The Spurs will look to De’Aaron Fox to carry their offensive tonight as they get ready for a pivotal Game 3 against the Blazers in Portland. While Fox’s numbers are fairly pedestrian this season, he really thrived in games without Wemby averaging a robust 24.6 PPG, compared to just 16 PPG when the pair shared the court. I consider Fox one of the best crunch time scorers in the league and expect him to be very aggressive looking for his shot tonight.

The Houston Rockets and Kevin Durant return to their home court with a surprising 2-0 deficit. While I’m not entirely surprised, Kevin Durant only appeared in one game thus far and took just 12 field goal attempts. I expect Durant to be far more aggressive tonight and I was encouraged by his playing time, logging over 40 minutes in Game 2. KD averaged 26 PPG in the regular season so we’re getting a sizable discount on this scoring prop.

This is a heavily discounted combo line for James Harden who averaged a combined 12.8 Reb+Ast in the regular season. Harden is still a nightly threat to compile double digit assists. My model projects Harden at 13.1 Reb+Ast which is a sizable edge here. I’d play this for a full unit at 11.5 as well.

Cade Cunningham certainly did his part in Game 1’s defeat against the Magic, scoring 39 points, while chipping 5 boards and 4 assists. As a result we’re seeing an enormous combination line as Cade’s combo line is usually set between 37.5 to 39.5. While Cade is capable of scoring 35-40 on any given night, the Pistons are at their best when he’s getting his teammates involved. Tobias Harris was the only other Piston to score in double figures in Game 1, despite six Pistons averaging at least 10 PPG in the regular season.

Despite losing Game 1 to the Spurs, Deni Avdija stuffed the stat sheet and compiled 45 combined PRA while logging just under 40 minutes. Avdija has eclipsed this combo line in eight consecutive games dating back to the regular season. Avdija is playing big minutes and looks fully healthy right now. I expect his usage rate to continue to spike in Game 2. I would play this combo line at 37.5 as well.

This is a hefty scoring line for Jalen Duren in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup. Duren has improved as a scorer, however he averages 18.9 PPG while sharing the court with Cade Cunningham, compared to 22 PPG without him this season. He’s facing an Orlando squad that has been very good against opposing Centers.

James Harden has seen his numbers decline since joining the Cavaliers ahead of the trade deadline. Harden is sharing the court with another high volume player that needs the ball in his hands in order to be most effective. In a game that projects to be low scoring and paced downs this looks like a natural spot to fade Harden, coupled with him having struggled throughout the playoffs during his career.

This is a nice discount on Franz Wagner’s scoring line. Wagner missed the bulk of the season but returned late in the season and both his usage and playing time steadily increased culminating in two performances where he eclipsed this line to close out the regular season. I expect Franz to get a nice bump in playing time and I like his chances of scoring 20+ points.

This is a big line for Dillon Brooks who has averaged less than 15 PPG since returning to Phoenix’s lineup after missing over a month of action. Brooks only eclipsed this line once in his previous six appearances. This game features two teams that like to play slow coupled with a low projected total of just 218.5 points. The Suns don’t rely on Brooks nearly as much as they did early in the season prior to the emergence of Jalen Green. I would play this line down to 18.5 for a full unit and ultimately expect this to close between 17.5 and 18.5.

This looks like a good spot to fade rookie Kon Knueppel who is having a fantastic season, however his production has fallen off recently. Knueppel is averaging 16.7 PPG since March 1st and while he’s still playing well his efficiency has taken a hit as well. He gets a very tough matchup against a Detroit Pistons squad that is very good defensively. I also expect this game to be paced down.

This is a big combo line for RJ Barrett who is averaging a combined 26.3 PRA on the season. While this is definitely a good matchup on paper against a Heat team that hasn’t been particularly good defensively, it is a must win game for both teams and should be a playoff atmosphere. The Raptors are also as healthy as they have been all season long. Ultimately this number is a couple ticks too high for a guy that doesn’t create a lot of offense.

I often talk about fading the hot hand when a guy is performing above expectations, thus pointing towards regression. I believe that to be the case with Jrue here as we’re getting a sizable number on this scoring line. This would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup as well, against a Spurs squad that is excellent limiting opposing guards in the scoring department.

Dillon Brooks has struggled since returning to the Suns lineup and considering the emergence of Jalen Green, I’m not sure there’s enough consistent volume for Brooks to support scoring lines this high. Couple that with a difficult matchup against a very good Houston defense in a game that’s expected to be paced down. This seems like a natural spot to fade Brooks and would require a bump in volume to eclipse this scoring line. I’d play this down to 16.5 as well.

Cooper Flagg is having an incredible rookie season and all but locked up the award after his previous two performances where he combined for 96 points on strong efficiency. With that being said, this is a massive scoring line for almost any player and at this number he is an automatic fade for me. Especially when you factor in the matchup is tough, there is blowout risk, and he’s likely to cool off. I’d play this for a full unit at 27.5 as well.

This is a large number for Bam Adebayo who has struggled from an efficiency standpoint since his record setting 83 point performance against a G-League Wizards team. I also consider it a difficult matchup against an above average defensive team, who play at a slower pace, and defender opposing Centers well.