Bob's Past Picks
Kansas is a team that had even higher expectations than usual this season. The Utes has dropped three of their last four with an offense of very high variance. They’ve only been averaging 69 points over their last three games and less than 52% from the free throw line. Kansas is 2-3 ATS in their last five road games and 3-5 SU overall on the road. Despite all their struggles this season, the Utes still have a defense within the top 100 in efficiency and are holding teams to less than 67 points per game at home. They’re also 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS.
Idaho State is 8-4 ATS on the road and won the first meeting at home. The Bobcats are only 3-10 ATS in conference play but the line continues to move in their favor. Montana State has been shooting 37.1 from beyond the arc at home which is where the Bengals are near the bottom of the country in defending. The Bengals do have an edge on the boards, especially offensively. Montana State should have a better gameplan this time around to keep them off the glass as they hold their opponents to less than 65 points at home, on average.
These teams split the last season with the home team winning both games. The Crimson Tide’s three-point shooting hasn’t been as good as last season, but has been improving. This is a massive test since Auburn only allows six threes per game to their opponent. The Crimson Tide have the advantage in height at the rim, with three big men at 6’11. Auburn did have difficulty keeping the Gators off the offensive glass and Alabama is 15th in country in grabbing offensive boards. This should be a tight one and you can expect a hostile environment in Tuscaloosa to back this improved defense as compared to last season.
Georgia has dropped three of their last four and have had their ups and downs on offense of late. However, they just lost at home to the Bulldogs, who have the better overall defense than Missouri. They’re still 13-2 SU and 2-0 ATS as home underdogs. The Tigers are favorites on the road for the first time this season. Georgia will want a slower tempo game as they have been able to force turnovers in conference play, 5th in league in creating as compared to the Tigers 14th. Missouri also have the Crimson Tide on deck early next week.
Arizona is 11-1 SU at home, and this is the first time this season that they’ve been home underdogs. The Cougars have a one- day rest advantage and are the more efficient team on both sides of the ball. It’s tough to get in front of either one of these teams and the total indicates a lower scoring game. With that being said, defense travels. Houston is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this season. They take better care of the ball while also creating turnovers on defense, turning into transition buckets. Arizona does have the guard play to protect the perimeter but so does the Cougars and they defend the rim better than Arizona.
Samford is off a tough loss at home to the Mocs and now take on Wofford who’s 7-3 SU at home. However, following a loss this season, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU. They dominated the first meeting of the season and are now one game behind Chattanooga and UNC Greensboro in the SoCon. The Terriers have had a good season but when Samford’s offense is clicking, they’re a top 20 scoring offense. Their defense isn’t the same on the road, but this should be a focused spot off a loss and they’re the better free throw shooting team.
Purdue is off a road loss to the Wolverines and return home to play a Wisconsin team with a lot of experience, top 40 in the nation. The Boilermakers have a top 30 defense in terms of efficiency but when defending inside the arc, they’re allowing their opponent to shoot 54%. Wisconsin’s seven-footer, Steven Crowl, has a favorable matchup on the inside due to his size as the Boilermakers may the presence of Zach Edey in games like this. Wisconsin has covered five of the last six and are currently lead the nation in free throw percentage, if it comes down to it.
Western Illinois has lost 10 in a row and are 2-12 SU in conference. The Screaming Eagles have lost five of their last six and are 2-9 SU on the road this season. Southern Indiana won the first meeting of the season, at home, and the schedule for the Leathernecks only gets tougher, so this is a game they must have. Both teams are dependent on the three but Western Illinois has been more efficient of late, shooting 39.7% over their last three games as compared to the Screaming Eagles 31.8%.
To begin the season, Maryland struggled on the road, they’ve looked better but are still 2-5 SU. The Cornhuskers are 10-2 SU at home and have won four straight. They always have the advantage with their home court and appear to be in better current form. The Terrapins just blew a road game to Ohio State as they’re shooting less than 50% over their last three games and can’t be trusted on the road. Nebraska is without Berke Buyuktuncel tonight which hurts them inside, but the line hasn’t budged.
Grand Canyon won, and covered, the first meeting at home. The Texans seem to be a completely different team at home, as they’re 8-1 SU and 6-2 ATS, they just can’t play on the road. Grand Canyon is 1-4 ATS on the road and don’t seem like the dominate team they were a year ago. The Antelopes have an edge on the glass but this Tarleton is scrappy at home and even though they are inconsistent on offense, at times, they should get up for this one after being blown out in the first meeting.
UMKC won the first meeting of the season, but that was at home. On the road, the Roos are 2-9 SU while shooting less than 46% from the floor. South Dakota is averaging 88.9 points at home where they’re 11-1 SU, that one loss coming from North Dakota State. Even though they have one of the worst defenses in the country, the Coyotes play their best at home and are one of the best-scoring teams in the country.
There’s no doubt that Xavier is in better current form than the Friars. This is only the second time this season that Xavier has been an away favorite, winning by 14 at DePaul. Providence has struggled mightily offensively of late, failing to score above 65 points in their last two games. But, there’s something about the Friars as home underdogs as their defense plays much better holding opponents to 65 points per game while shooting 54.5% effectively. They’ve lost three straight but have covered seven of the last nine meetings in this series.
Rhode Island is 11-2 SU at home this season but only 4-5 ATS. The Bonnies have lost three of their last five and have been struggling to reach 60 points over their last few games. The line continues to move in St. Bonaventure’s favor but not buying into that. The Rams have had their struggles as well after a hot start to the season but now have a favorable matchup against this defense, allowing opponents to score 70 points, or more, over their last three games. Rhode Island has an above average perimeter defense along with the much deeper bench.
VMI is 10-2 ATS in conference play to this point. This seems like a pretty big number for a Spartans team that only won by three on the road against this team earlier in the season. However, VMI really struggles on the offensive glass and defending the perimeter, which is something that the Spartans are efficient at. VMI also takes a bunch of three’s and are only hitting them at 28.6% over their last three games, as compared to 37.7% for the Spartans at home.
Navy dominated the first meeting between these two on the road, winning by 15 points. The Mountain Hawks have really struggled on the road, 2-10 SU and 5-5 ATS. But they’ve been playing better of late, with a win over Colgate and a close overtime loss against American, leading the conference. The Mountains Hawks have a +8.3 point differential over their last three as compared to Navy’s -14. The Midshipmen don’t defend the arc well and that has been the strong point of Lehigh’s game of late.