I think the Bills are way more live to win this game than most, but I want to target the first half as I worry about Derrick Henry running downhill against an undersized defense in the second half. The Bills defensive splits at home are much better and they've got a relatively healthy defense going into this game versus the Week 4 matchup. I also like this Bills offense at home (and in general) and there's a possiblity this Ravens newfound defensive prowess has been a result of some layup matchups over the last two months. Give me the Bills 1st half behind their home field crowd.

I believe this number opened at 28.5 and most sportsbooks took some action and it's now 33.5 at most places. BetMGM still has the 29.5 and I'm happy to take it there (I'm ok with the 33.5. It's not my favorite ladder, but that is in play as well). Dyami is averaging 4+ targets over his last 5 games and he's been very efficient with them. He's also a big play threat and could potentially get this on one catch. JD is slated to throw for 230+ in what's likely to be a negative game script and it's not all going to Terry McLaurin. I expect Dyami and Olamide to get their fair share.

This is not an offense that wants to put it in CJ Stroud's hands for an entire game, but they may have no choice. Against good rush defenses, Joe Mixon has been largely ineffective and this Chiefs rush defense is quite good. With Mixon being held in check it will all rest on Stroud and a host of backup WRs (outside of Nico Collins). This will result in more passing volume than normal. Passing efficiency is a different question which is why I'm going with "Attempts" over "Completions." You can catch this number at FanDuel, but I'd be willing to play it at 34.5 if that's where your book has it.

This is a big number, but I think we are about to see the best version of the Chiefs. Key players have been resting for 2-3 weeks and additional key players are back on both sides of the ball. I don't see how the Texans score, particularly with Jaylen Watson back and what will amount to a non-existent Texan running game. I like the Texans Team Total Under as well, but I'm going to lay the points as I think the Chiefs put up enough offense to cover this line.

I don't mind laying the points, but FanDuel is providing a reasonable ML price and I'm going to go with it as I think this game may be quite close. Both of these teams have shown blemishes down the stretch of the season, but I give the Vikings the slight edge from a body of work and talent standpoint. Vikings lost the first matchup, but that was a travel spot on 4 days rest and now they get a neutral site with Blake Cashman and TJ Hockenson in the lineup (they didn't play in the first matchup). I think this Rams offense continues to sputter and we see Darnold and the Vikings offense regress to the mean from last week's performance against the Lions.

OIamide Zaccheaus has now established himself as the WR2 for Washington and that has resulted in hitting this total in three straight games. In what will likely be a neutral or negative game script, with Jayden Daniels projected for 230 passing yards, some of that production will go to Zaccheaus. Add that he also lines up in the slot a good amount which is a weak spot for the Bucs secondary. This number is at BetMGM. Other books have 37.5 and I'm fine with that number.

I was a fade on the Texans going into the year and I'm going to be a fade on the Texans to close the year. It's a nice matchup for the Chargers as they shouldn't need to do much on offense to get this cover. With that said, Justin Herbert has excelled lately and he is equipped with a good offensive line, a healthy starting RB and at least one very talented receiver. The Texans offense has sputtered, thanks in part to a sophomore slump and some injuries and I don't expect them to move the ball against this solid Chargers defense.

This is a pretty big line for a WR2, but it's definitely warranted as we are looking at a shooutout in Detroit on Sunday night. Addison has been averaging 6+ targets over his last 6 games and he goes up against a Lions secondary that continues to get gashed (thanks in large part to injuries). Sam Darnold is slated to pass for 280 yards and a big chunk of that should go to a chunk play specialist in Jordan Addison. Only half of the major books have player props out for this game and the other half likely release them later this afternoon, so keep an eye out if your book has yet to release them.

This line has crept up a couple of yards, but I still think it's very bettable at this 35.5 number (BetMGM). There are three RBs that get touches on this team, but in a must win, you need to go to your best one and that is clearly Jaleel McLaughlin. The carries and efficiency have been there recently and he's projected to see 8-9 carries. Add the fact that the Chiefs are resting over half of their defensive starters, including Chris Jones, and it could be a great mix for Jaleel to establish himself as the clear RB1 heading to the playoffs.

You may think I'm chasing last week's performance against the Bengals, but the truth is, Marvin Mims has smashed this number in 5 of his last 6 games. Bo Nix likes to spread it around to all of his pass catchers, but Mims has clearly carved out enough of a role to get 4+ targets per game and it's been 8 and 5 targets over his last two games. He's getting the work, he's been efficient and he gets downfield and that is a great setup for an over at such a low number. This game is tricky with Denver being such huge favorites, but I think Bo Nix continues to look in Marvin Mims direction.

San Francisco is in unfamiliar territory with the final two games of their season rendered meaningless. They'll certainly roll out most of their starters and play to win, but I also think they'll give their young talent some extra looks. Said young talent includes rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall had an ugly sequence last week with two illegal formation penalties, but he's also had 4 targets in each of his last two games (for 16 and 37 yards). I expect at least 4 targets in a likely trailing game script and against a very banged up Lions defense. A ladder is in play for the 1st Round pick with 4.41 speed.

Sam Darnold is projected to have 260+ passing yards and 21 completions and I think at least 2 of those completions will result in a touchdown. The Packers rush defense has been particularly stout lately and I think most of the Vikings success will be through the air. In what's projected to be a high scoring affair in perfect conditions, I'll take the guy who has hit this prop in 3 of his last 4 games.

This one will feel like a playoff game for both teams and I think both offenses will have success. While teams can definitely run on the Bengals, the stable of RBs for Denver is far from elite and I expect Denver to be playing from a negative game script for a good portion of this game. More compelling is the fact that Bo Nix has been throwing the ball near the line of scrimmage at a high rate and that should equate to plenty of efficiency, particularly against a soft Bengals defense.

We recently cashed fading the Bears in the first half and we're going right back to it. The Bears are a mess and Caleb and Company only seem to get it going when they're down multiple touchdowns. Seattle is coming off two losses to two of the best teams in football and are in must win mode as they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. Look for them to come out angry and put the pedal down quickly on a team that continues to slide.

Jordan Love hasn't hit this number in any of his last 5 games and I see no reason why this game will be any different. The game script calls for the Packers playing with a big lead which should mean leaning on the running game and taking the air out of the ball for a good portion of this game.