Brandon Podziemski has been rolling for a short handed Golden State team that’s been without Steph Curry since the end of January. Podz is a versatile combo guard, however we’re fading an inflated combo line as a result of some recent big performances. Podz has benefitted from some paced up matchups which is unlikely to be the case tonight against a sluggish Clippers team in a game environment that’s projected to be low scoring. I’d play this down to 26.5.
The Grizzlies are in in full tank mode as they look to position themselves for the future. Scottie Pippen Jr. is currently their starting PG, however he’s on a strict minutes cap as a result of coming back from an injury. Considering he’s unlikely to see more than 24 minutes, this is a super lofty combo line for a player that typically doesn’t shoot a ton.
The Spurs are absolutely rolling right now having failed to lose a game in the month of February. They’re getting a myriad of a contributions and are deep with a very balanced starting five. Devin Vassell has quietly been playing very well and has eclipsed 12 points in four of his previous five appearances, while averaging 16.6 PPG over that sample. I’ve also been very encouraged by his playing time. Vassell should handle 30+ minutes in a game that projects to be competitive.
Naji Marshall looks poised to carry the load for a Mavericks team missing Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, and Daniel Gafford who account for a combined 42 PPG and 20 RPG. Marshall has seamlessly stepped into a high usage role and his scoring average increases from 14.5 PPG to 19 PPG without Cooper Flagg in the lineup. This is a great matchup against a Kings team that ranks 29th in Defensive Efficiency and bleeds production to high usage players.
This is simply a ton of output for Al Horford at this stage of his career. Horford is still a useful role player and capable of giving a team a good 12-15 minutes but expecting him to play 25+ minutes and provide much scoring is unlikely. While this is a good matchup, I don’t that thats necessarily applicable for Big Al, whose usage is likely to remain the same regardless of opponent. I’d play this down to 20.5.
We’re getting a discount on this combination line for Paolo Banchero who has seen his scoring production dip this season. Paolo has still looked dominant at times, and the Magic will need their franchise player to produce at a high level in order to keep them in the mix in the East. Without Franz Wagner in the lineup, Paolo’s usage spikes and this looks like a potential ceiling game against a Lakers team that ranks bottom five in Defensive Efficiency. Look for Paolo to stuff the stat sheet in a game that is projected to be paced up and high scoring.
De’Anthony Melton has eclipsed this line in three consecutive games but I believe this is a significantly inflated line considering his playing time, role, and usage. Melton hovers between 22-25 minutes and while he’s never been afraid to shoot, this is projected to be a paced down environment. I would also argue that Melton looks like a regression candidate as well.
This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Kenneth Walker against a New England front seven that has been dominant. With a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane in the fold, no one has been able to effectively run against the Patriots. I am jumping on this early as I anticipate this line moving south as we approach kickoff. I consider this New England run defense to be the very best in the league. The Patriots season long metrics don’t reflect how truly elite their run defense is.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is enjoying a strong season and has more often than not functioned as the 76ers third leading scorer behind Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Oubre has thrived in this role and is routinely playing huge minutes which I expect to continue now that Paul George will be missing from the lineup and is serving a suspension. Oubre attempted double digit threes in his last outing and I expect his volume to continue to spike considering his role and usage. I’d play this to (-160).
The Hornets have won 7 consecutive games and Brandon Miller has been the focal point of the offense having been the teams high scorer in 5 of those games while averaging 22 PPG in January and increasing his scorer average every subsequent month. Miller is a natural scorer and prior to his last performance had eclipsed this in 10 consecutive games. Look for Miller to once again lead the way in a game that projects to be competitive between two of the hottest teams in the Association.
DeAndre Ayton has always been on talent however his effort and attitude leave a lot to be desired. This season has been a microcosm for Aytons career as it’s been filled with highs, lows, and everything in between, while Ayton currently find himself in a serious funk. This number is simply too low for a player capable of scoring 20+ points whenever he is engaged, in an offense featuring two of the most brilliant playmakers in the league, while Ayton routinely logs 30+ minutes.
Andrew Nembhard has been playing very good basketball for a Pacers team that has been playing much better as of late after a disastrous start to their season. Nembhard has served as their primary playmaker and is averaging 9 APG, in addition to 4 RPG in the month of January, while clearing this line in 12 of his last 14 appearances.
Six year veteran Saddiq Bey is enjoying his best season yet and is averaging a career best 16.5 PPG culminating in Bey scoring 20+ in 5/6 games. With that being said, Bey appears to be a regression candidate and he has been shooting a blistering 50% from three on 42 attempts over that six game sample. Bey is a career 35% shooter and he is at best the third scoring option on the Pelicans, meaning his volume could dwindle. I also like the fact they’re facing a Hornets team that plays slow coupled with being 6.5 point underdogs which provides some blowout potential.
We’re getting a sizable discount on this scoring line for Karl Anthony Towns. He will face a Lakers team that has suspect interior defense and has been vulnerable to opposing Centers. This game projects to be competitive and I think KAT bounces back with a solid scoring performance.
Naji Marshall is returning to the lineup after a brief absence that saw him miss just 1 game. Marshall has proven to be a good player capable of taking on a high usage role with above average efficiency. We’re getting a discount on this line and I also like his combo lines as well if you don’t have access to 15.5 points.