Randy Arozarena is hitting nearly .300 this year against left handed pitchers, and Jacob Lopez has been worse at home in Sacramento and against righty batters. The Seattle slugger is coming off a two hit night where a home run helped his team score 19 runs. I think this should be closer to even money at worst, so I see some value on DK for the total bases here. I also played 1+ walk for +118 being that he's sandwiched between two lefties in the order, and Lopez would likely want to go after them rather than Arozarena in a big spot. Over 1.5 HRRBI (-133) would be my first pick but I like Total Bases if we're getting a bit of value.

Jeffrey Springs was great in Seattle last start, covering seven innings and allowing just two hits and no runs, but he has to do it again and at home this time. His ERA splits are noteworthy, with a 7.18 at home vs. nearly three runs less on the road. It's never easy to do well against the same lineup in back to back starts, and this makes for a huge negative park shift. George Kirby has to do the same, after allowing four runs on seven hits last time out against the A's and his road ERA is nearing six. The A's pitchers have to cover nine innings, so I don't mind Seattle Team Total but for the same price, I'll take the full game.

Being on the road for nine straight days now, the Angels are on a long east coast trip and things can get ominous at this point in the season. Cavalli has excelled against lefties for strikeouts but has been better vs. righties of late, and he may get a couple of extra lefties in the bottom of the order which could provide a huge boost. Cavalli has bumped up the swinging strike rate to lefties above 15% in the last month, but to righties the overall K rate is high, even if the underlying stuff has lacked a bit of late. Still, he should be able to grab strikeouts tonight in what makes for a softer matchup.

Kazuma Okamoto has homered in back-to-back games against the A's and he's in the lineup once again for this day game. The A's will use an opener, southpaw Brady Basso, giving us a great matchup early in the game, but even after he's pulled, I like Okamoto's chances of doing some damage. He's produced a hard contact rate above 50% against righties and at 60% against lefties, while continuing to lead the Jays in fly ball rate. This is one of the best hitting environments on the board today, and as we know this ballpark helps turn fly balls into home runs. Even a mere double would be fine though, so at plus odds I'll take the over!

The Cubs knocked Jacob Misiorowski out of the game in just four innings last start, and they'll face him for the second time in a week now. Miz does get the advantage of pitching at home here, as he noted the humidity in Wrigley Field was a problem last time out. Still, I have the Cubs projecting over three runs and would price this around -145 at worst, so I think we have some value left. Even though Chicago only scored three runs last night, they got one late off closer Trevor Megill thanks to a PCA homer, so the full nine at bats is key here. The Brewers bullpen has also been stretched thin over the last few days.

Jacob Lopez has allowed 15 home runs in 75 innings against righties this year, making that the far worse side of his split and putting Kazuma Okamoto in a great spot to go deep. He’s hitting the ball hard nearly 60% of the time when facing a lefty this year, and has a team high 38% fly ball rate to go along with a 16% barrel rate. This ballpark helps turn fly balls into home runs as we’ve seen many times, so take the Blue Jays slugger to hit one (or maybe two) out of the park tonight.

Projecting around 15 outs, or to complete five innings, I'm going to fade Matthew Libertore having a good start in Colorado and sending him through the sixth inning. He's pitching to an expected ERA above four and has been hit hard over 42% of the time in the second half of the season. This is also one of the toughest parks to pitch in, but we'll make this a half unit because to be fair, this is a Cardinals bullpen that's been overworked this week. The projection would make this a full unit play at this price but I'll keep it a half unit due to the uncertainty of outs props and the bullpen work.

Starting a strikeout ladder here on Blake Snell and going 8,9,10 tonight against the Nationals. Snell gets a home start after striking out 10 last time and he'll get three lefties (most likely) in the lineup if we see James Wood, CJ Abrams and Daylen Lile. Wood and Abrams will strikeout vs. southpaws, and a few of the righties in here with solid season long stats have been striking out more of late vs. lefties. Since returning, Snell is pitching to a swinging strike rate above 15%, and has now exceeded 90 pitches in three straight starts. The price being around even money here is showing strong value.

Getting this line at 3.5 runs instead of 4.5 makes a difference with the Rays projecting over four runs but not quite to five. I don't mind taking the plus money shot that they score five but with 3.5 available for the away team, I'll take the over. Trevor Williams hasn't been great in MLB level and opens the game for Kumar Rocker, who has allowed a .282 average to lefties with 12 homers in 71 innings. He's allowed far too many baserunners and tends to use the strikeout to wiggle out of trouble. Tonight, against a lineup of seven lefties that don't strike out much, I'm taking the Rays to get enough men on base (and drive them in) to get over this total.

The Guardians will need Foster Griffin to eat as many innings as possible after Logan Allen went just 2.1 innings in Game One. The Tigers jumped on the Guardians' lefty starter in the early game but they were a bottom-five offense in the 2nd half of the year against lefties up to that point, so we'll see if Griffin will fare better. Still, the setup is that the bullpen used five arms on Thursday, and had to cover a bunch of innings earlier today, so they'll likely try to stretch Griffin as long as they can, even if he's given up some runs. Plus, winning Game One helps to not put as much stress on having to win the 2nd game.

Brandon Young went over this line last time out with seven strong innings against the A's in Sacramento, but I'm going to fade him completing six full innings against the Red Sox. Young has thrown 147 innings thus far, after just 91 innings pitched last year and 111 the year prior. Each start is adding to an already large increase in workload, so there could be some limitations in this final month of the season. Still, he's been one of their better arms so we'll need the Boston bats to hit, or at least the rain to go our way. Thunderstorms and rain move in around game time, so the under would be a great spot to be if they have to delay after starting.

Still some totals at eight available and I'd rather take that to where this has to end with seven runs to beat us. Jacob Misiorowski is obviously fantastic and David Peterson truthfully hasn't been bad either, so I understand the lower total, but the weather forecast is the same as the past five games in Wrigley and the runs have been coming in bunches. The Cubs bullpen is also reeling right now so it may get dicey as they have to pitch to Milwaukee for nine at bats. Winds blowing out, warm mid-80's temps, so let's take the over on this lower total.

We're getting down to the end of the year now and Jacob Misiorowski will likely start to have some restrictions on his pitch counts moving forward. Regardless of the potential limitations, we are fading him to complete six full innings here, against a lineup of the Cubs that sees the fourth-most pitches in baseball and can make any pitcher work. The bullpen for Milwaukee should also have just one pitcher unavailable.

I'll take over 4.5 runs at -118 for the full game team total but as this drifts towards the -135 we get for over 3.5 runs in the First 7 innings, I side with that bet seeing as the Dodgers could lose the bottom of the 9th. Michael McGreevy has been getting crushed at the plate, and for a Cardinals team that's falling further out of playoff contention, he'll continue eating innings at the big league level despite not being great. The hard contact rate is over 45% in the 2nd half of the season, a barrel rate nearing 12% and a 5.48 expected ERA. After a 2-4 road trip, the Dodgers were off Monday and need to keep winning to get a playoff bye.

The entire coaching staff got the boot in LA recently, and now some Angels starters are already making changes to their pitch mix and usage rates. Grayson Rodriguez struggled earlier this year, especially with lefties, but he's been rather solid for over a month now and bumped up his strikeout metrics vs. lefties of late. Rodriguez hit five or more strikeouts in five straight starts before missing with four last time, but we saw Walbert Urena use a changeup to get to eight strikeouts last night, and Grayson has leaned on that pitch for some Ks. With the added slider usage, he could be tougher to figure out, so at plus odds we have some value on this line.