Alabama can flat out score. We know that. We don't, however, know if they can beat a top-ranked team (the Tide had only one win over a ranked opponent during the regular season), or slow down North Carolina big man Armando Bacot. I am going to lay the points here and back the Tar Heels, who rank near the top of the country in defensive efficiency.

There no secret Alabama’s defense is not the greatest. However, they’re going to push the pace to get their points. The Tar Heels went down by 12-points early to Michigan State and fought their way back to an easy cover. Alabama comes off a game where they shot 8-31 from three, so they could be in for some positive regression and if they aren’t falling early, they’re still going to shoot. The Crimson Tide have athletic players down low to compete with Bacot and Ingram to get some much-needed stops.

North Carolina was a trendy team to go down in their last game against Michigan State. The Spartans just could not execute enough in the half court on two occasions with a big lead and a comeback in the second half. Alabama offensively is going to give North Carolina problems with their flurry of runs and the high level play of Mark Sears. They may survive but the result will favor the underdog. Grab the points with Alabama.

Everyone is on UNC, which is worrisome, but the Heels are clearly the better team overall and have been cash money under Hubert Davis in the NCAA Tournament. I'll like this even more if Bama guard Latrell Wrightsell is out, and he's questionable. He's one of the team's top three-point shooters and there's not much depth in the backcourt after the top four guys, of which Wrightsell is one. Pretty small team, too, so UNC's Armando Bacot should put up yet another double-double. The Tide are a horrible defensive team as it is.

If Bama is going to advance much further, it has to win games that pace like Sunday's 72-61 win over Grand Canyon. But we need more evidence that the Tide's defense is actually up to it after also being hit for 96 by Charleston in the preceding round, and has mostly leaked profusely this season. Remember, the Tar Heels have many rebounders who crash the offensive glass, a problem for a team with occasional issues on the defensive boards like Bama. UNC was also flying in the sub-regionals at Charlotte, powering for 88 ppg in wins and covers vs.. Wagner and Michigan State, suggesting more problems for the Tide and its defense. Play UNC (NCAA at Los Angeles)

The Crimson Tide will need all their weapons against potent North Carolina, and Alabama senior guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. -- the team's top 3-point shooter at 44.3 percent -- is iffy at best. He took an elbow to the head in Alabama's win over Grand Canyon. UNC's offense is excellent, but its defense is even better (No. 6 per KenPom). The Tide have struggled to slow down dominant big men, setting up Armando Bacot (14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg) for a monster performance. Look for the ACC to continue its incredible ATS run (29-9-1 ATS the last two NCAA Tournaments).

Alabama had some issues at the end of the season losing four of their last six games and they covered only once in their last seven games. They led the nation in scoring at 90 ppg and North Carolina will gladly play along as they averaged 80 ppg. I think the total should be closer to 182 so I think I have an edge. UNC will allow Alabama to play fast and match their play. Alabama went over 25-9 this season. Over is the best play.

Alabama is overvalued. The opening round opponent was tailor made for them, Gran Canyon would have beaten Bama but for shooting 2/20 from 3. Meanwhile Carolina will dominate the glass and should make more FTs than Alabama attempts.

Throwback tourney - chalks walks/elite big men rule. UNC has a monster in the paint and he will eat here. I didn't love UNC backcourt in transition/ball-handling wise vs Sparty (still covered easy for us), but Izzo's kids will do that to you. Alabama doesn't believe in playing defense, can't win on the boards here and Grand Canyon showed you can back them off their breakneck pace. UNC 8-2 ATS when laying 2-to-6 points (Tide 0-4 catching 2-6) and 15-6 ATS with this extreme rest. Will pay the price to get below 4 while I still can. Of KenPom's top 10 AdjD teams , 8 still alive (UNC 6th). ALA outlier at 101. Avg AdjD ranking of 15 remaining teams - 24.4. Could get ugly.

Who would dare take an under between two Top-50 tempo and Top-20 offensive efficiency teams? Every model projects this in the 168-170 range, so I will blindly follow. UNC’s defense is elite in transition and rim-and-3 rate, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency. Now the stakes are higher with an Elite 8 berth on the line, so defense will be tighter. What’s great is we can still cash this bet with an 88-85 win.

When the brackets were released, I circled this potential spot for UNC. Alabama still has the same issues it did when entering the Tournament. However, the Tide got a perfect Round 1 matchup then drew Grand Canyon instead of Saint Mary's in Round 2. Let's look at those two wins. Charleston scored 96 points and Grand Canyon shot 2-for-20 from three and was down just one point with four minutes left. I think Bama's luck runs out in the Sweet 16. UNC will live at the foul line, dominate the offensive boards, and beat the Tide in transition. Bama has struggled vs. top teams all season and I don't see that changing. I make UNC -6, so grab them early at -4.