Going to take my shot on Jared Jones again here today, but at a much better price for the same line as last night. Jones is well rested, coming off an outing where he threw six perfect innings, and has turned some of his strikeout numbers up recently. He's been great against lefties with 25 Ks in 20 innings, and featuring a swinging strike rate over 14%. I'm going to go with a 6,7,8 Ks ladder here as he faces a lineup with seven lefties today, where the 4-8 hitters are all 25% or worse for K rate vs. righties.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh come in hot, but the question is whether the 4-day All-Star break cooled them both off. Cleveland has won their last four games, including the last three at Miami, which has one of the best home-field advantages in baseball. The Pirates won three straight, sweeping the first-place Brewers and six of their last eight. I'm looking at a high-scoring game because of Pittsburgh, despite Gavin Williams pitching. Over the last 30 days, Pittsburgh is the No. 1 hitting team in baseball at .288. They're doing everything right offensively, and I think they get to Williams. Over is the play.