Erick Fedde will get the luxury of having an opener tonight so Ronald Acuna Jr will have to face the lefty before getting his crack at Fedde. Still, Fedde should be covering the bulk of the innings and he's allowed 33 hits in 28 innings to righties, with 11 of those hits leaving the yard. It's a startling home run total, and with the hot and humid weather in Chicago tonight, I'm going to back Acuna to have an extra base hit or a multi-hit game. He needs a bounce back effort after ending the weekend on an 0-4 with three strikeouts, and he's feasted on righties thus far, with a .291 avg with a near .900 OPS and six homers in 150 plate appearances.
The Yankees likely lose their closer David Bednar tonight after using him for 1.2 innings yesterday, along with seven relievers. I’m betting on Aaron Boone to push Gerrit Cole through the 6th inning here with a thinner bullpen, and he's pitched into the 6th in each start so far. He was pulled at 5.1 innings last time out but completed six innings in each start before that. He allowed a home run, double and a walk before departing last time, but the walk was on a close 3-2 pitch and the home run came on a great swing by Jose Ramirez, on a well-located pitch. I think Cole eats some innings tonight and gets through six innings but even 5.2 would get us a win!
The environment in Las Vegas plays as one of the best hitter's parks in the minor leagues, and southpaw Jeffrey Springs is on the mound against Jackson Chourio and the Brewers. He's always been more of a fly ball pitcher, which explains his numbers being worse at home the last couple years in Sacramento, and this isn't the ballpark to give up hard contact and barrels. The Brewers leadoff man projects for over two total bases tonight, as he's crushing left handers with an OPS above .900 since coming back. Spring's most used pitch vs righties is the fastball and Chourio is hitting that pitch on average at 98+ mph exit velo. I'll back the guy hitting the ball hard and playing with confidence here.
Yordan Alvarez facing off with Grayson Rodriguez is quite the mismatch, at least with each in their current form. Alvarez is making an MVP push, producing a near 1.100 OPS against both right and left handers, while Rodriguez is allowing a 97+ mph average exit velocity to lefties on his fastball. He's thrown that pitch over 55% of the time, allowing three home runs on 20 batted balls. Whether he can grab a couple of hits or an extra base hit, the over 1.5 Total Bases makes for a solid bet in this matchup. Also bet the 1+ walk in case we lose an at bat to a walk, and Rodriguez has had walk issues.
Kyle Harrison has been a revelation for the Brew Crew, pitching to a 1.57 ERA (3.07 xERA) and limiting barrels and hard contact. This game projects over 10 runs, taking place in the Las Vegas heat at a minor league ballpark, where runs should come easy. I'm siding with the much better team who's won 10 of their last 13 games, producing an .804 OPS and 129 wRC+ vs. lefties in the last few weeks. Jeffrey Springs is the far worse starter in this matchup and the A's have a shaky bullpen backing him up, plus they just traded one of their best relievers to Milwaukee on Saturday. Nine at bats for the away team here, so I'm taking the plus money.
The under 17.5 outs is still available at bet365 and fanatics which is a great bet, but the under 16.5 outs at plus odds is showing solid value as well. Freeland was over this line in his last start against the Angels, completing 17 outs, but it was just the second time in 10 starts. The southpaw has struggled to keep good offenses off the board and get deeper into games, while this Brewers team will make you work with deep counts and has hit lefties significantly better of late. Freeland has allowed 4+ earned runs in six of his last seven starts, and this lineup got to him twice last year for 8 hits and 4+ runs in each start.
The price is moving back a good bit here on the 6th strikeout for Taj Bradley this afternoon and I'm backing him to get it done as he did last time for us. The White Sox are rolling with a lefty heavy lineup, which is the better side for Bradley's strikeouts, and it allows him to lean more on his best pitch, the splitter. That pitch has a 57% whiff rate vs. left handed batters this year, and he's able to spread the strikeouts around among three pitches vs. lefties. The fastball, splitter, and curveball combo should be able to do damage against a White Sox lineup that's come in with a K rate near 30% on right handed splitters this year.
