Sia's Picks (1 Live)
Sia's Past Picks
BetMGM has this at even money and I think that's pretty good value in a game that could come down to who has the ball last. I was hoping the Cowboys would get Diggs back for this game, but either way, they are the healthier team on both sides of the ball and I think Detroit is going to have trouble leaning on its secondary and its beat-up wide receiver group and offensive line. Yes, the game is in Detroit and the Lions are still a solid team, but 3 points is too much to give to the Cowboys right now.
Tyrone Tracy has exceeded this rushing attempt number in each of his last three games and that was against some solid rush defenses. The Patriots are another elite rush defense as far as the metrics go, but they are without Milton Williams and that should keep Tracy very involved the gameplan. Devin Singletary will steal some carries from Tracy, but expect a heavy dose of the run game with Tyrone Tracy leading the way. I also like his over of 47.5 Rush Yards.
Apologies for the late post but Chimere Dike props didn't populate until late last night. The game logs for Dike have been a little sketchy lately as he has been very hit or miss, but this is a game where we have a nice matchup against a gettable Jaguars pass defense. I don't see a ton of success from the run game for the Titans and I do think they lean on Cam Ward (projected for 200+ pass yards where I lean to the over). I think the Titans will be competitive, but we also have the potential for a negative game script which should get Dike a couple more targets.
Draftkings is still hanging at -10 and I'll gladly take it. There's not much positive you can say as it relates to how Carolina matches up against the Rams. The Rams have an incredibly dynamic offense and the Panthers defense is now down two important pieces in the secondary. The Carolina offense will try and establish the run, but this is a great Rams rush defense and their pass defense should have no issue with Bryce Young. It's a lot of points and it's a west coast team playing a 1:00 start, but these two teams are worlds apart. I'm ok playing the 10.5 if that's where it is at your book.
It's a little expensive with respect to the juice, but it's worth taking the 23.5 as opposed to 24.5. Patrick Mahomes has hit this completions number in 6 of 8 games and the matchup against the Cowboys should lead to similar results. The Cowboys Front 7 has certainly improved and the Chiefs are most likely to utilize the short area air attack as opposed to the run game. That will translate into extended and efficient drives where Mahomes can pile up the completions. Look for Dallas to put up some quick strike points as well which will hand the ball right back to Mahomes to slowly matriculate the ball downfield with his arm.
As I was beginning to put this pick through, the line jumped from 204.5 to 208.5 at Fanduel and 206.5 to 208.5 at Draftkings (I hope that doesn't end up mattering). Bryce Young has only exceeded this number twice this year, but I think all the ingredients are present for a solid passing day as he's got his full complement of receivers, a likely negative game script, a high projected point total and a 49ers defense that can't rush the passer. Yes, the Panthers will try to run the ball, but they haven't been quite as efficient in that department and I suspect Robert Saleh will force Bryce Young to lean on his arm just like he was forced to (successfully) do last week.
Stafford's passing volume hasn't been staggeringly high lately, but that's in large part due to matchups and game script. Last week's 15 completions was more of a matchup issue as Seattle dared the Rams to run the ball, but this week Stafford has a good setup to pass against a great Tampa rush defense. Add that the Bucs love to bring pressure and Stafford's ability to beat pressure and I think we'll see a lot of passing and efficiency. I think this game will be reasonably competitive as well which should keep the passing game pedal down.
[I'm ok playing this line at 33.5 as long as it's -110 or shorter and I lean to the Completions over at 19.5 at anything short of -130]. Last week Winston only threw the ball 29 times but that game was highly competitive and included 35 rush attempts between Tracy and Singletary. This game is likely to get out of hand quickly in a great bounce back spot for Detroit. Look for the Giants and Winston to lean on the passing game in catch up mode. I don't suspect we'll see a ton of efficiency which is why I lean to the attempts (however, I do think there will be enough short area throws for Jameis to hit both).
This is a bet that I like more for the ladder potential as I think Adonai Mitchell has plenty of upside. I realize he plays on the Jets and tends to drop wide open balls, but what does Mike McClure always say about guys who drop wide open passes: they're good at getting wide open. We've got a negative game script, an upgrade at QB (Tyrod Taylor) and a Ravens defense that likes to play aggressive man-coverage, which provides all the ingredients to take a shot at 40+, 50+ (and beyond, depending on your appetite). The Jets OC has been gushing praise over Adonai. He'll get some opportunities. I like the regular line up to 33.5.
I had the Woody Marks rushing over last week and it didn't pan out, but as expected, the volume was there. There has been a changing of the guard at the RB position in Houston and that has led to 32 carries over the last two games for Marks. Now he's up against one of the worst rush defenses in the league (Bills allowing 5.4 YPC) at home and he's projected for approximately 16 carries. I expect the Texans defense to keep things relatively close which should result in getting Woody Marks the volume he needs to get to this number. I'd play it up to 63.5. This number is at BetMGM.
Jayden Higgins has 7 or more targets in 3 of his last 4 games and appears to be the WR2 on Houston. I think this game will be closer than people think, but Mills will be required to throw at times and Higgins is likely to be the primary target after Nico Collins (Bills are great defending the TE position which should limit Schultz but they are weak against outside WRs). The Bills pass rush has also been questionable as of late and that should lead to Mills having some time to connect with his rookie wideout. A pretty low number here and Higgins won't need to do much to topple it.
The production has been decent for Derrick Henry as of late, but I think this number is too high on the road in Cleveland. The Browns have faultered a bit lately against the run, but they are still a top rush defense from a YPC and yards before contact standpoint. Henry will get plenty of volume, but I think he has a lot of insignificant runs mixed in against the Browns.
Best number is at Draftkings and I'd be willing to play this where it is at other books at 61.5. Marks appears to be in the lead role now and that played itself out last week with his 14 rushing attempts (63 rushing yards v Jags). This week he is projected for between 14-16 rushing attempts against a Titans Defense that has a very hard time defending the run (allowing almost 5 YPC). The Titans are at home, coming off a bye and may get Jeffery Simmons back, but I still think this number is too low for a Woody Marks workhorse role.
It's tough to tie an over to anything correlating with JJ McCarthy, but if McCarthy can't throw on the Chicago Bears at home in a controlled environment, then he can't throw period. Enter Justin Jefferson who gets a great matchup and how is averaging double digit targets over his last 6 games. The yardage has been pedestrian for Jefferson, and that's mostly due to accuracy issues from his quarterback, but this matchup lends itself to more efficiency on just as many targets.