Grant Holmes was pulled early in his last start, after just four innings and 59 pitches. Even though it was by design, Manager Walt Weiss admitted he pulled Holmes too early, and the starter was unhappy. He threw 99 pitches and went into the 7th inning in the prior start, so on extra rest following that short outing, I like the over. Yes, he's facing the Phillies who are usually a patient lineup, but they've walked at just an 8% clip vs. righties and are tied for the 6th lowest pitches per plate appearance so far. They also have struggled to produce runs of late and lost catcher JT Realmuto last night. Barring a blow up, Holmes should be given the opportunity to pitch deeper.
Starting Tobias Myers may just be all to setup an extra lefty in the Cubs lineup, with hopes that David Peterson can enter the same after a couple of innings. I say may because it isn't confirmed but it sounds like they still plan to use Peterson today at some point. Regardless, Fransisco Alvarez is sitting and he's one of the only bats that's done anything lately. Yesterday really was the spot for the Mets to pickup a win behind their ace but, no dice, and at this price, I'll take the Cubs to finish off the sweep with an even thinner Mets lineup out there on this Sunday.
At -135, this makes for a fair value play and with confirmation Daulton Varsho is out after leaving yesterday's game, I'm siding with Arizona to win. Toronto's in a rut losing five of six and lost another important piece of the lineup last night, while the DBacks get back Lourdes Gurriel off IL here. The Arizona bullpen has been used sparingly the last few games and they rank #1 in MLB over the last two weeks for ERA, as Closer Paul Sewald leads all pitchers in saves. Zac Gallen vs Max Scherzer should favor Gallen at home, but don't love his strikeouts being down. Still, the Toronto lineup is much thinner than usual, and in the end Arizona should be able to outlast them.
I don't play the RBI too often but the price on Aaron Judge to hit a home run is only a dollar better than this and we can grab an RBI in many ways, even without a hit. Judge in a day game against a soft tossing lefty that I don't believe is very good and one he's had success against? Don't mind if I do! I'll be at the game, funny enough Will Warren pitched in the last one I was at a couple weeks ago, and who homered in that day game? The Judge! If you like numbers, Noah Cameron is featuring a .417 expected wOBA on his fastball, and the secondary pitches haven't been spectacular by any means either.
Tanner Bibee has completed five innings just once in four trips to the mound, and has yet to pitch into the 6th inning let alone finish it. He'll be facing a lineup of predominantly regulars for the Orioles tonight and the updated projection has him reaching around 16 outs. At 17.5 for this price on the under, there's value in fading the full six innings. Baltimore's lineup also features six left handed batters, against which Bibee has struggled thus far, allowing 11 hits, four home runs and six walks across just 11.1 innings. The caveat is the weather is colder and likely to help pitchers, but at this price there is still a good bit of value so we'll play it.
Across his first two starts, Jack Leiter struck out eight and nine batters, with 18 and 21 whiffs respectively. There has always been a ton of strikeout upside with Leiter but he's also had his blow ups in MLB level, and last time out against the Dodgers was just that. He was tagged for four runs in the first inning, and things got away from him quickly, but he also got all three outs by strikeout to work out of the jam. Leiter didn't get another strikeout until the 4th inning, while getting behind hitters and walking four total in the game. Tonight, I think he gets back on track with the whiffs, against an A's lineup that's 2nd in MLB for strikeouts vs righties.
I'm going to keep riding the wave here with Texas, who once again shows value on the ML tonight. Jeffrey Springs was significantly worse when pitching in Sacramento last year, and lefty MacKenzie Gore has looked solid and should help neutralize A's star Nick Kurtz. A rested Rangers bullpen gives them a major edge over the A's in the later innings and if this becomes a slugfest, I'd rather be going against the guy who allowed 17 home runs in 14 starts in this ballpark last year.
