

Sia Nejad
Counselor of Cash
Sia Nejad is a trial attorney turned analyst who specializes in the PGA, NFL and college basketball. He further specializes in the DFS and prop markets. Sia's golf plays -- matchups, first-round leaders, tournament outrights -- have achieved legendary status, but he's also coming off three highly successful NFL seasons. Since he began posting NFL prop bets on SportsLine in 2023, Sia is 139-102-1 (plus $1,818 for $100 bettors). Sia hosts The Early Edge at 10 a.m. ET every weekday on SportsLine's YouTube page, plus he hosts EE on CBS Sports Network as well as Fantasy Football Today DFS. For Sia Nejad media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Sia's Picks
4 Live PicksWhich of the Titans wide receivers will step up in the absence of Carnell Tate?...
Will the Vikings defense put a stop to the Jordan Love MVP campaign?...
Will Drake Maye continue to put up the touchdowns against Detroit?...
An interesting price, considering Williams has only hit this over in 2 of 8 games. As far as the receiving options that get volume against the Giants, I think we are looking at more Diggs, Okonkwo and the running backs and a little less of guys like Antonio Williams. This is partially due to the Giants' ability to generate pressure and the likelihood that JD5 will get the ball out quickly and in the middle of the field. Washington will also be happy to try and run the ball as long as the game is close. Either way, I don't see this as a big volume game for Antonio Williams.
There's no question that Carson Wentz is an upgrade for the Vikings, but I still don't think it's enough to beat and cover against the Bills. The one potential weakness for this Vikings defense is stopping the run and I think James Cook and Josh Allen will be able to run the ball. It's also notable that while the Vikings defense is great, they haven't faced the best set of offenses in the first half of the season (with one or two exceptions). Yes, the Bills have been giving up some points, but I think they do just enough to get out of Minnesota with a win and a cover.
Caleb Williams has hit this completions over in each of his last three games against some pretty great defenses. He gets another great defense this week versus the Bucs and I expect the path of least resistance to be via the passing game rather than the run. More specifically, I think the run game will be relatively inefficient and that short and intermediate passing will move the chains for the Bears. As good as this Bucs defense is playing, I'll take Ben Johnson scheming over Todd Bowles every time. Look for another solid game from Caleb Williams at home in primetime. Best number and price is at BetMGM and DK currently.
Jordan Love has thrown 2+ passing touchdowns in 7 of his 8 games this year. He gets a tough test against the Patriots defense, but that tough test is met with a passing yards line north of 270+. Considering the amount of passing volume we expect from this offense and the success they've been having with it, I'll go ahead and take plus money on Jordan Love to do it again.
Bijan Robinson has hit this Longest Rush number in 6 of 8 games. He gets a Bengals defense that has been solid but inconsistent against the run. That inconsistency was showcased last week when Pollard rushed for 117 yards, which included a 40 yard TD run. The Bengals interior may stuff some runs (particularly inside), but it's also a unit that is below average in Yards Before Contact Allowed and is no stranger to explosive rushes. Bijan is slated for 19-20 rush attempts and he should spring one of them for 18+. This number is at DK and I'd also play it at 18.5.
If the Ravens want to have any chance to win this game, they'll need to lean on Zay Flowers to move the chains and have some spike plays. Joe Fagnano is by no means impressive, but he stands tall in the pocket, and as long as he gets some semblance of protection, he can deliver a good ball. The Ravens OLine is healthier than it was on Sunday and Jacksonville has always been more of a pass funnel. Look for plenty of designed plays to Zay in the short to intermediate area and look for the YAC to get us home. I'd play this up to 48.5.
The Seahawks are flying high with a decisive win over the Chiefs on national television, but they host a Bears team that is also playing good football. More specifically, the Bears have some additions that make them far more formidable including Jeffery Simmons, Montez Sweat and TJ Edwards. Add Kyler Gordon who has been back for a couple of weeks and this defense is in a different tier. The Bears are also on extra rest which gives an edge to the players and to HC Ben Johnson. I don't mind playing this at +3 as that's where a lot of books have this line.
I'm pretty confident that Burrow will have another great game, but I think his success will be predicated on efficiency rather than volume. The Titans pass defense has been gettable all season (speaking to the Burrow efficiency) and the loss of Jeffrey Simmons also may lead to a more run-centric approach from the Bengals. We also have a double digit spread that may cater to less Burrow volume in the 2nd half. Even in competitive games, Burrow tends to fall under this number (he's only surpassed 36 attempts twice this season) and I think we'll see more of the same on Sunday. The 36.5 is at FanDuel and BetRivers and I'd stay away from the 35.5. Play the 36.5 at -135 or better.
It's been a tough run out for Chase Brown through the first couple months of the season, but he's also faced a lot of Top 10 rush defenses. On Sunday he gets a below average rush defense, and on top of that, a defense that just traded away their best run stopper in Jeffrey Simmons (John Franklin-Myers pretty good too). I think we see a concerted effort to get Chase Brown rolling again and the game script should help us out quite a bit as the Bengals are double digit favorites. Look for Brown to get 13-15 carries and finally showcase some efficiency per carry (also like his longest rush over of 13.5). Play this up to 55.5.
Opportunity is knocking for Kendrick Bourne as he faces the Cowboys defense and another likely negative game script. Last week Bourne had a very poor game totaling 9 yards (he did have 6 targets). The two prior games Bourne had 47 and 70 yards and 8 targets in each. Bourne is in a great spot to stay on the field after Jalen Brooks went on IR (I suspect we'll see Bourne mostly in the slot, but also outside) and with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride commanding so much attention, I think we'll see him sail past the 31.5 total (notable that Brissett's passing yards prop is 250+). This line is at DK and I'd play it up to 34.5.
The squeaky wheel narrative is firmly in play this week for Garrett Wilson against the Raiders. His targets have dwindled and he made sure to voice his displeasure on the sideline against the Dolphins last week. Geno Smith is slated for 220+ passing yards, and while he has his full complement of receivers, I suspect Wilson will get a lot of his attention in what should be a competitive game. This is a vulnerable Raiders pass defense which makes it a great spot for a bounce back. I'd play this up to 57.5.









