Jacob Misiorowski is coming off a short outing where it was thought to be Milwaukee limiting his innings, but manager Pat Murphy said after the game that Miz was "out of sorts with his delivery, his velocity fell and he leaned on his breaking stuff." That makes it seem like an isolated decision, and I would not be surprised to see him be dominant again and have a big game for strikeouts. This is about as severe of a starting pitcher mismatch as you will see if Miz is healthy, and the Brewers offense should be able to score against Kyle Freeland, who's allowed 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts. Milwaukee has a significant bullpen edge to hold down the win too.
Cy Young hopeful Cristopher Sanchez pitches on Sunday night as the Phillies try to avoid being swept at home by the Yankees. Will Warren goes for the Bronx Bombers and while he hasn't been great (4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), he's been serviceable many times in his 19 starts. Besides the pitching mismatch and the Phillies looking to salvage a game, Cody Bellinger pulled his hammy last night and is not only out for Sunday but likely at least a couple of weeks with an IL stint looming. With the Yankees already winning two in this series, and using a bunch of bullpen the last couple days to do it, they would be shorthanded even before losing Bellinger.
I think the price here on the Rays is a bit light for two teams kind of going in different directions. Just because Jose Ramirez is back now doesn't make the Rays offense any easier to navigate, and I don't trust Tanner Bibee to successfully get through the first half of this game without giving up multiple runs. He allowed seven baserunners in five innings earlier this year when they faced off but escaped with just one run allowed. I don't see him being that lucky today. Bibee has struggled vs. lefties, with a .359 wOBA and ISO over .250 of late, allowing 20 homers with 14 coming against lefties and the Rays project to have seven lefties in the lineup today.
MGM has this line at +155 and I love that price for Dylan Cease to not complete a full six innings here today. The Red Sox have been hot, it's no secret, and this is the third time they will see Cease this year. The first two times he threw 100+ pitches yet failed to complete six innings in either start. The Blue Jays need a win badly, and if Cease is beginning to struggle I don't see them pushing him too far. If he's good, I'll take my loss but at this price on MGM it's a must play.
The projected lineup is missing Max Muncy and Dalton Rushing, giving southpaw Sean Manaea just three lefties to face, which is the side he's been far better against for Ks. Freddie Freeman also doesn't strike out a lot, so it will likely be on Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani to rack up strikeouts if Manaea is to get to six. Against righties, the Mets starter has just an 8% swinging strike rate and an 18% K rate, while those numbers are nearly doubled against lefties. There is only one right-handed batter above a 17% strikeout rate (Teoscar Hernandez) and I have Manaea projecting just under five strikeouts with the new projected lineup so I like the under in what could be a shorter start.
Zebby Matthews and Jacob Lopez face off in Minnesota tonight and I'm betting against Matthews with the A's team total over 4.5 runs around even money. I have 1u on that but I do also like the full game over, with the lefty Lopez going up against the Twins, followed by MLB's worst bullpen. The Twins are also a bottom-five bullpen and Matthews has gotten into some trouble of late with 4+ earned runs allowed in all three July starts. He's also allowed seven homers in his last five starts and lefties are touting a .281 average and 1.50 WHIP against the Twins righty.
Logan Webb would have completed seven innings last time if not for a tough final few batters and a crushing three run homer to tie the game. He got through six innings with just 88 pitches before things unraveled with two outs in the 7th, so I like him to continue the trend tonight of doing well at home and pitching deeper into games for a Giants pitching staff that needs length from him each time. Webb likely faces a righty heavy order too, and they are hitting just .204 against him, making this the better side of his split. Fanduel and MGM have far better prices here so I would play it there.
Starting the ladder on Jesus Luzardo for 8,9,10 Ks against the Yankees on Friday night. The Bronx Bombers are likely to use a righty heavy order against him, but I'm not sure it matters being they still have to kind of force feed at least a few lefties in there. Regardless, Luzardo has been good against both side of the plate and is running a 15% swinging strike rate and 114 Stuff+ metric over the last month. The Yankees on the other hand own the league's highest strikeout rate and 3rd-lowest OPS against southpaw pitchers in that same time. They're struggling and when Luzardo is on, his stuff is elite for strikeouts, and he projects for at least six innings here.