The overall projections have Nathan Eovaldi just under six strikeouts but I'm taking the over at -110 on MGM. Eovaldi has turned up the strikeouts of late, going over this line in five straight starts, albeit a couple ended at six. Still, Eovaldi gets to face a lineup that on paper has struggled to the tune of second worst K rate in MLB against the splitter. That's the main strikeout pitch here for Eovaldi, featuring a whiff rate over 40% against righties, and yet still striking out lefties at a high clip, despite a lower whiff rate. Adding Jimmy Crooks and his ~30% K rate into the Cardinals lineup should help as well.
Right around even money, I'm going to back Jose Soriano and the Angels to get a walkover win here tonight. Soriano pitching well is a major key, and his road stats look better but his home numbers are skewed by two rough starts. Kyle Freeland has allowed a home run every three innings to righties, with a .331 average, and he hasn't been better vs. lefties either (.333 avg). A righty heavy order is on tap and the Angles have some big bats that can do deep. Plus, they have seen Freeland a fair bit in their careers for an interleague matchup. The Rockies play in the best hitter's park in baseball yet had the 4th worst wRC+ in MLB during May vs right handers.
Spencer Miles gets his second start in MLB level and this number is just rather low for a guy that's likely to see around 70 pitches if not more today. While he's been an opener or bulk reliever in the past, he is being stretched out to a full starter with all the injuries that have piled up, and he's got strikeout stuff that will play. Miles' last two appearances have both been 4.1 innings, with 63 and 66 pitches, and he's hit 5,6 and 3 strikeouts when working at least 50 pitches. This number and price is more in line with of his previous shorter outings than a guy who should be pushed at least into the 5th inning if he's going well.
Finding some value on the Yankees -1.5 here. JT Ginn actually has been solid, and his underlying metrics are trending in the same positive direction, but he also has just a 15.5 outs line, with favor to the under. If he's not sticking around in this game longer than five innings, that would stress an already overworked A's bullpen that hasn't performed well, after Severino pitched just one inning yesterday. Ginn has struggled when allowing multiple walks too, which likely contributes to the low outs projection and is not a recipe for success vs. this lineup. New York has a much stronger/well-rested bullpen, solid starter, and offense that's been clicking with the addition of Jose Caballero, so I'll back them to outlast the A's.
Carlos Rodon has yet to strike a batter out tonight against this same A's lineup but starting to look at projections for tomorrow and this price on the 6th strikeout makes for some good value. Ryan Weathers has pitched into the 6th inning or further in 8/10 starts since the beginning of April, and with another projected workload into the 6th inning here, around 17 outs, he's popping up around 6.5 Ks. This year when he's exceeded this line, he's gone for 7+ Ks in each start, so I'm also taking 7 and 8 at plus odds.
The Yankees are stacking the lefties against Luis Severino in Sacramento tonight, and for good reason. Left handed batters are hitting .283 off Sevy this year, as opposed to .216 for righties, and he's been far worse at home not only this year but last year as well. In Sacramento in 2026, Sevy has allowed 15 runs and 6 home runs in 24.1 innings, surrendering 4+ runs in 3/4 home starts thus far. Carlos Rodon has limited the hits (and damage to an extent) but walked far too many batters across his first three starts. If he can reign in the free passes, I think the Yankees can outlast the A's here in the end. Have this one closer to -150 so still some value.
If Trevor Rogers completes six full innings here today I'll tip my cap to him, but he's struggled since early in the year to get through even five innnings sometimes let alone six, and he's facing a Blue Jays lineup that's held opposing southpaw starters to less than six innings in 11/13 starts this year. Those stats also include some games where they featured a depleted lineup thanks to injuries, but they've been getting healthier and Kazuma Okamoto has been significantly betters vs. lefties. I say that because he's one of the hitters that's been having a rough time in this lineup but gets a lefty who he's still hitting over .260 against.
With Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin getting days off here, two of the more stingy batters for strikeouts are sitting, with a couple of worse options in Orlando Arcia and Ryan Kreidler getting the day game start. Davis Martin has a deep arsenal of six pitches that he spreads his strikeouts between, and he's a significant favorite to cover at least six innings here. He's hit 1 K/inning in 8/10 starts this year, so the projected work matched with the lineup subs has pushed my projection up to where this +110 is showing some value now.