when the coaches don’t change. Randy Bennett and Mark Few know each other well, so recent results hold more weight. Saint. Mary’s is the top free throw shooting team in the WCC at 81.4 percent, while Gonzaga ranks last at 64.6 percent. That big edge for the Gaels could come into play if the game is competitive late. I'd bet Saint Mary's down to 8.5.
I'm going to jump on this one early because DK is posting 1.5, while other books are at 3.5. I think 3.5 is the right number. This is one of the few times I'm betting on "gut." Having watched UCLA recently, I feel like they are starting to turn the corner. They are 5-1 in their last six games and while home court doesn't always matter in the Big Ten, the Bruins are a perfect 12-0 at Pauley Pavilion. This is also a great spot for UCLA with Indiana traveling after the huge win at home over Purdue. I typically play the ML instead of 1.5 but DK isn't offering it and I think the line goes up. Bet up to 2.5.
I like to back Houston after a rare poor defensive performance. The Cougars allowed Texas Tech to put up 90 points and shoot 41 percent from three-point range. Kelvin Sampson prides himself on having strong defensive teams, so you can bet practices weren’t fun for the Houston players the last few days. Texas Tech actually matches up well with the Cougars. TCU does not. Houston should eat the Horned Frogs alive on the offensive glass, while its ball pressure defense causes havoc against a TCU squad that can be sloppy with the basketball. The Cougars are 6-2 away from home this season and I expect them to bounce back with an emphatic win on Tuesday. I took -5.5 (DK). Bet up to 7.5.
Alabama and Missouri are the two teams I have bet the most the past couple of seasons, so I feel obligated to make a pick on the game. The Tide will be pretty healthy on Tuesday with the expected return of guard Aden Holloway. Holloway wasn't listed on the injury report and is averaging 17.7 points per game. Center Charles Bediako will also be eligible for at least one more game, giving Nate Oats close to a complete roster for one of the few times this season. The other reason I like Alabama is Missouri struggles to guard the three-point line, which is a bad omen when facing the Tide. I bet Alabama -10.5. Play up to 11.5.
Texas is just 2-4 in its last six games but the eye test tells me they are playing better overall. Three of those losses came by five points or less. The Horns also have wins over Alabama and Vanderbilt in that span. I bet against Georgia on Tuesday and they hit a shot late against Missouri to beat us. However, I thought Missouri blew that game in the second half. Texas is one of the top free throw shooting teams in CBB and I expect them to kill Georgia on the offensive glass. That should be enough to get the win at home. I played the Texas ML -120 (Bet365). Take the ML or Longhorns on the spread up to -2.5.
Both teams are playing on back-to-back days because of the winter storm this weekend. Lipscomb just got past Stetson at home on Thursday, while FGCU got drilled at Austin Peay without JR Konieczny. Konieczny is the Eagles' leading scorer (15.7) and rebounder (6.3), so he's the one player FGCU can't afford to lose. These two teams met on Jan. 10 with Lipscomb winning by seven on the road, despite Konieczny scoring 26 and grabbing 10 rebounders. Lipscomb is the deeper team and I think they are in better shape to play two games in 24 hours, especially if Konieczny is out again. I laid -5.5 at FanDuel. Bet up to 6.5.
I subscribe to the motto “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” I’m 4-0 betting Missouri games and the Tigers are a perfect 11-0 at home this season. Missouri returns home after a loss at LSU and I think it’s another good spot to back the Tigers. Georgia has struggled to shoot the ball in SEC play and now faces a Missouri defense that ranks No. 1 in two-point field goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Tigers dominate near the rim with Mark Mitchell, one of the best dribble drive guards in CBB. Foul shooting is always a concern with Missouri but I like their defense to get enough stops in the second half. I took Missouri ML -115 (Bet365). Bet ML or spread up to -2.5.
I like Yale in this spot at home. The Bulldogs don't play fast but they do a great job of getting easy baskets in transition. That's why Yale has so much success against teams like Cornell and Columbia that play fast but allow a lot of easy opportunities on the defensive end. Yale has scored at least 84 points against the Lions in each of the last five meetings and have won the last three at home by an average of 25 points. I like that trend to continue on Monday. Bet up to 9.5.
North Carolina has lost two of three and allowed 90+ points both times. However, I think this is a good spot to take the Tar Heels against a Cal team that has struggled when stepping up in class, losing to Louisville, Duke and Virginia all by 15+ points. While UNC has issues defensively, I don’t think Cal can exploit it. The Bears rank last in the ACC in offensive rebounding and three-point shooting. UNC lost to an underrated Stanford squad but travel won’t be an issue because they stayed out West. Cal is a much better free throw shooting team, although UNC doesn’t foul much and I expect the Tar Heels to dominate in the paint. I bet UNC -3.5 (FD). Bet up to 4.5.
I'm taking a shot with Missouri as a small home dog. I went against the Tigers on Saturday in Ole Miss coming off two emotional wins over Florida and Kentucky. They played pretty well overall though. The difference was Missouri shooting 50% from the free throw line, which is always an issue with one of the worst foul shooting teams in the country. I came into the year thinking Auburn might be a good road fade in SEC play. It's still early but the Tigers are 0-2 in true road games. Another factor is Auburn isn't a deep team, ranking 334th in bench minutes. That's always a concern against Missouri's aggressive style that can wear opponents down. I took +1.5. Bet Missouri up to -2.