Cleveland's offense has been league worst against southpaws since the start of June and pretty bad all year, but they did walk seven times today despite just three hits. They see a ton of pitches and even if they don't make the opposing pitcher pay for mistakes many times, the Guardians do at least make them work and get the benefit of Jose Ramirez being healthy again. Shane McClanahan completed 6+ innings in three starts prior to the All-Star break, but just five innings last time, while allowing 5 ER, 3 walks and a hit batter. He returns here on normal rest for the first time after the break, so take under 16.5 outs. I would hold off on 15.5 unless you're getting plus money.
The Dodgers offense is in a great spot here against Aaron Nola, after scoring just two runs last night which was enough to win. I played Dodgers team total over 4.5 runs for one unit and if they can score at least five runs, I like them to win too. Nola possesses a .350 xwOBA against lefties and Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, and Tucker are all in the order tonight. I was worried about a watered down lineup but with the normal starters in, I'm taking the over 4.5 runs and 0.5u on LA to win. Eric Lauer has four straight quality starts and will face a Phillies offense that's been league average at best vs. lefties this year, don't love him but he's been fine.
Mitch Keller's matchup is horrendous today, as he's struggled with left handed batters to the tune of a .283 average and 11 home runs allowed in 63 innings. The WHIP is 1.44 and allowing all those baserunners against a lefty heavy order is likely to yield some runs at some point. Facing what is projecting to be seven left handed hitters in this Yankees order, it will be a major accomplishment for him to pitch well here in a day game in Yankee Stadium vs. this lefty heavy lineup. Yankees F5 TT over 2.5 runs as well.
Jose Cabrera isn't eligible to come back to the MLB just yet after being optioned, which opens the door for the MLB debut of young southpaw Kohl Drake tonight against the A's. If you look at Drake's game log for Reno (AAA), he's finished five full innings in just 5/16 starts this year, albeit Reno isn't the easiest place to pitch, but this line is at his consistent limit and it's his debut against MLB hitters... It also isn't like he has some sparkling numbers at AAA, with a 6.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He's had command issues with a 4.21 BB/9, walking multiple batters in seven of his last nine starts, so he'll need to be exceptional and efficient to complete five innings.
Munetaka Murakami to get just one hit tonight (-160) has some value but I like the Total Bases and Hits, Runs and RBI as good bets. Kumar Rocker has been bad over his last couple starts and has really struggled with left handed batters, giving up a 60% hard hit rate and .381 xwOBA. I would not be surprised to see the Rangers avoid pitching to Murakami here, and he's been walking a ton anyways, so I also bet the 1+ and 2+ walks for 0.5u and 0.25u respectively, but if Rocker gives the slugging lefty something to hit, I love getting solid plus odds for a hit that goes for extra bases.
The Nationals crushed on Friday night but I stayed off them yesterday against the righty JT Ginn. Back against a left hander today and in a great ballpark for hitting, I'm taking the Nats to score a bunch of runs and win this one by at least a couple. Foster Griffin has also been incredible for a Nats starting rotation that desperately needed him, pitching to a 2.77 ERA in 19 starts thus far. On the other side, lefty Jacob Lopez faces off with MLB's top offense vs. lefties, as he brings an ERA near seven into this hitter's haven of a ballpark. Nats get back on track here after a terrible loss last night.
Going to take my shot on Jared Jones again here today, but at a much better price for the same line as last night. Jones is well rested, coming off an outing where he threw six perfect innings, and has turned some of his strikeout numbers up recently. He's been great against lefties with 25 Ks in 20 innings, and featuring a swinging strike rate over 14%. I'm going to go with a 6,7,8 Ks ladder here as he faces a lineup with seven lefties today, where the 4-8 hitters are all 25% or worse for K rate vs. righties.