Bob's Past Picks
This is a get away day for the Brewers as they’ll travel to St. Louis tomorrow to take on the Cardinals. The first two games of this series have seen eight runs, or less, thus far and Spencer Schwellenbach has had a good season to this point, 3.24 ERA. Milwaukee’s offense is only hitting .235 on the year and has failed to score more than four runs in five straight games. The Braves have only scored more than four runs twice in their first nine games in June. With this early start time, some key bats on both sides might have a day off.
This total seems high with these two starting pitchers on the mound and the juice towards the total indicates it may go over. However, Noah Cameron owns a 1.42 home ERA and has only allowed a combined three runs in five starts this season. Max Fried has been dominant all season, minus the Dodgers start, owning a 1.78 overall ERA. Kansas City has been only hitting .244 against lefties this season and even if Cameron gets into trouble with this Yankees lineup, he's backed by an above average bullpen with a 3.44 ERA, currently, in the AL.
San Diego returns home after a seven-game road trip and are currently tied with the Dodgers for the NL West lead. Nick Pivetta is off to a great start at home this season, 1.69 ERA, while Dustin May has struggled on the road, 5.40 ERA. Despite having one of the best offenses in the league, Los Angeles has scored three runs, or less, in five of their last eight games. The Padres offense is in similar territory, scoring three runs, or less, in three straight while also in seven of their last 10 games. Both starters are backed by two bullpen with an ERA lower than four as well.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed three runs, or more, in eight of his last nine starts. He’s backed on the second-worst bullpen in the AL as well with a 5.75 ERA. Seattle is hitting .256 on the road this season, 3rd in the majors. The Angels have had some high scoring games of late with three of their last five exceeding nine runs. Despite a few offensive outburst, Los Angeles are only hitting .221 over their last seven days but have a favorable matchup against Byce Miller, who doesn’t appear to be 100% healthy, owning 5.68 road ERA.
Max Fried takes the mound for New York tonight, owning a 1.69 home ERA. He’s also allowed two runs, or less, in 11 of his last 12 starts. The Guardians have struggled against lefties this season, hitting .224 on the season. Slade Cecconi makes his fourth start and New York’s lineup hasn’t seen much of him in their careers. Each team has a middle of the pack bullpen, currently, in the AL, below a four ERA and the Yankees haven’t been performing to their standards offensively of late.
Jonathan Cannon has already faced the Tigers once this season and allowed three runs in 3.2 innings, but that was on the road. At home, Cannon owns a 1.17 ERA in three starts. Jack Flathery has been pitching well of late only allowing three runs in his last 12.2 innings with 16 strikeouts. Detroit’s bat have cooled off of late, hitting .200 over their last seven days and the White Sox are only hitting .220 as a team at home on the season. Detroit is also 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games overall.
Three of the first four meetings between these two this season have seen eight runs, or less. Both of these starting pitchers have been in great form in May. In three starts in May, Seth Lugo owns a 2.89 ERA while Casey Mize owns a 3.00 ERA. Detroit’s bats have cooled off a little, hitting .215 over their last seven days, despite winning four straight, and the Royals have scored four runs, or less, in six straight. Both starts are backed by a top six bullpen in the AL as well.
The first two games of the series went under the total. Both of these teams are in the bottom six in the league in runs per game and Toronto is only hitting .235 on the road thus far. Tyle Mahle owns a 0.95 home ERA and has only allowed three runs in a game in one of his 11 starts this season. The Rangers offensive struggles have continued against lefties all year, hitting .212 with a .602 OPS. The last four meetings between these two have gone under in each game.
This is an oddly low total for a Cubs game. The winds are blowing in 11mph, and Colorado has had difficulty offensively throughout the entire season. They’re currently last in runs per game on the road, averaging 2.44 runs. German Marquez has really struggled on the road, 11.12 ERA, and as allowed a combined 10 runs over this last two road starts but only allowed one run to the Phillies in his last start at home in seven innings. Cade Horton has a favorable matchup against this struggling Colorado lineup and has yet to allow over three runs per game in his first three starts.
Hunter Greene makes his first start in over two weeks after a groin injury and faces one of the best hitting teams on the road this season, hitting .273. Before his injury, Greene owned a 1.44 home ERA. The Reds have really struggled against lefties, hitting .206 on the year and just faced two lefties against Pittsburgh and only scored a combined two runs in two games. Matthew Boyd has yet to win a road game thus far but owns a sub-three road ERA. Even if Greene gets into trouble, he’s back by the 3rd bets bullpen in the NL, 3.30 ERA.
Neither of these teams have been performing well offensively of late. Tampa Bay is hitting .236 over their last seven days and the Astros are hitting .219. These are also two of the better under teams in the majors thus far. It’s also a bullpen day for Houston as they own the best bullpen ERA in the AL, 2.71. Zack Littell has yet to win a game at home this season, owning a 4.50 ERA but has allowed three runs, or less, in each of his last six starts.
Both games of the Subway Series have gone under the total thus far. The Mets have been hitting lefties rather well this season, .262 average. Max Fried has only allowed a combined five runs in his nine starts this season along with a 1.44 ERA at home. The Yankees lead the league in average against lefties, hitting .277, which is why the total is higher. David Peterson has only allowed more than two runs once this season and is backed by the second-best bullpen in the NL with a 2.93 ERA.
Cleveland has been struggling offensively of late. They’re hitting .182 over the last seven days and five of their last six games have gone under nine runs. The Reds have continued to have difficulty hitting at home, .231 average as a team. Brady Singer is off his worst outing of the season, allowing seven earned runs in 2.1 innings on the road in Houston but has a favorable match against this Guardians lineup of late, despite their lineup having a good history against him.
Neither of these teams are hitting well right now. Chicago is only averaging six hits per game while also hitting .215 as a team against lefties on the season. The Reds are hitting .223 at home thus far as well as hitting .207 this month. There has been a lot of runs when Davis Martin has started this season with five of his eight starts having eight runs, or more. But the total has dropped a little since Chicago is hitting .203 over their last seven days and the Reds, .194.
Boston has won all four games that Brayan Bello has started this season. It’s a bullpen day for the Tigers who, currently, own the best bullpen ERA in the AL, 2.72. Detroit started out as the underdog and the line is moving in their favor even though they won by 12 runs yesterday. The Red Sox are hitting .244 on the road this season whereas Detroit is hitting .294 over the last 15 days while also having the third best home record in the majors, 15-5 SU.