Missouri was projected as a 10-seed before their most recent loss to the Razorbacks. Missouri now finds themselves with more work to do and little room for error. At home, the Tigers are 14-2 SU but only 7-9 ATS. However, when a home underdog, they're 3-0 SU & ATS. Tennessee has won nine of their last 10 games but also have Bama on deck Saturday. The Tigers shoot 58.4% from the field, at home, and create matchup issues with size on the perimeter. This one means more for Missouri and they’re also 5-1 ATS in the last six against the Volunteers.
Towson has a significant edge on the boards, especially offensively. The Tigers have also won seven of the last eight meetings between these two. However, they’re 2-9 SU on the road and 1-3 ATS as away favorites this season. Drexel is 10-4 SU at home and has the much better defense with limiting their opponents offensive efficiency. Both teams are near the bottom in the country from the stripe but the Dragons have been shooting over 71% from the line over their last three games and Towson has really struggled offensively on the road.
Utah is off a surprising win over the Mountaineers on the road. This line is fishy and it’s tempting to back Utah in this spot since they’re 3-1 ATS as an home underdog. If the Utes were getting more points then maybe, but UCF is fighting for an at-large bid. The Knights have the athleticism to control the boards and are the much better free throw shooting team in this pick ‘em game.
Miami Ohio took the first meeting of the season, on the road, scoring 93 points. The RedHawks are 7th in the country in points, 88.2 points per game, and at home they’re scoring 90.5. Bowling Green has an above average defense but it’s difficult to slow down this offense especially with how the RedHawks space the floor with their ball movement. In conference play, Miami Ohio has gone over 80 points, or more, in 11 of 13 conference games thus far.
The Eagles have dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 14 meetings. Sacramento State has dropped three straight and now return home where they’re 9-2 SU. The Eagles took the first meeting but that was at home. On the road, Eastern Washington is 3-13 SU and 0-2 as road favorites. The Hornets push the pace at home and will look to get out in transition, creating fouls against an Eastern Washington team that has been prone to fouls of late. The Hornets are a top-10 team from the free throw line and shoot over 43% from three at home.
New York comes into a tough game right out of the All-Star break. No Jalen Duren or Isaiah Stewart tonight for the Pistons, suspensions, which should hurt their rim protection. New York got embarrassed the first two meetings but those were on the road. Before the break, the Knicks were 8-1 SU and ATS and will be looking for some revenge. New York is currently own an NBA-best 19-9 ATS at home this season, including 5-1 ATS across their previous 6 home games. The Knicks added a Jeremy Sochan to give them more depth and help defensively. New York did not have Jose Alvarado in the first two meetings, who brings energy and scrappy, pest-like defense.
No Richie Saunders for BYU and no Koa Peat for the Wildcats. Without Saunders, where is the scoring going to come from? BYU is going to, now, lean even more heavily on AJ Dybansta and Robert Wright. Those two were able to take over the game, at home, against the Buffaloes but they don't have a defense like Arizona. The Wildcats have a top-5 defense in the country and will key in on Dybansta and Wright. Besides those two, BYU doesn’t have another player averaging in double figures.
Saint Joseph’s won the first meeting of the season and are also on an 8-2 ATS stretch over their last 10 games. On the other side, the Bonnies have failed to cover in each of their last three home games. St. Bonaventure has really struggled defending this season, allowing almost 78 points at home. The Hawks have the much better defense with the ability to defend the perimeter where St. Bonaventure leans heavily for their points.
These are the top two defenses in the Big-12. Both programs do an excellent job in protecting the rim and denying the paint, forcing the game into the half-court. Houston doesn’t get to the free-throw line often, relying on the three but aren’t efficient, and haven't attacked the rim as much settling for mid-range shots. The Cougars offense can go stagnant at times and Iowa State’s defense is just as good, holding their opponents to less than 61 points per game. Quick turnaround for the Cyclones exerting a lot of energy in their win over Kansas too. Points should come at a premium tonight as four of the last five meetings have also gone under the total.
Towson is one of the slowest teams in the country, less than 64 possessions per game. Even though the Tigers are playing on the road, it always seems like they dictate the pace. Monmouth only averages 67 possessions per game and are 7-3 to the under at home. Towson is also 7-3 to the under on the road as well. The last two times these two played, the total was 136.5, with both games going under.
Neutral court game in Nashville. If you’ve been in the Friday Night Lines Spaces on X, Virginia is one of my dark horses. However, they’ve been playing with fire of late, 1-4 ATS in their last five SU wins. The Cavaliers have played down to their opponents especially the bottom feeders in the ACC. Ohio State is 1-7 SU against Quad 1 teams as they’re currently on the outside looking in for the big dance. The Buckeyes aren’t strong from three but they can score inside and Virginia’s interior defense has been struggling recently. The Buckeyes should be motivated to battle and keep Virginia off the offensive glass.
Duke is the better team on both sides of the ball. However, the Tigers style is very slow and wants force the game into a half-court contest. Clemson has been competitive against the Blue Devils, covering five of the last seven meetings. Duke is on an 0-3 ATS run and is 4-8 ATS in the past 12 games when favored by double digits. Clemson has only been an underdog twice this season and covered both times.
DePaul hasn’t beaten the Bluejays since 2015, 0-23 SU. Creighton has lost their last four road games, but the Blue Demons have also dropped four straight. DePaul is 10-4 SU at home, where their defense is much better, holding their opponents to less than 67 points per game. The Blue Jays are not what they once were, post-Ryan Kalkbrenner, and on the road, they struggle to reach 70 points consistently. DePaul’s perimeter and free throw shooting is better at home as they look to end the 23-game losing streak to the Blue Jays.
Belmont already beat the Braves by 10-points in the first meeting. Bradley relies heavily on their guard play and the three ball but struggle inside the arc, where the Bruins have a big edge. Belmont’s defense isn’t as good as their offense but they defend the floor better than the Braves. Belmont has much better ball movement on offense along with defending the perimeter, and limits second-chance opportunities. It’s hard to go against the number one team in the nation when it comes to effective field goals.
Louisville has covered in four straight against the Wolfpack, despite being 1-3 SU in those games. These are two very similar teams, stats wise. However, NC State has versatility on defense to be able to limit the Cardinals three-point volume which could end up being the difference maker, along with protecting the ball edge to NC State.