Unofficially, when I've gone to Diamondbacks games in the last four years, Arizona wins at least at least 2/3 of the time. Now that's not why I'm picking them on Friday night, but yes, I'll be at the game. The DBacks had a successful 6-3 road trip back east and had a day of rest, whereas Toronto flew from Milwaukee to Phoenix on Thursday night. In terms of the starting pitchers, Michael Soroka is 3-0 this season for the home team, while Eric Lauer has a 7.82 ERA for Toronto. Arizona wins 7-4.
Who knew rain could figure prominently in a domed stadium? If you saw the Milwaukee-Toronto game on Wednesday night, you know what I'm talking about. Nonetheless, don't expect another 2-1 duel with Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat pitching in Thursday's matinee. Both teams have potent offenses and neither pitcher is off to a particularly good start in 2026. I think we see double digit runs in this contest.
There's a bit of risk here as the Athletics have only scored four total runs in their last three games (yet they're 2-1 record-wise). But the offense is set to break out a bit tonight against Kumar Rocker, considering current A's players are a whopping 10 for 17 against him (.588 average). Thus far in 2026, the Texas right-hander has given up five runs in 10 innings pitched but I wouldn't be surprised if he had worse fortune in a hitter-friendly park tonight in Sacramento.
He may not be the Pirates' ace (or anywhere close to it), but Mitch Keller is off to a flying start in 2026. Three starts, six innings each, and only two total runs given up. Since the beginning of last season, Keller is 13-6 to the over 16.5 outs when pitching at home. While the Nationals roster has a collective .321 average against Keller, I believe the Pirates starter continues his excellent start to 2026 and pitches at least six innings tonight.
Rice has been a star on the young season with 4 home runs, 12 RBIs and a batting average over .330. He hits in the middle of the Yankees potent lineup and is 1-for-2 lifetime with two RBIs against Rays starter Nick Martinez. With an RBI in 5 of 11 starts this season, I expect he'll do damage as the Bronx Bombers even their weekend series in Tampa Bay on Saturday.
On 4/21/25, Max Meyer faced the Reds at home, tossing six shutout innings and fanning an impressive 14 batters. Can he post a similar line at home on 4/9/26? Through two starts this season, Miami's right hander boasts a 10.24 K/9 ratio, so assuming he can go at least five innings, I feel good about his chances of reaching six strikeouts. It also doesn't hurt that Cincinnati is striking out nearly 10 times per game. I don't like the juice, but I like Meyer's chances of hitting this prop on Thursday afternoon.
I'm still stinging after watching what Michigan did to my Arizona team on Saturday night. The 2025-26 Wolverines just might be an all-timer of a team. But UConn's Dan Hurley is the best coach in college basketball and is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet Sixteen onward. I just can't be confident in a spread pick on the game. Instead, I'll be investing in the total and likely going against the public. I know that Michigan has scored 90+ points in all five tournament games, but I believe Dan Hurley finds a way to scheme a much slower pace to this contest. Also, dating back to 2017, National Championship unders are 6-2. Michigan 74, UConn 67.
I can't let my Final Four pick of Arizona be the last college basketball pick I make on the site this season. So let's look at the total in this Crown Championship Game. Oklahoma games have been over this total in 34 of 36 games in 2025-26. They have averaged nearly 83 points per game and surrendered 77. On the other side, West Virginia games are usually painful to watch but both in this tournament have ended in the upper-150s. Look for the Sooners to dictate the pace with the Mountaineers having to play catch up. I think this ends up in the 140s at minimum.
Do you really think I was going to submit a pick against my beloved Wildcats? Sadly, I won't be in Indianapolis at the Final Four but maybe that's a good thing for their chances. The last time I saw Arizona play in person was in February against Texas Tech, a 78-75 OT loss. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-0 including a win over Purdue in the Elite Eight. That's the same Boilermakers team who all-but-dominated Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. Ignore the Tommy Lloyd-to-UNC rumors, this Wildcats team is focused and ready for their moment. Either way, the winner of this epic matchup will go on to win the National Championship. And that will be Arizona by the thinnest of margins, 82-79.
I think the wrong team is favored here. UConn already won this matchup by 13 in November and enters off one of the most stunning victories any of us have ever seen. Tarris Reed Jr. has been an absolute beast down low and picking against Dan Hurley in the Tournament is always a losing idea. He's now 14-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, which is truly incredible. With that said, the Huskies have encountered a much more difficult path than the Fighting Illini and I also believe they're the better team top to bottom. Like the last matchup, I'm not sure this game will be all that close. UConn 74, Illinois 65.
Trevor Rogers was a dynamo at Camden Yards last season, going 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA in seven starts. He went at least six innings in 6 of 7 home starts and went seven innings on Opening Day vs. Minnesota. With Baltimore looking to avoid the sweep against the Rangers, expect Rogers to go deeper into the game and give his team another quality start.
Maybe it's a mistake to keep fading Duke but I plan on doing so. Though they rallied late against St. John's, the Red Storm registered a fairly easy cover (+6.5). Now Duke faces the best tournament coach in recent memory, Dan Hurley, who is 13-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward. I see this as a one possession game either way so I believe there's value in taking the points here. UConn is veteran-laden and has the size to match up with Duke inside. I'll also be sprinkling the Huskies on the money line.
As SportsLine's resident Arizona alum and diehard, I have to make a pick on this Elite Eight matchup, don't I? Purdue is really good - they're efficient on offense and can stifle teams defensively. But my Wildcats are on a mission to make the Final Four (and beyond) for the first time since 2001. I expect both teams to slow their offenses down a bit from what we saw in the last round and the only reason I think this total gets close-ish to the number is because of free throws at the end. Not playing this for a full unit just in case and if you can buy the number up a few points, don't hesitate. Arizona 77, Purdue 71.
Illinois' offense is potent, averaging more than 84 points per game this season. Brad Underwood's team also scored at least 70 points in 24 straight games before the offensive slugfest against an elite Houston defense in the Sweet Sixteen. In the meantime, 8 of the last 10 Iowa games have gone over this total. These two teams combined for 144 in January's road victory by the Fighting Illini. My prediction isn't far off from that contest: Illinois 77, Iowa 68 with the over hitting fairly comfortably.
PCA is 7 for 9 lifetime vs. Miles Mikolas with five home runs and 6 RBIs. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field and Chicago's new $115 million man hitting in the heart of the order, I expect the Cubs' centerfielder to drive in multiple runs on Saturday.