Thomas's Picks (2 Live)
Thomas's Past Picks
Half Unit Play. I like this spot for Notre Dame. Missouri has played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far with seven home games and a lone road game at Howard. The Tigers have faced just one team ranked in KenPom’s Top 230 and that was 4-4 Minnesota. I like the Irish this season and I thought they played pretty well in losses to Ohio State, Houston and Kansas away from home. I think this is a good matchup for Notre Dame facing a Missouri squad playing its first tough opponent of the season on the road. I'm making ND +1.5 a half unit play. If the line moves to 2.5 I'll add another half unit.
George Mason is the best mid-major team I’ve seen and I love this matchup. Head coach Tony Skinn has done a great job luring power conference talent to George Mason. The Patriots have a massive edge defensively in this game. Cornell has scored at least 86 points in six of seven games. However, that was against bad competition. What stands out to me is the one game where they faced a competent defense versus Illinois State. The Redbirds held Cornell to 65 points and 19.4% from three-point range. The Big Red live and die by the three-pointer and will face a Patriots’ defense holding opponents to only 27% from beyond the arc. I’ll back George Mason to roll at home. Bet up to -12.5.
One thing I like to do after a few games is fade bad defenses on the road. Kansas State is rolling offensively but the Wildcats have allowed an average of 85.5 points in their last four games. That concerns me with Kansas State playing its first true toad game at Indiana. The Hoosiers haven't played anyone yet but I like the roster Darian DeVries has assembled. Indiana should be able to score at will near the basket and I give them a big defensive edge in this matchup. I'll lay the 8.5. Bet up to 9.5.
Jumping on this play for Monday early. I actually make Alabama the small favorite here. I'll take the 4.5 in a run and gun game that the Tide love to play. Bama has already beat St. John's and Illinois and were tied with Purdue late. Give me the 4.5 points at DK on the opener. Bet to +3.5.
I’m going to buy low on Southern Illinois here. The Salukis have lost two straight but they were on the road to North Dakota State by seven and Nevada in overtime. I think those losses are leading to value with this number. I have Delaware rated low this season. The Hens have already lost to Bucknell and D-II Wilmington University. Maybe my numbers are off early but I have Southern Illinois rated as a mid-tier MVC team and Delaware near the bottom of the CAA. I’ll lay the 6.5 on a neutral court. Bet to -7.5.
Half unit play. I think the line is off in this game. It opened Coastal Carolina -1.5 but I made the Chanticleers -5. Coastal isn't a great Sun Belt team, although I have them rated a lot higher than Western Illinois. Coastal defeated a good Winthrop team and played well at Jacksonville State. I think there is value with the Chanticleers in this road spot as short favorites. I took the ML -128 for a half unit at BetMGM and would play the spread up to -3.
I’m going to buy low on Texas A&M after two straight losses to Oklahoma State and UCF. I’m not surprised the Aggies are having some growing pains early. New coach Bucky McMillan brought in 10 new players and his frenetic “Bucky Ball” style of play from Samford. The key to that style is constant ball pressure that creates easy baskets off turnovers. This is a much better matchup for Texas A&M. Montana also wants to play fast but they should have issues here against an Aggies team that is deeper and more athletic. I expect Texas A&M to create a lot of turnovers with its pressure defense and wear down a Montana squad that ranks 331st in bench minutes. Lay up to -17.
I'm going to take a shot with Omaha laying 8.5 at home. The Mavericks lost their two top scorers from last season but do return three starters and five key reserves from the team that went to the NCAA Tournament. Omaha is 0-3 but all those games were away from home versus quality opponents. Two of the losses were by a combined 10 points. I like this spot for the Mavericks playing their first home game where they have won 10 straight against a Southern Utah squad I have rated very low. Play up to -10.
It’s still early to use metrics but this game could get ugly in the turnover department. UMass lives off of pressuring the ball and creating turnovers. Meanwhile, Le Moyne had 24 turnovers against Bowling Green and 18 versus Xavier. The other issue for Le Moyne is they really only play six guys. I expect UMass’ pressure defense to wear them down and get a lot of easy buckets off steals. This line might move against us but I’m good with 11.5. I make the line -16. Bet UMass up to -15.
This bet is more of a fade against Minnesota. Niko Medved was an excellent long-term hire for the Gophers but he is probably still another recruiting class away from having a roster that can compete in the Big Ten. Medved put together a team of nine transfers from mostly mid-major schools and this will be their first test of the season. I thought Missouri was the toughest place to play in the country last year and the Tigers’ frenetic style is tough to prepare for if you aren’t used to seeing it. I think Missouri rolls at home. Bet up to -8.
This line opened 18.5 then fell to 15.5. It may dip further but that number is in my wheelhouse, so I'm going to grab it. New Florida State head coach Luke Loucks said he wants the Noles to play at the fastest pace in CBB. So far, so good. FSU topped 100 points in wins over Alcorn State and Alabama State playing at a frenetic pace. However, teams that play fast against Florida typically don’t live to tell about it. Granted, the Gators lost to Arizona playing that style but the Wildcats have an elite roster. This is a tough spot for a new coach with an entirely new roster going on the road for the first time. Bet up to -17.5.
Damon Stoudamire spent all offseason preaching to his team they need show up every night regardless of opponent. The Yellow Jackets then opened the season by defeating lowly Maryland Eastern Shore…by four points in OT. Maybe it took that scare for Stoudamire’s message to get through because Georgia Tech hammered Bryant by 29 in its next game. I like this Yellow Jackets roster, so I’m going to chalk up the struggles vs. Eastern Shore as a first game anomaly. SE Louisiana is playing its third road game in seven days. The Yellow Jackets should dominate in the paint with their size advantage. Maybe Georgia Tech can’t be trusted as a big favorite but I see value with this early number. Bet up to -17.
I love me a good rebound spot and this certainly qualifies after Boise State suffered one of the biggest upsets in CBB history against a school that operates out of a strip mall. Sounds like one of the seven colleges I attended. Hey, I figured out a way to get a four-year degree without ever taking a math, science or foreign language class. Utah Valley is a perfect opponent for Boise to get right at home. The Wolverines have a completely new roster that lacks scoring punch on paper. Boise coach Leon Rice prides himself on defense. I expect a much better effort from the Broncos after Hawaii Pacific scored 79 points and shot 60% in the opener. Lay up to -14 with Boise.