Chicago's offense was dormant for much of last night's game, but Aaron Nola has had issues with home runs allowed in Philly, both last year and so far in 2026. 11 of his 18 homers allowed in 2025 came at home, and this year his two homers allowed were in his only start in Citizens Bank Park. That was without tonight's 80 degree weather and humidity bump too. Nola needs to keep the ball on the ground to have a chance of beating us, otherwise I think those top-15 HR/FB and HR/9 rates from last year resurface to bite him at some point. The Cubs also walk rate is better than 11% vs righties thus far, and they see an above average number of pitches.
Nathan Eovaldi has struck out at least five batters in all three starts so far, despite some poor results in his first two. He ended with seven strikeouts in two of the three and looked to be settling in during his last start, going six strong innings. Home runs have been an issue, with four allowed in 14.2 innings thus far, but Eovaldi allowed just 10 homers last year in 130 innings so I'll side with some regression there. This price should be far worse than the current -125, and with the whiff rate on his three main pitches all above 38% now, I'm siding with more strikeouts tonight against the league's 2nd highest K lineup vs righties.
Nathan Eovaldi has run into some home run issues that he needs to get in check. Besides the home runs though, he looked great last time out and I'm betting on him to start settling in now. The A's come back from an east coast roadtrip that lasted a week while Texas battled with the Dodgers over the last three days, winning last night. With the matchup of Luis Severino vs Eovaldi, with a F5 ML around -140 for Texas, I am finding some value here on the Rangers to lead after five.
Jose Soriano has been outstanding to begin the year, and projects to top 17 outs once again. We got this at 15.5 in his last start but I'm fine playing the over again here at 16.5 outs, where we don't need to finish six innings to cash. The Reds have the 4th lowest wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year and rookie George Klassen lasted just two innings in this start yesterday. The Angels bullpen will need Soriano to eat up some innings here, and his high ground ball rate will help him pitching in this park, where fly balls become home runs easier. I give LA the F5 advantage as well.
Still a good price here on the under 3.5 where the game total is 6.5. Weather looks to be great for pitching once again, winds blowing in and cold temps. Edward Cabrera has been shutdown in his first two starts, allowing just two hits let alone zero runs, and I don't hate Braxton Ashcraft actually, who's allowed just three runs so far in two starts. Weather and the stagnating Cubs offense paired with how solid Cabrera has been gets me to the under.
Tatsuya Imai struck out nine batters last time out and gets a Mariners lineup that's been near league worst for strikeouts against right handed pitchers so far. Some of the metrics from last year on these hitters skew towards them being better but as for now, I'll bet against them. Seattle returns home from a road trip, and Imai gets to pitch in one of the best pitchers parks in MLB, facing a lineup that struggled last season to not strikeout on the slider. If he can avoid the walks and lean into his whiff heavy slider, he should be able to rack up strikeouts, so I am going with a 6,7,8 Ks ladder as well!
I will be playing some live strikeout bets here on Nolan McLean too, but the price on the 6th strikeout has not moved enough compared to the projection moving to well over six now. Regulars Corbin Carroll, Nolan Arenado and Gabriel Moreno are all out of the lineup, taking two sub-20% strikeout batters away, plus Carroll was sub-25% (in 2025). James McCann and Jose Fernandez are a couple of right handed hitters that have struggled with strikeouts, and McLean has been better vs lefties, which he will face six of tonight. He only had four strikeouts last time while "struggling to get a feel for his pitches" but he still hit 90+ pitches and should have plenty of run to work deeper in the game.
The Tigers are just 4-7, and they've lost seven of their last nine games. It's been a brutal stretch for Detroit, even losing Tarik Skubal's start last night. They have won all four games by double digits though and need a win badly here. Framber Valdez has pitched great in his first two starts, and Bailey Ober for the Twins has allowed six runs in eight innings across two starts. I don't love how the Tigers offense has looked but they are familiar with Ober and did score a couple runs once Taj Bradley was done stifling them last night. Minnesota had to unload the bullpen over the last couple games while Detroit has their top relievers well rested, gaining an advantage in later innings.