Pittsburgh's 26% strikeout rate and lowly .607 OPS make them one of the worst teams in MLB vs. lefties. With a dipping swinging strike rate, David Peterson has recorded a 6th strikeout in just 3/7 starts, but one miss was at five, and a matchup like this could help provide some positive regression. He's better against lefties and gets unlucky facing a lineup full of righties tonight, but there should be some less experienced bats in this Pirates order thanks to injuries/matchup, so that could be an equalizer. Peterson's only pitch that ranks above average on Stuff+ is the slider (106), and it's relied upon most for his punch outs. It's a pitch this lineup has struck out on and hasn't found much success against.

Ranger Suarez didn't have too many great things to take from his first start this year but he did punch out six batters in just 3.2 innings of work, throwing 82 pitches. He was also able to grab strikeouts in his few rehab starts, so the strikeout feel seems to be good for him already. I'm backing Suarez to get a 5th strikeout against a Guardians team that strikes out nearly 25% of the time against lefties, allowing four straight southpaws to go over this line (Carlos Rodon, Cole Ragans, Tyler Anderson and Kris Bubic). They also have not seen a lefty starter since April 23rd so it's a small sample size but this lineup has struck out far more than last year already.

AJ Smith-Shawver was incredible last time out, going eight innings and striking out five Reds without allowing a run. He brought a no-hitter into the 8th inning and has shown a lot of promise so far. Smith-Shawver has yet to finish with less than five strikeouts in a start at MLB or AAA level this season, aside from this first of the year when he threw 77 pitches and struck out four Padres in four innings. The Pirates are a rather average strikeout matchup for right handers but at this price, I'll take a shot on the 5th strikeout. Smith-Shawver throws the splitter as his best out-pitch, and he'll need a good one here again today.

The A's have only seen Justin Steele (6 Ks), David Peterson (5 Ks), Patrick Corbin (5 & 4 Ks) and lefty openers, so I'm not sold on their lack of strikeouts vs. southpaws yet. Carlos Rodon has at least six strikeouts in 6/8 starts, missing with five twice. He recorded 45 strikeouts in 36.2 innings during April, and possesses a whiff rate near 44% on the slider now. With 32 strikeouts on the slider already, Rodon should lean into it and get up the strikeout ladder vs. a team that hasn't found success against that pitch. Seven K's (+126) 0.5u, eight K's (+255) 0.35u and nine Ks (+500) 0.15u. If you don't play strikeout ladders, take 0.5u on over 5.5 Ks at -147 at Caesars.

Hunter Brown has shown to be the ace of the Houston staff so far this year, pitching to an ERA under two and a 5-1 record. Tonight against the Reds, I'm backing him on the strikeout ladder in my article for 1u, located in the analysis tab on the SL website! If you don't play ladders, I would take a 0.5u unit position on the over 6.5. My take is I want to tap into the strikeout upside so I played the full ladder for 1u.

Despite the strikeout numbers and swinging strike rate being down for this kid, the Stuff+ metrics love his pitch arsenal and facing one of the best matchups for strikeouts here, I'll take a 0.5u shot on the +115 price for a 5th strikeout. Jobe has struck out at least four batters in three of his last four starts and while Coors Field can present challenges, he doesn't need to do a ton right in this one to hit a 5th strikeout again. He's thrown at least 77 pitches in each start, and has got closer to 90 at times, which is plenty of work to get a 5th punch out.

Cristopher Sanchez came back from arm soreness to throw 87 pitches and strike out six Nationals last time out. All indications are he is healthy and will continue to pitch without limitations, plus his velocity was up and he was grabbing whiffs in that last start. The change of speeds with his elite changeup could prove devastating against some of these unseasoned MLB hitters on Tampa Bay, and I'd rather bet on the punch outs vs. a Rays team that's struck out far more of late than his over 17.5 Outs 2nd time back off an injury scare. I have interest in alternate K levels too, as his swinging strike rate is 14.5% and Stuff+ at 115, both very much in stud territory.

