Models project this spread closer to 9. Alabama thrives on tempo, ranking 13th in country with 72.6 possessions per 40 min. UConn ranks 316th with 65 possessions per. Alabama's scoring from distance has only gotten better during the tournament -- the Tide are shooting 41.4% from 3 in their last four games. Between the pace and the elite scoring ability, the points are hard to pass up.
Who would dare take an under between two Top-50 tempo and Top-20 offensive efficiency teams? Every model projects this in the 168-170 range, so I will blindly follow. UNC’s defense is elite in transition and rim-and-3 rate, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency. Now the stakes are higher with an Elite 8 berth on the line, so defense will be tighter. What’s great is we can still cash this bet with an 88-85 win.
The wrong team is favored in this one, as models make Colorado the 2-pt favorite. The Buffs have rated highly all season and have gotten better in their last 10 games, ranking #21 nationally in offensive efficiency and #31 in defensive efficiency. Colorado is a strong rebounding team, and now has more of an advantage on the glass with Florida's big man out. In a game that could be decided by a few points, free throws will be the difference. Colorado has the edge here as it shoots 78.1% from the charity stripe.
This is an opportune spot for the Bulldogs. Samford presses at the second-highest rate in the nation, and Kansas ranks among the 10 worst teams in tournament in point per possession against the press. The Jayhawks have no depth as they deal with injuries, and they’re playing in altitude, so they could get tired quickly. Samford also plays zone at the 2nd-highest rate in country. Kansas grades well against zone but in a small sample size, and avoids taking 3s. Note this is a sprinkle, not a full unit play.
Drake is the best defensive rebounding team in the country, which is key against a Wazzu team that usually has the edge on the glass due to their size. The Bulldogs have experience, making the tourney last year and losing to a Miami team that reached the Final Four. Drake ranks #27 in the country in eFG% and #14 in turnover rate.
Over the season, these teams rank Top 25 nationally in adjusted tempo. But both are playing slower during the month of March, with Arizona losing 3 possessions per game and its tempo dropping to #81. If Long Beach (+20.5) wants a chance against Arizona, it won’t try to win in a track meet. Oregon and USC beat the Wildcats by slowing down the pace. But if the ‘Cats holds a large lead late in the game, there’s no reason for them to push the pace. Either way bodes well for the under.
It'll be an exciting matchup in Chicago tonight with both teams 12-3 in the Atlantic 10, one game back of the outright conference lead. Models make this Dayton -3.5, so I'm taking the Flyers' side. The difference is turnovers and free throws. Dayton does a solid job protecting the basketball and minimizing silly turnovers, meanwhile, Loyola-Chicago has a 19.1% turnover rate (last in the conference). Loyola has a great defense, but it leads to way too many trips to the charity stripe for its opponents. The more reserved Dayton defense keeps opposing offenses off the free throw line, ranking 7th in the nation in FTA rate allowed.
The spread should be -3.5 SDSU. New Mexico has been taking more 3-pointers in conference play, and that’s where the SDSU defense is vulnerable. The Aztecs are allowing opponents to shoot 31.5% from beyond the arc -- 11th in Mountain West. Turnovers are also a problem. SDSU's 17.9% turnover rate is 9th in conference. Now it faces the best team in the MWC in forcing turnovers and steals. Meanwhile, the Lobos' offense ranks #1 in taking care of ball.
Models make Iowa State a 3.5-pt favorite. This game will likely come down to the final possessions, but the Cyclones are a bit better at everything across the board. One of the biggest numbers that stands out is Cincinnati's 47.5 eFG% since January 1. It's down from their 52 eFG% in non-con play because they've been shooting just 29% from 3 -- the worst rate in the Big 12. The Bearcats also have trouble holding onto the ball, with a 19% turnover rate. That will be a problem against a Cyclones defense that ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in forcing turnovers and steals.
Models project a total of 147. BYU generates half of its offense from beyond the arc -- its 51.4% 3-pt rate ranks #2 nationally. But Oklahoma has the personnel to match up well. The Sooners ranks #5 in 3-pt defense, holding opponents to 28.2% shooting from downtown. Both rank Top-25 nationally in defensive efficiency. I recommend playing a half-unit since our edge is one possession instead of two.
Dayton already has a slight edge on both ends of the floor in terms of efficiency numbers, and SJU's defense against conference teams has declined compared to non-con competition. Dayton is the better 3-pt shooting team (39.4%, 7th nationally) and free throw-shooting team (74.2%). It's also stingy in giving up fouls, ranking 6th in the nation in defensive FT rate. Back the Flyers as they look for the solo lead in the top-heavy A10 conference. (And a plug for the mothership -- You can watch this one on CBS Sports Network.)
Miami's defense may be a little undervalued here. The Canes' season-long defensive efficiency ranks #172 nationally, but has jumped to #61 in their last 10 games, holding opponents to 98 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, NC State's defensive efficiency has slightly regressed against tougher competition. Miami ranks Top-20 in both making threes and preventing them. Models make this a 1.5-pt game, so we're getting an extra possession here.
Buffalo is out-matched in just about every metric. Out of 262 teams, the Bulls rank #333 of offensive efficiency and #330 in defensive efficiency. The main reason for the offensive woes is their 25.6% 3-pt shooting which ranks #360. Meanwhile, Ohio ranks above-average and third in the MAC in offensive efficiency. Buffalo also can't hang onto the ball, while Ohio excels at forcing turnovers. Models project a 17.5-point spread.
The tempo in this game should be a bit faster than normal, but the total is still too high. In a competitive conference matchup, defense should win. Georgia is holding opponents to a 45.3% effective FG rate (21st nationally) and rarely fouls. While Arkansas's defense is average, Georgia's offense is nothing special either, and the Dawgs are one of the worst in the country on the offensive glass and second-chance points.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, and defenses should have the edge on both ends of the floor. Tennessee ranks #4 and MSST ranks #11 in defensive efficiency. Both are holding opponents to a 43% effective FG rate.