Jalen Coker is operating at less than 100% …

Darius Acuff Jr. is averaging over 20 PPG this season and is certainly a talented scorer, however he’s been inefficient and struggles with shot selection. It also doesn’t help things that he plays on a team that plays absolutely no defense where he has a green light to chuck. This looks like a natural spot to fade him a very good Spurs team in a game with serious blowout potential. The Spurs are also likely to make life very difficult for the talented rookie.

Darryn Peterson has had an underwhelming start to his NBA career but he’s locked into a high usage role on an uptempo offense and I expect much better days ahead, starting tonight against the Grizzlies. This game should be competitive and features a 237.5 point total. I expect Peterson to be much more aggressive looking for his shot tonight. This number feels much closer to his floor in what should be a good matchup for the talented rookie.

This is a great spot for all Packers pass catchers but especially Tucker Kraft who just so happens to be one of the better positive regression candidates this season. Kraft has been somewhat inconsistent and yet to have a true ceiling game but has strongly underlying usage metrics and gets a mouth watering matchup against a Lions defense that is ranked 29th in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to surrendering the most yards to opposing Tight Ends this season. Couple that with what should be an optimal environment for passing volume and this one checks all the boxes.

This one is painful but it’s such a reasonable number for a RB who has been fed. It’s also a great matchup for J.K. Dobbins in what should be a competitive game environment. The Broncos offense has been hyper conservative with Sean Payton at the helm and I think we could see some improved efficiency from Dobbins here, who is clearly trusted.

Despite playing only 12 snaps, Marvin Harrison was targeted 4 times which he turned into 3 receptions for 34 yards in his Texans debut. It seems likely he’s going to play a lot more snaps against the Giants and the Texans are clearly prioritizing getting him targets which makes sense considering the draft capital used to acquire his services. This number is too low for a player likely to get 5-7 targets who seemingly should be highly motivated.

It doesn’t get much tougher from a matchup standpoint than facing the Vikings defense. Daniel Jones will have his work cut out for himself against a ferocious Minnesota defense that ranks 1st in defensive EPA, in addition to 1st in EPA per dropback, 1st in Success Rate, 1st in DVOA, long story short this is the best pass defense in the league by a wide margin and have had an extra week to prepare for a QB who is really struggling. The Colts pass catching group is also banged up and the teams are opting to run heavily against the Vikings. This is a spot where I expect Daniel Jones to completely bottom out.

This is a big line for Jaden McDaniels who finds himself on a Wolves team surrounded by high usage players. It’s also a difficult matchup as Orlando has historically defending the wings very effectively. There are no shortage of high volume scorers on the Wolves.

Anthony Davis looked sensational in his Washington Wizards debut and I like his chances of having another big performance. He was receiving MVP chants and while that may be a little premature, I believe as long as he’s healthy he’s set for big production as the clear focal point of Washington’s offense. Having a legitimate point guard in Trae Young will also be helpful in getting him easy looks. I’d play this at 22.5 as well.

I like this spot for Giannis making his debut with the Miami Heat tonight in what could be a fun game. The Wolves added additional offensive firepower and pace after acquiring LaMelo Ball in the offseason. I expect Minnesota's offense to improve and Giannis finds himself as the centerpiece of a Heat team that’s lacking scoring.

Jalen Williams had an injury marred disappointing 2025-26 season where he was clearly operating at less than 100% after finishing All-NBA Third Team the season prior. Williams looked like that version of himself in the preseason and I expect him to return to form. He should be locked into a high usage role in a game that projects to be competitive and a potential WCF preview.

Brock Purdy has been one of the best QBs in the league this season and now he gets a tasty matchup against a Commanders pass funnel ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback having surrendered the 4th most passing yards. This game projects to be high scoring and I expect SF to have trouble running the football here.

Michael Wilson is taking on arguably the best secondary in the NFL when he faces the Rams on Sunday. Both Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie have been outstanding and are arguably the best perimeter corner tandem in the league. Jacoby Brissett is not playing well and could possibly be benched. Also the subtraction of Marvin Harrison might actually work against Wilson considering that Kendrick Bourne has been a much more effective target earner when he’s been on the field and he’s likely to see his role expand sans Harrison. This is arguably the most difficult draw that an outside WR can get.

I’m double dipping here fading Michael Wilson as he’s set to face an incredibly stingy Rams secondary and is set to see a ton of Trent McDuffie who has been the NFL’s best corner according to PFF, in addition to every defensive passing metric. Not only will Wilson face the toughest assignment but he’ll do so without Marvin Harrison which actually might hurt his cause. Harrison was a complete non factor and thus Wilson has been heavily targeted. Meanwhile Kendrick Bourne has outplayed and earned a lot more targets whenever he’s been on the field and his role is set to expand sans Harrison.

I can’t believe I’m backing two offensive players on the Titans this week, but alas, here we are. Wan’Dale Robinson has been solid despite playing in an anemic passing offense with downright dreadful QB play. That being said, his underlying metrics are strong and he gets a nice matchup here. The Colts have surrendered a ton of production to opposing slot WRs this season, partly due to have a strong tandem of outside corners in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. Colts nickel back Justin Walley has really struggled and has proven to be a major liability. At just 36.5 yards I couldn’t resist considering there is likely to be trailing gamescript and Wan’Dale has been earning targets.