Only putting a half unit here, maybe I am being tepid for no reason, but Senga has ended with four strikeouts in three of his six starts. There does show value on this price at 4.5 K's so I'll back the over, but I do have some reservations about how poorly his pitches grade out on the Stuff+ scale. His swinging strike rate is solid at 12.6% and in line with previous years, so we know the swing and miss is there and likely more strikeouts will come, he just hasn't run it up much yet. Senga struck out six DBacks in just four innings last time out and matched his career high 12 punch outs in his only career start in the desert (2023).

Gunnar Hoglund doesn't have overly impressive numbers but he did generate 11 whiffs for a 31% rate in his debut. Admittedly, this line and price are showing value and the play is not about how "great" Hoglund is (or this matchup) but rather about value. Hoglund struck out seven Marlins in his debut but faces a Mariners lineup that has avoided strikeouts at a much better rate than last year. He generally throws around 80 pitches and I would anticipate similar work here, meaning we can be far worse than a strikeout per inning and still get over the number. Worth a half unit at least in my opinion.

Zack Wheeler hasn't had too many stiff strikeout matchups this season, going over this line in 6/7 starts, and he's yet to exit a start before the 6th inning, adding opportunities for punch outs. The Rays have also seen their strikeout rate jump lately, ranking second worst in MLB with a 25% K rate against right handers since mid-April. Wheeler features a 14.6% swinging strike rate, zone contact rate below 80% and Stuff+ over 111 on four of his pitches; he's a stud. Should be a hot one in Tampa and he's worked 100+ pitches the last couple outings so I'm going to keep it a half unit here but like the matchup regardless.

AJ Smith-Shawver went over this number in his last start and he was on his way to going up the strikeout ladder before being pulled thanks to taking a line drive off the arm. He's back now in good health and the splitter for his strikeout pitch looked great last time out. The Reds make for a better than average matchup.

Garrett Crochet has only stayed under this line twice since the start of April, both times against a Toronto lineup that ranks near MLB best at avoiding strikeouts, with a rate under 20%. Still, Crochet finished just under this line in those starts and against one of the higher strikeout lineups when facing southpaws, Crochet is firmly in position to succeed with strikeouts today. I think there is even some room for positive regression with his swinging strike rate (12.6% vs. 16% in 2024), considering he is at 112 Stuff+ with nearly all of his pitches ranking as well above average. He will need to work quickly to avoid the rain but it looks like it holds off just long enough.

This is an O's lineup that Kris Bubic already found success against this year, with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings. He's thrown 91+ pitches in each start and pitched into the 6th inning in all but one. The swinging strike rate looks solid at 14% and he's kept the zone contact rate down as well. Baltimore has a league worst OPS against lefties (.492) and one of the highest strikeout rates (27%). Only three southpaws have been held below this line, two ending with four strikeouts (low-K guys Mitchell Parker and Sean Newcomb) and one being an opener. Everyone else has torn them up, and we only need a 5th here, great price!

Osvaldo Bido has not gone deep into games but he's now pitched into the 6th inning in three straight. Once Bido hit his stride as a starter late last year, he finished with six full innings in 5/6 starts in August/Sept, so I think we have room for him to continue the recent success. The Marlins have allowed many opposing starters over this line, with 12/16 starters over the last two weeks exceeding the 15.5 mark. Only Trevor Williams, Taijuan Walker, Logan Gilbert (injury), Logan Evans (MLB debut), and Jack Dreyer (Opener) have stayed below this line. I think the price is off and should be into the -150's or the line at 16.5.

Senzatela projecting for close to 7 hits allowed here. He's allowed at least eight hits in 5/6 starts and gave up six in the other start, making him over this line in each outing this year. Great price, despite the Giants offense being near the bottom of the league for OPS vs righties of late. Senzatela is generally very hittable, I think the wrong side is favored here at least, if not this should be at 6.5....