PJ Washington plays big minutes. …

Kawhi Leonard is still elite.

Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee injury. ..

This is a large number for Domantas Sabonis who averages 19.1 PPG on the season. I also consider this a difficult matchup against a Dallas team that has a trio of quality frontcourt defenders in Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively Jr. it’s also worth noting Sabonis averages only 16.9 PPG in 11 games he appeared without Malik Monk this season. It’s also going to be a paced down environment with fewer possessions.

This is a big line for Brandon Podziemski who has appeared in 0 playoff games and just a single Play-In game. We know that in the playoffs teams typically play slower and games feature fewer possessions. I also expect the ball to in the hands of Steph and Jimmy quite a bit and Podz usage may decrease tonight. Either way this line feels a point or two too high.

This is a huge line for Shane Baz who to his credit has pitched very well in a pair of starts this season. With that being said, he has run hot on Ks considering he’s not generating very many whiffs. This line is 1 K too high for Baz, even in what is a quality matchup.

This is a must win game for Michael Porter Jr. and the Denver Nuggets who are still fighting for playoff seeding. I also like that we’re working with a 240+ point total in what should be a competitive paced up environment. MPJ averages over 20 PPG with Jamal Murray missing in the lineup this season, in addition to averaging more points at home versus on the road. I’d play this up to 19.5 for a full unit.

Ja Morant is looking like an All-NBA guard and MVP candidate since the Grizzlies moved on from Head Coach Taylor Jenkins. Morant has cleared this line in 7 of his previous 10 appearances and has seen his usage and minutes spike as the Grizz look to avoid the Play-In. This is a must win game for both teams and I expect Morant to play upwards of 38-40 minutes.

Harrison Barnes has exploded over his last four outings totaling 84 points and making a whopping 13 of 25 three point field goals. While Barnes has stepped up, he’s an incredibly streaky and inconsistent scorer and we’re getting an inflated line here in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup. In addition to ranking 4th in total defense, the Clippers guard the perimeter very well surrendering the third lowest three point field goal percentage. The Spurs are heavy underdogs tonight as well which could result in fewer minutes for Barnes. I’d play this up to (-175).

This is a sizable discount for Anthony Edwards who I believe has cemented himself as a top 5 player in the league. Ant has been on a tear his last three games and it would not surprise me to see him raise his game to another level in the playoffs as the team gears up for another deep run. I have him projected at over 39 PRA tonight. I would play this at 36.5 for a full unit.

Matas Buzelis has been playing great basketball for the young Bulls, however this is a large line for the exciting rookie. Buzelis has displayed tantalizing upside and looks to have All-Star upside but look a lot of rookies still struggles from a consistency standpoint. This looks like a good spot to fade him on the road, versus a good Cleveland defense, that defends opposing wings well, in addition to Chicago being double digit underdogs. Considering there are lots of ways Buzelis stays under this line, we’ll take our chances here.

This is shaping up to be one of the greatest MVP races ever as SGA and Nikola Jokic are having two of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history. While Jokic is playing outstanding basketball, SGA has been brilliant on both ends of the court. We’re getting a discount on this scoring line as he averages 32.6 PPG and will be looking to put a bow in this potential Western Conference Finals preview.

Right back to the fade Giddey well, who to his credit has certainly made some strides when it comes to his shooting and overall offensive development. However he’s still shaky from the perimeter and couple that with an opponent that plays slow and defends opposing guards well, this is a natural spot to fade Giddey. I’d play this down to 19.5.

Deni Avdija is playing some great basketball and made me look a bit foolish when he erupted for a Luka-esque stat line is his last outing. Well he’s gotten close to a Luka level combo line. I feel confidently that this may be the only time we ever see Avdija north of a 40 PRA line in his career. I’d play this down to 39.5.

Locking this prop in as I expect it to close around 31.5 or even 32.5. This is a must win game for Giannis and company and while the Sixers are essentially a G League roster, their opponents are averaging over 125 PPG over their last 10 games. Giannis should have his way in this matchup and he’s more than capable of getting home in a blowout. Giannis has scored 30+ in five consecutive games.