Kind of fishy for Seattle to be away favorites since they’re 1-5 SU on the road to kick off the season. Bryan Woo takes the bump for the M’s, who’s off to a great start this season, statistically, while also being 3-0 SU with a 2.33 ERA and 16 strikeouts in three starts against San Diego. The Mariners bullpen is fully rested and Michael King is off the rocky start, with control issues and allowing a combined six runs in his last 11.2 innings.
Miami won the regular season series, 3-1 SU against the Hornets. Miami has ruled out Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith for tonight’s play-in game as well. These are two teams heading in opposite directions as the Heat stumbled their way into the postseason, while the Hornets have been playing their best basketball when it mattered most, despite an easy second-half schedule. Miami has struggled on the road this season, 17-24 SU, while the Hornets are 14-7 ATS as home favorites and the line continues to move in their favor.
St. Louis has been playing much better offensively, averaging more than six runs per game in their last three games. They’ve also done well batting against lefties as they’re facing Ranger Suarez, who had a rocky start to the season, allowing a combined eight runs in his two starts. The Red Sox only have one win on the road, averaging less than three runs per game in their six road games. Kyle Leahy had a rough start to the season at home, allowing four earned runs against the Mets, but Boston is only hitting .201 on the road thus far.
Cleveland has had a lot of success batting against lefties, hitting .306 on the road against them. Martin Perez struggled in his last start, giving up four runs in the loss, while the Braves have lost both of his starts thus far. Perez has also struggled against Cleveland, giving up at least three runs in two of his last three starts against them. With Atlanta’s Parker Messick has been dominant on the mound so far, giving up only one run in his first 11 innings and their bullpen is also performing better than the Braves.
The Knicks are fully healthy but the Celtics will be without Jaylen Brown tonight, in Jason Tatum’s return to MSG since his achilles injury. The Celtics are 5-2 to the under in their last seven games and have allowed 102 points or fewer in all but two of those contests. New York has gone under the total in five of its last six, allowing 111 points or fewer in all but two, as well. Both teams rank in top five in defensive efficiency and three of their last four meetings have gone under the total.
At first glance, this is a super fishy line. The Red Sox are going to get the benefit of the doubt at home with Garrett Crochet on the bump. Boston is also in desperate need of a win but face one of the hottest teams to start the season in the Brewers. Milwaukee is hitting .271 to start the year as compared to the Red Sox .231. Jacob Misiorowski has only allowed six hits through two starts and has a favorable matchup against sub-par Boston team in early April.
Minnesota is averaging 3.0 runs per game and the Royals only 2.2 runs per game to kick off the season and the wind will be blowing in tonight. This is Noah Cameron’s first start this year but owned a 2.93 home ERA last season. Minnesota only hit .235 last season on the road against lefties and only hitting .130 thus far, small sample size. However, the Twins are 12-35 SU in their last 47 games when facing a lefty.
Purdue has to cool off eventually after two of their best shooting performances of the season. The Longhorns don’t give up many three’s, only allowing their opponents to shoot them 33% of the time. Texas doesn’t shot many threes and even if they do, they're inconsistent. The Longhorns want to get to the free throw line but Purdue does a great job keeping their opponents off the stripe. Both teams like a slow half-court game and the total continues to drop.
Got to ride again with one of the Discords favorite teams. Tennessee’s offense can be very mediocre and inconsistent at times but their defense is something that the RedHawks have yet to see this season. Miami Ohio may have a difficulty time defending the glass but you can expect a similar game plan for Travis Steele and company, shooting a ton of three’s and they have shooters to do so. The RedHawks ball movement is still one of the best the country to be able to take advantage of a Rick Barnes team that is 18-28 ATS in the first weekend.
This is a contrast in styles matchup. Saint Mary’s typically dictates the pace whether they’re at home or on the road. The Gaels are used to controlling the pace with their history playing Gonzaga, and are still able to make those games into a half-court grinds. The Aggies can be inconsistent at times offensively and Saint Mary’s has the better defense and more efficient perimeter game to take advantage of the Aggies scoring droughts.
This may be the last time we can place a wager one of the Discords favorite teams this season. Yes, there are two other experts on them but we’re rolling with our beloved RedHawks. SMU's BJ Edwards is confirmed out tonight but Corey Washington is now playing. You can expect a rowdy bunch of Miami Ohio fans tonight as their campus is only 50 minutes away and Coach Steele hinted at the environment as a semi-home game. The pace will be there for the RedHawks efficient offense and even though they haven’t faced top-50 competition to this point, they should find success against SMU’s lackluster defense.
This is a fishy line especially since Utah Valley is currently on a 27-game winning streak at home. The Revolutionaries play at fast pace but Utah Valley can speed things up as well. George Washington also had to travel cross-country and play with the altitude in Orem. The Revolutionaries also only have three road wins on the season. The Wolverines have the more efficient offense and more disciplined on defense, with their ability to create turnovers. George Washington, with their fast tempo, are prone to turnovers and the Wolverines are 9th in the nation in that department.
It’s possible that Ole Miss runs out of gas with this being their fourth game in four days. But, the Rebels are playing their best basketball of the season despite a 4-14 SU conference record. They’re also the first team since Auburn in 2015 to win three straight to advance to the SEC semi’s. The Razorbacks are by far the more talented and physical team, pushing the pace. However, if Ole Miss was able to battle with the Crimson Tide’s pace then they should be ready for this one too. This is Ole Miss' season on the line so they should give it all they got.
Purdue got an easy victory over the Cornhuskers yesterday. UCLA is still dealing with an injury to Tyler Bilodeau, who’s expected to be back for the big dance. The Bruins won the only meeting between these two and that was at home. UCLA has struggled all season on the road but they’ve won four straight and are playing their best basketball of the season, led by Donovan Dent. The Bruins defend the perimeter better than Purdue and it appears Mick Cronin’s players have bought back in down the stretch.
Nevada won their regular season meeting against the Lopes. That game was a low-scoring game as well. Grand Canyon has one of the better defenses in the country, holding their opponents to less than 48% on the season. The Wolfpack want a slower paced game anyway as they rely heavily on the three and if they aren’t dropping, this could be another low scoring affair. The game has gone under the total in seven of their last eight games combined.